[victortan]

3 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving

1. Final Pre-Halving Retrace

A Pre-Halving retrace tends to occur a 28 to 14 days before the Halving event itself (dark blue circle)

In 2016, this Pre-Halving retrace was -38% deep and lasted 3-4 days

In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was -20% deep and lasted 56 days (8 weeks)

Currently, $BTC is just over 14 days away from the Halving, pulled back -18% in total over the past couple of weeks

If the Pre-Halving Retrace bottom is in...

BTC therefore would've repeated a lot of qualities from the Pre-Halving Retrace of 2020

After all, the most recent retrace was -18% deep and lasted 7 days or so

However, Bitcoin in 2024 also repeated some 2016-like qualities as well

Because Bitcoin began its Pre-Halving Retrace ~30 days before the Halving whereas in 2016 Bitcoin began its retrace 28 days before the Halving

As a result, it looks like Bitcoin may be repeating pieces of both 2016 and 2020 Pre-Halving price tendencies

But the goal of a Pre-Halving Retrace is three-fold:

a) To offer one final bargain-buying opportunity in the Pre-Halving period

b) To form the Range Low of the future Re-Accumulation Range

c) To set up the next phase in the Bitcoin Halving Cycle: "Re-Accumulation" (red box)

With the latest rejection at ~$70,000...

It's possible that we may now know where the Range High of the Re-Accumulation Range may be

As a result, it's possible that this Pre-Halving Retrace period has already established the very beginnings of the Re-Accumulation phase

2. Re-Accumulation

The beginning of the "Re-Accumulation" phase occurs once the Pre-Halving Retrace has bottomed

In other words, the bottom of the Pre-Halving Retrace historically becomes the bottom of the Re-Accumulation Range (red)

It's still uncertain if the Pre-Halving Retrace bottom is in

However, because a Pre-Halving Retrace has occurred already...

It is possible that Bitcoin is slowly transitioning away from its Pre-Halving Retrace phase into its "Re-Accumulation" phase (red)

The goal now is for Bitcoin to move sideways going into the Halving and beyond

The Re-Accumulation phase can last multiple weeks and even up to 150 days (i.e 5 months)

Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving

However, in this cycle it is the very first time that this Re-Accumulation Range is developing around the New All Time High area

As a result, this Re-Accumulation Range may simply take the shape of a regular sideways range like we've seen throughout the cycle thus far and may not last very long before additional uptrend continuation

3. Parabolic Uptrend

Once Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation area breakout into the parabolic uptrend (green)

It is during this phase Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth into a parabolic uptrend

Historically, this phase has lasted just over a year (~385 days) however with a potential Accelerated Cycle occurring right now, this figure may get cut in half in this market cycle

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin