![](https://i.imgur.com/CLvY2jA.png")
07-03-2023, 11:09 AM
The key thing isn’t 200 vs 5000 year old, more like the trajectory and experiences of the US is much like a novice trader who happened to start trading at the start of the bull market and after 10 years of success conclude he is the next Warren Buffet.
Such a trader is both extremely lucky and unlucky at the same time. Lucky because he made money relatively easily for quite a while, unlucky because he was never put to the test of a downturn because of his optimal entry timing.
Since independence in 1776, US location made it hard and unfeasible for any of the European powers to mount a serious sustained assault though there were some short skirmishes with Canada / Mexico. All the way from 1776 to 1914 they were either left to their own devices to develop and/or tagged along the colonization gravy train by riding on the coat tails of the then superpowers UK and France.
US totally evaded WW1 and only joined in towards the end in 1917 on the victorious allied side thereby reaping some quick wins and war spoils with almost zero effort. In WW2 they only joined in halfway in 1942 after Germany, UK, USSR, China, Japan have all beaten themselves into exhaustion.
As the “final” country to beat Germany and Japan, this has also allowed the US to reap big gains on geopolitics, technology, human talent and economy far in excess of their contributions to the war effort. Thereafter from 1949 to 1989 with the advent of nukes, they never fought any major war which devastated former superpowers before them.
Then came the collapse of USSR and the US reached the pinnacle of its power during the 1990s. This was a time in which they went into Titanic mode and really believed nonsense like The End of History whereby US alone is all that mankind can ever hope to achieve.
Just like the trader who will eventually meet downturn and adverse markets, US is now beginning to step into this zone. We are now seeing this paradox of an experienced trader on paper who supposedly has 10+ years trading experience behaving like a novice who has never traded in a difficult situation. All the silly newbie errors are now being committed by a country that supposedly inherited its Anglo culture from the British Empire and has like 250 years of its own national history.
During the downturn of the British Empire and French Republic, these countries at least had the common sense to disengage and shed their non-core assets relatively peacefully in order to preserver whatever is left of their influence. UK and France might not have been superpowers since 1945, but then this has also allowed them to retain a larger than life influence around the world and generated prosperity for at least another 70 years instead of a chaotic collapse into the doldrums.
It remains to be seen if US is wise enough to navigate itself into a period of contraction in an orderly fashion, but looking at their performance so far, the chances are rather slim.
Such a trader is both extremely lucky and unlucky at the same time. Lucky because he made money relatively easily for quite a while, unlucky because he was never put to the test of a downturn because of his optimal entry timing.
Since independence in 1776, US location made it hard and unfeasible for any of the European powers to mount a serious sustained assault though there were some short skirmishes with Canada / Mexico. All the way from 1776 to 1914 they were either left to their own devices to develop and/or tagged along the colonization gravy train by riding on the coat tails of the then superpowers UK and France.
US totally evaded WW1 and only joined in towards the end in 1917 on the victorious allied side thereby reaping some quick wins and war spoils with almost zero effort. In WW2 they only joined in halfway in 1942 after Germany, UK, USSR, China, Japan have all beaten themselves into exhaustion.
As the “final” country to beat Germany and Japan, this has also allowed the US to reap big gains on geopolitics, technology, human talent and economy far in excess of their contributions to the war effort. Thereafter from 1949 to 1989 with the advent of nukes, they never fought any major war which devastated former superpowers before them.
Then came the collapse of USSR and the US reached the pinnacle of its power during the 1990s. This was a time in which they went into Titanic mode and really believed nonsense like The End of History whereby US alone is all that mankind can ever hope to achieve.
Just like the trader who will eventually meet downturn and adverse markets, US is now beginning to step into this zone. We are now seeing this paradox of an experienced trader on paper who supposedly has 10+ years trading experience behaving like a novice who has never traded in a difficult situation. All the silly newbie errors are now being committed by a country that supposedly inherited its Anglo culture from the British Empire and has like 250 years of its own national history.
During the downturn of the British Empire and French Republic, these countries at least had the common sense to disengage and shed their non-core assets relatively peacefully in order to preserver whatever is left of their influence. UK and France might not have been superpowers since 1945, but then this has also allowed them to retain a larger than life influence around the world and generated prosperity for at least another 70 years instead of a chaotic collapse into the doldrums.
It remains to be seen if US is wise enough to navigate itself into a period of contraction in an orderly fashion, but looking at their performance so far, the chances are rather slim.
![[+]](https://sgtalk.net/images/bootbb/collapse_collapsed.png)
