[sgbuffett]

Gabriel Yap pattern always the same....after something happens he claims to have predicted it earlier in one of his many seminars, interviews, or something he said earlier. And that his students "already know" because he taught them.

Never in his any of his videos does he say anything about what is going to happen...if you want to know pay for his $500 seminar

Higher rates have pummelled reits. Because reits borrow money some did worse others did better due to gearing level.

Going ahead what moves reits up or down is how rates move. How high they stay foe how long? Is anyones guess.. So we cannot predict how reits will move. We only know their size of their discount to book, DPU trends etc. Like many investments often you are better off buying when there is fear and selling. You can still lose but at least you avoid the froth and fats...you are eating the lean meat.

Teh fed is down to one more hike at most as the 30yr Uas treasury yield has suddenly move up alot. This signal danger stress and very tight money conditions. This is kindergarten economics.  So we are at the end of the rate hikes and the uncertainty is how long such high rates stay. Some say 3 months some say 3yrs. 

I am not a fan of reits.....not that they are bad just that most of the time there are better investments than reits:

1. Reits always have debts reaching 40% ...and always face stress during downturns and high rate environments.Tpday we are seeing both that's why reits have fallen so sharply.

2. They pay out most of their earnings as DPU leaving little for rainy days. 90% payout ratio.

3. Unless there is a surge in their property valuation they always never see debt reduction.

4. They raise money at the worse time diluting shareholder issuing rights at the worst times. 

In countries where reits perform spectacular well is when there is long term appreciation of their assets ...their 30M asset after 10yrs become 60M. But Singaoore reits they perform well as a basket only  after some crisis or sell off ...e.g covid in march 2020. 2009. 

So the strategy is not to buy reits regularly but only when they are under stress and has sold off. The exact timing is hard but usually after 30% fall you can start looking.