20-08-2024, 11:17 AM
As much as we like to decouple but it will never work.
USD is mostly held by everyone. Everyone's economic growth is tied to US consumption. That 300mil consumption based has yet to be replaced by anyone. No where else in this world can we find another consumer base to take up the slack. If you notice, all other economies and their growth is dependent on USA market. If USA is down everyone goes with them. A cheap USD actually is a worse off position for everyone over time, a strong USD is actually a better option for our growth.
Go back to your ISLM model and see it at a global len. Without that balance, we are all fucked. USA does the consumption so that everyone else does the production to grow our economy. In the last 4 decades, China took most of the manufacturing role (and gains) that led to their massive speedy economic development much like what SEA had before the opening up of China.
We rather pray USA continues to consume and we snatch the pie from China, than a downturn starting in USA and a cheaper USD...
USD is mostly held by everyone. Everyone's economic growth is tied to US consumption. That 300mil consumption based has yet to be replaced by anyone. No where else in this world can we find another consumer base to take up the slack. If you notice, all other economies and their growth is dependent on USA market. If USA is down everyone goes with them. A cheap USD actually is a worse off position for everyone over time, a strong USD is actually a better option for our growth.
Go back to your ISLM model and see it at a global len. Without that balance, we are all fucked. USA does the consumption so that everyone else does the production to grow our economy. In the last 4 decades, China took most of the manufacturing role (and gains) that led to their massive speedy economic development much like what SEA had before the opening up of China.
We rather pray USA continues to consume and we snatch the pie from China, than a downturn starting in USA and a cheaper USD...