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17-09-2021, 08:12 AM
New modelling application can help cut Covid-19 infections, deaths by up to 89%
Clara Chong
PUBLISHED SEP 15, 2021, 2:16 PM SGT
SINGAPORE - Predictive computer modelling developed by scientists from Nanyang Technological University (NTU) can propose strategies that could have reduced Covid-19 infections and deaths by 59 per cent to 89 per cent in countries studied.
The model takes just a few minutes to produce results, once data has been fed in. It was tested on real pandemic data from four large Asian countries for the whole of 2020.
The model requires at least three days of historical data before predictions can be made. If more historical data is available, the model can be more accurate.
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From the data, the model could have helped reduce the number of infections and deaths by up to 76 per cent in Japan, 65 per cent in South Korea, 59 per cent in Pakistan, and 89 per cent in Nepal, the NTU scientists say. Across the four countries, this works out to an average of 72 per cent.
The model has not been used to predict Singapore's Covid-19 numbers because it will not be as accurate as it is for larger, less densely populated countries with more confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths.
......
The model was able to predict the daily increases of confirmed cases and deaths with an accuracy of 95 per cent, when compared with the number of actual cases.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/n...-deaths-by
Clara Chong
PUBLISHED SEP 15, 2021, 2:16 PM SGT
SINGAPORE - Predictive computer modelling developed by scientists from Nanyang Technological University (NTU) can propose strategies that could have reduced Covid-19 infections and deaths by 59 per cent to 89 per cent in countries studied.
The model takes just a few minutes to produce results, once data has been fed in. It was tested on real pandemic data from four large Asian countries for the whole of 2020.
The model requires at least three days of historical data before predictions can be made. If more historical data is available, the model can be more accurate.
......
From the data, the model could have helped reduce the number of infections and deaths by up to 76 per cent in Japan, 65 per cent in South Korea, 59 per cent in Pakistan, and 89 per cent in Nepal, the NTU scientists say. Across the four countries, this works out to an average of 72 per cent.
The model has not been used to predict Singapore's Covid-19 numbers because it will not be as accurate as it is for larger, less densely populated countries with more confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths.
......
The model was able to predict the daily increases of confirmed cases and deaths with an accuracy of 95 per cent, when compared with the number of actual cases.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/n...-deaths-by
