22-08-2024, 01:56 PM
Khamenei’s calculus: Iran supreme leader faces a bitter choice on Israel. All eyes are on Iran and its possible retaliation for an assassination – blamed on Israel – in its capital. In the shadowy corridors of Tehran’s power, the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the end of July – widely believed to have been carried out by Israel – shattered a fragile equilibrium.
Timing of escalation in the longstanding conflict between Iran & Israel could not have been worse, newly sworn-in President Masoud Pezeshkian still getting used to his role when geopolitical fireball was hurled into his lap. ForI ran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the assassination of the Palestinian group’s leader was more than a provocation, it was an existential challenge.
The explosion that killed Haniyeh, which Iran believed was a missile launched from within its own borders, was a breach of sovereignty that angered Tehran and put Khamenei’s 2003 fatwa prohibiting the manufacture, use and storage of nuclear weapons under increased scrutiny.
Strategic implications: The high-level debate whether Khamenei’s fatwa on nuclear weapons served Iran’s strategic priorities was already continuing prior to Haniyeh’s assassination, a senior Iranian official who spoke to Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity. Khamenei has steered Iran through global shifts from the Cold War’s end to the rise of United States unipolarity and conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria – and through the fraught history of Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers.
Now, at 85, he needs to secure the future of the Islamic republic, a critical juncture that requires more than manoeuvres in the “grey zone” – the space between war and peace that Iran has traditionally used to exert pressure on its adversaries.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/...-re-israel
Timing of escalation in the longstanding conflict between Iran & Israel could not have been worse, newly sworn-in President Masoud Pezeshkian still getting used to his role when geopolitical fireball was hurled into his lap. ForI ran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the assassination of the Palestinian group’s leader was more than a provocation, it was an existential challenge.
The explosion that killed Haniyeh, which Iran believed was a missile launched from within its own borders, was a breach of sovereignty that angered Tehran and put Khamenei’s 2003 fatwa prohibiting the manufacture, use and storage of nuclear weapons under increased scrutiny.
Strategic implications: The high-level debate whether Khamenei’s fatwa on nuclear weapons served Iran’s strategic priorities was already continuing prior to Haniyeh’s assassination, a senior Iranian official who spoke to Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity. Khamenei has steered Iran through global shifts from the Cold War’s end to the rise of United States unipolarity and conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria – and through the fraught history of Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers.
Now, at 85, he needs to secure the future of the Islamic republic, a critical juncture that requires more than manoeuvres in the “grey zone” – the space between war and peace that Iran has traditionally used to exert pressure on its adversaries.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/...-re-israel