Everything You Need To Know:
In today analyses I will explain in detail my theory for the upcoming months and what I believe to be the roadmap for the rest of this bull market and the beginning of the next bear market.
As of now short term MVRV shows max pain and capitulation happening among retail. The short term MVRV level we are currently in was seen four times in this bull market: at 16k in the start of the bull, at 49k in the yen carry trade unwind crash, at 74k in the tariff crash, and now at 107k within the bearish noise of the crowd calling for cycle top. For me it’s clear bottom is either already in or is extremely near of 107k. I believe we are in the final euphoric stage of the bull market and the market is currently preparing for the last big wave up before the cycle ends. My first target for the cycle top is the 140-150k level. That is the level where I will strongly consider exiting all of my positions. However if we enter an only up phase, driven by mass euphoria and blow-off top behavior, I will look at 180-200k level as the final stage of this bull market. That range will only be reached if retail comes in massively at 140-150k and institutions slow the sell pressure. Once the 140-150k zone is reached, I will analyze whether to remain exposed or exit all markets and wait for lower entries while building a short position. That decision will depend on many factors including on-chain data, macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.
Mid to long term, I continue to say what nobody else has the courage to say. I am extremely bearish for 2026. In fact, I believe it will be the worst year of this entire decade. All bullish narratives have already been priced in. Bitcoin ETF approval, Ethereum ETF approval, institutional adoption, macro optimism, big beautiful bill, all of that is already reflected in the current price. There’s nothing to be bullish about when we look forward. Markets will start to price in the reality that labor market keeps weakening and Fed will not take aggressive action unless it is forced to. And in order for the Fed to be forced into action, we will need a real recession to hit.
The stock market is already showing signs of huge imbalances, with AI being the only sector supporting indexes. This means once AI slows down everything collapses. The future of economy doesn’t look bright just knowing this data. As if that data was not bearish enough, we have M2 Global Liquidity ready for top in 3-6 months from now. Gold is moving higher and higher while dollar strength lower and lower. This is making M2 Global Liquidity pump, but soon enough this momentum ends and liquidity tops. It starts to dry among global markets. Indeed mid to long term there’s absolutely nothing to be bullish about.
For now we ride the bullish trend while it lasts. We are still inside a bull market and this is crucial for you to understand. I also want to keep spreading this chart until it stays in your heads in a permanent fashion, as it is the only chart you need until end of the year. Note that in the end of this year yet, we will see exactly who was right and exactly who was wrong. I hope every single one of you is pointing out the names on your notebook of those who are calling now for cycle top and those who still say cycle top is not in, and we will go higher. Because soon enough we will get to know who was right all the time..
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