[CHAOS]

https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/chin...-fortress/

[Geneco]

Need some advice who ish SURE notch happy about this lololololol 🤣

[cityhantam]

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[maxsanic]

https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/chin...-fortress/

The National Security Journal raises fair enough points i.e. some aspects of the J20 flight could have been embellished and perhaps US forces are aware of the flight but chose not to publicize. As members of the public, we can never know for sure.

However, one very critical and arguably most important inference that is missing from the article is this: Unlike the US, China has a long-standing track record of publicizing its military information only when the information shared is at least one generation behind the most advanced hardware / doctrine in operation.

The fact that they are openly sharing detailed information on the J20 and its mode of operation implies heavily that what we read now is not the most advanced that PLA has to offer. This is the real story behind the drama.

It also shows that it is likely China is at least on par, if not more advanced that the US when operating in the East Asian theatre. As for Japanese and Korean military capability, they are likely at least a few notches below PLA and not considered a competitor even if we ignore China's superiority in quantity.

[Manthink]

The Chinese military jets had been patrolling this straits which is located between Korean peninsular and Japan for many years.
Naturally the Americans with its allies SKorea and Japan will closely monitor any craft that passes this narrow strait.

I would not be surprised the J-20 is one of the many aircraft types the Chinese had used to conducted operation in this area.
However, I would be even more surprised the none would not attempt to intercept the Chinese stealth jet like usually accord to other Chinese crafts like the H-6 bomber and J-16 fighter. 

If a J-20 was detected and interception made, we will certain see Japanese publishing aerial photo shots from F-15J escorting the J-20...
But so far, the Japanese has not report detecting J-20 activity in the Tsushima Strait. 

[maxsanic]

The Chinese military jets had been patrolling this straits which is located between Korean peninsular and Japan for many years.
Naturally the Americans with its allies SKorea and Japan will closely monitor any craft that passes this narrow strait.

I would not be surprised the J-20 is one of the many aircraft types the Chinese had used to conducted operation in this area.
However, I would be even more surprised the none would not attempt to intercept the Chinese stealth jet like usually accord to other Chinese crafts like the H-6 bomber and J-16 fighter. 

If a J-20 was detected and interception made, we will certain see Japanese publishing aerial photo shots from F-15J escorting the J-20...
But so far, the Japanese has not report detecting J-20 activity in the Tsushima Strait.   

Not necessarily so. The benefits of intercepting a J20 without Luneburg lens in the form of a media bonanza and show of military might needs to be weighted against with the cost of exposing your own capabilities (enemy knows their hardware and operations have been compromised). The exact calculus of the US government cannot be known by normal people like us.

Also Japan not publishing just means Japan don't know which is the most likely scenario since Japan is not anywhere close to China in military technology. That does not in any way imply anything about US military capability.

It is best not to interpret and conclude an unknown scenario like this in only a way that best fits who you "support".

[Manthink]

The National Security Journal raises fair enough points i.e. some aspects of the J20 flight could have been embellished and perhaps US forces are aware of the flight but chose not to publicize. As members of the public, we can never know for sure.

However, one very critical and arguably most important inference that is missing from the article is this: Unlike the US, China has a long-standing track record of publicizing its military information only when the information shared is at least one generation behind the most advanced hardware / doctrine in operation.

The fact that they are openly sharing detailed information on the J20 and its mode of operation implies heavily that what we read now is not the most advanced that PLA has to offer. This is the real story behind the drama.

It also shows that it is likely China is at least on par, if not more advanced that the US when operating in the East Asian theatre. As for Japanese and Korean military capability, they are likely at least a few notches below PLA and not considered a competitor even if we ignore China's superiority in quantity.

15 years ago before and soon after J-20's maiden flight on 11 Jan 2011, many western media and military "experts" claimed Chinese stealth fighter is at least  "10 years" away from operation.  Even major media like the BBC reported the claim the jet was "copied" or "reverse engineered" from a F-117 shot down over Serbia in 1999... 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-12266973

[maxsanic]

15 years ago before and soon after J-20's maiden flight on 11 Jan 2011, many western media and military "experts" claimed Chinese stealth fighter is at least  "10 years" away from operation.  Even major media like the BBC reported the claim the jet was "copied" or "reverse engineered" from a F-117 shot down over Serbia in 1999... 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-12266973

Sure, western media arrogance is well known and I agree.

But as I said, the Chinese narrative is one possible logically consistent hypothesis, but we should not conclude that theirs is the only possible explanation for the lack of Japanese airel photos.

We need to try and remove our own bias and arrogance in highly classified and technical issues that we have no way of knowing as well. Otherwise how are we different from the yaya papaya western journalists we criticize?

[Manthink]

Not necessarily so. The benefits of intercepting a J20 without Luneburg lens in the form of a media bonanza and show of military might needs to be weighted against with the cost of exposing your own capabilities (enemy knows their hardware and operations have been compromised). The exact calculus of the US government cannot be known by normal people like us.

Also Japan not publishing just means Japan don't know which is the most likely scenario since Japan is not anywhere close to China in military technology. That does not in any way imply anything about US military capability.

It is best not to interpret and conclude an unknown scenario like this in only a way that best fits who you "support".

No one would like to 2nd guess US capability just as no one in the Pentagon today like to repeat the same mistakes to assume the Chinese isn't capable of conducting military operations that are beyond the wildest imagination. This observation is based my reading about PRC's own track records of how PLA forces routed MacArthur's troops across the Yalu river  to recent surprised flights of "6 gen" jets over Sichuan... None of that were supported by  public nor certainly top-secret American intel, until the Chinese really show their hands... 

Those senrios, IMHO, is not because Jap or Yanks know about China's "secret", but rather the later just as a very public message to send... 

[Manthink]

Sure, western media arrogance is well known and I agree.
But as I said, the Chinese narrative is one possible logically consistent hypothesis, but we should not conclude that theirs is the only possible explanation for the lack of Japanese airel photos. We need to try and remove our own bias and arrogance in highly classified and technical issues that we have no way of knowing as well. Otherwise how are we different from the yaya papaya western journalists we criticize?

Like many of us, I for a longtime bought into western military tech advances and real-world results from LGB going down air vents during Gulf-War 1 of the 1990s.
That too shocked the Chinese..asking themselves how to fight in totally different war defined by data and GPS ?

And how did I learn and understand PRC's accelerated doctrine change?  I follow their CCTV documentaries...which had and still have LOTS of hints in their narrative and in full glory 4k resolutions.. This is why English-speaking world often missed out what the Chinese had been doing in the last 3 decades..

Here is one e.g.  CCTV showing in detail how Chinese pilots train with their PL-15..that is over a year before the world learn of PL-15 missile...

[maxsanic]

No one would like to 2nd guess US capability just as no one in the Pentagon today like to repeat the same mistakes to assume the Chinese isn't capable of conducting military operations that are beyond the wildest imagination. This observation is based my reading about PRC's own track records of how PLA forces routed MacArthur's troops across the Yalu river  to recent surprised flights of "6 gen" jets over Sichuan... None of that were supported by  public nor certainly top-secret American intel, until the Chinese really show their hands... 

Those senrios, IMHO, is not because Jap or Yanks know about China's "secret", but rather the later just as a very public message to send... 

Sure do, agree on the utility of this message.

As I have mentioned previously, my personal belief is that the PLA is at least on par if not technologically superior to the US military. However, due to their deeply rooted experience from history on the limitations and cost of war (real cost, not just the usual life is precious sense), they generally don't get themselves involved in wars easily.

This has led to some idiocy in the mainstream narrative like the hasty conclusion that US is the undisputed military #1 in the world or God forbid, nonsense like Russia is #2 or that somehow countries like UK/France/Japan/Germany are only slightly behind in China due to lack of quantity. It also doesn't help that a lot of China supporters try to frame the whole thing as Chinese moral superiority rather than highly effective statecraft derived from trial & error.

It is funny that many people from both the west and China claim to study Sun Tzu's Art of War and yet forget the most important stanzas that is the heart of the whole book, i.e. "Wars are the life an death of a nation. Try to win without it if you can."