[Everything Everywhere]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20...mate-video

China’s economy grew slower than expected in the second quarter, with worrying signs of a slowdown in consumer spending and ongoing pain in the property market. David Ingles and Yvonne Man have more on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

[maxsanic]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20...mate-video

China’s economy grew slower than expected in the second quarter, with worrying signs of a slowdown in consumer spending and ongoing pain in the property market. David Ingles and Yvonne Man have more on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

The slowdown in consumer spending is indeed worrying, but the property market slump is expected and an intentional government policy as the nation looks to transit its economy to higher tech and value add industries.

The problem is how to manage this structural change especially when new high tech industries can no longer generate that many jobs due to their lower labor intensity as well as damage taken in consumer confidence as a result of a weaker job market, no more easy money from property speculation and a general global economic lethargy.

Tough times ahead...

[cityhantam]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20...mate-video

China’s economy grew slower than expected in the second quarter, with worrying signs of a slowdown in consumer spending and ongoing pain in the property market. David Ingles and Yvonne Man have more on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

6.3% is "grew slower than expected"!? 

[maxsanic]

6.3% is "grew slower than expected"!? 

Yes, because Q2 2022 was heavily impacted by COVID restrictions so its easing would have easily lifted a few percentage points by default. Using the annualized GDP growth method Q2 2023 growth was only around 2.5%.

From the looks of it, the Chinese government's target GDP growth in 5% for 2023 is actually a realistic and slightly stretched target. Some economists were overly optimistic in the early months and it's not logical to expect China to jump straight back to the pre-COVID days in the midst of an economic structural transitioning and global malaise in US and EU.

[cityhantam]

Yes, because Q2 2022 was heavily impacted by COVID restrictions so its easing would have easily lifted a few percentage points by default. Using the annualized GDP growth method Q2 2023 growth was only around 2.5%.

From the looks of it, the Chinese government's target GDP growth in 5% for 2023 is actually a realistic and slightly stretched target. Some economists were overly optimistic in the early months and it's not logical to expect China to jump straight back to the pre-COVID days in the midst of an economic structural transitioning and global malaise in US and EU.

China's GDP grew by 5.5 per cent in H1 2023, reaching 59,303.4 billion yuan, as per the National Bureau of Statistics.

..... 

How many countries have similar or better growth? 

[maxsanic]

China's GDP grew by 5.5 per cent in H1 2023, reaching 59,303.4 billion yuan, as per the National Bureau of Statistics.

..... 

How many countries have similar or better growth? 

True, but let's not play down the significant challenges facing China in this crucial stage. While the western media definitely has a penchant for dramatizing Chinese collapse, it doesn't change the fact that the country is having a tough time like everyone else.

The way I see it GDP is a red herring and doesn't really say much, the real challenge is how to wean itself off the property market and generate enough jobs from higher value adding activities that aren't labor intensive which in turn helps the country to pivot towards a dual circulation anchored by domestic consumption. This will require a few significant breakthroughs from various fields in the upcoming years.

Currently the EV and renewable energy industry are full steam ahead, pharma/biotech and AI is promising while high end chip manufacturing and global finance is still in the early stages of development. IIRC China has identified 8 key economic / innovation areas as drivers of future growth, they will probably need at least 6 - 7 of these to reach the current explosive stage of EV and renewable energy to alleviate the situation.

The good news though is once this is achieved, the country will further embark on a new growth trajectory and that would spell the cessation of the US as a global strategic competitor of means.

PS: Some Chinese economists and many citizens are actually advocating for the government to give out consumption vouchers and pump out money to "fix" the property market. This is typical taking the easy way out US style and instantly jack up GDP growth but end up detrimental for the future. It's encouraging to see such discipline from the government to take up the challenge instead of kicking the can down the road.