Mr. Wall Street
@mrofwallstreet
·
18h
#Bitcoin - Full Market Breakdown
In Depth Technical and Psychological Analysis
Bitcoin successfully broke out of the 108k-118k sideways movement after 45 days of this boring price action, and it’s now mirrored in the chart how perfectly we played this market. We longed at $107,500 (First yellow circle), and we kept holding the longs waiting for a possible sweep of the lows. I explained the reason why longing in that region was a clear no brainer, saying that the exact same indicators which marked the bottom at 16k in Q4 of 2022, at 49k in the summer of last year during the Japanese carry trade unwind, and at 76k this year in April during the tariff trade war noise, flashed marking another significant local bottom in the market, and regardless if the market wanted to continue heading a little lower before higher, starting to build a leveraged long position there was clearly a wise move.
Now this Sunday I said precisely to you all that for those who weren’t long yet, to long (Second yellow circle), and those who were long already like me with lower entry point, to wait for a possible sweep of the lows if market allowed such an opportunity to add more size. Well, the sweep of the lows is now very unlikely, especially if Bitcoin successfully flips this 118k level into support as it is doing now, and continues heading higher. The scenarios where we sweep the lows are just two. The first one is to go towards bulls max pain region which is stands at 100k-103k and only then up to 140k-170k. This scenario would function as a reset of the market since we would hit bulls max pain, and retest of EMA50 weekly which is the bull market support. The second scenario would be to continue even lower than that what is the bulls max pain region, and in that case we would confirm the entry in the bear market. I want to let crystal clear that I am not expecting any of those scenarios to play out. I am expecting more upside in the next days/weeks and a lot more upside in the rest of Q4.
I would say there is only a 10% chance, as of now, to see a sweep of the lows before higher, and a 0% chance that the bull market is finished or it will finish if we sweep the lows. Market structure is extremely bullish and it perhaps the most bullish structure we have seen this bull market together with last year summer sideways movement. Moreover none of the important cycle top indicator have flashed, therefore we can only expect more upside, specially since this indicators are extremely accurate and don't rely on lagged/outdated intel. Pretty much I see us going towards ATH from here with 90% sure, and a 10% probability of a sweep of the lows first into bulls max pain before actually going higher. I keep prepared for both scenarios by being long and prepared to add more in a possible sweep of the lows, just like everyone who followed my calls in the previous weeks.
Its very important to say that yesterday US private companies reported a loss of -32,000 jobs September while it was expected +52,000 jobs to be added. Meanwhile August numbers were also revised down from a gain of +54,000 to -3,000, and several entities who successuffuly forecast inflation data are calling out for Inflation heading down already in the coming reports. Majority of people don't understand how bullish this really is. I keep empathizing to Premium members that is crucial and extremely bullish to see a weak labor market while inflation starts heading down. The reason why this is soo bullish its because this way Fed will have no option but to ease economy by cutting rates, and by doing this, borrowing money is easier and therefore liquidity in the markets rise. Consequently assets go up since USD devaluates. And even if rate cuts don't happen because ‘all of a sudden’ data starts to show that economy is stable, its more than enough to see a price in of those rate cuts to see another big leg up.
Markets are bullish and only a retard would say otherwise. All eyes on ATH now..