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UMNO emphasises “a lot on party hierarchy”, said Dr Lau, adding that Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and deputy president Mohamad Hasan are ahead of Mr Ismail Sabri in the party.

“According to UMNO's convention and practice, I do not see how the number three can continue to be the prime minister,” he added. “So in this coming election, although they promised (Mr Ismail Sabri) to be the prime minister candidate, I do not think this will be the way.

“Who is going to be the prime minister, in my opinion, depends on how many seats BN manages to win.” 

Former Prime Minister and long-time Pagoh MP Muhyiddin Yassin, who is the PN chairman and Bersatu president, will face a fierce three-cornered fight to retain that seat in Johor. He will be up against Umno Supreme Council member Razali Ibrahim and PH’s Iskandar Shah.

Johor alone, 26 parliamentary seats are up for grabs, with BN looking to win big in the frontline state. But analysts are unsure if Johoreans would turn up to vote at the Nov 19 polls.

At the earlier Johor state election in March, about 50 per cent of eligible voters came out to vote, one of the lowest voter turnouts in history. This led to a two-thirds majority win by BN then.

But PN could pull a surprise there at the federal election.

“They were second in terms of the popular votes that they managed together (at the state election).