Decoupling??? Is China losing foreign investment as some claimed?
#1


万万没想到,天量资本,突然蜂拥涌入中国
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#2

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1276378.shtml

EU companies, facing energy crisis, invest more in China

Energy shortage in Europe intensified by the Nord Stream pipelines blast, which pushed gas prices to record levels, have sent many European companies scrambling to deal with the growing risks to production costs.

Companies in the region are heading to China to set up new plants and pursue investment opportunities, especially companies in auto-making and chemicals, which need stable power supplies, the Global Times learned.

From January to August, the actual use of foreign capital in China reached 892.74 billion yuan, up 16.4 percent year-on-year, statistics from the Ministry of Commerce showed.

The EU's overall investment in China rose by a significant 123.7 percent, reflecting European companies' confidence in the Chinese market.

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Analysts predict that if the European energy crisis deepens, more companies will increase their investment in China.

Although China is the world's largest energy importer, China's energy supply is basically guaranteed, and cooperation between Chinese and European enterprises can ease the energy crisis and strengthen supply chain security, Wu Yikang, honorable chairman of the Shanghai Institute of European Studies, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

"Recent moves by European companies show that their confidence in investing in China is growing instead of waning, and there is no decoupling from China as reported by some Western media," Wu said.

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#3

(27-09-2022, 01:07 PM)kokee Wrote:  comie dogs here can bark lies non stop that china export up? my foot!
shipping cost from china down 90%.
a container from chin to US used to cost US$12k, now down to US$3k also no taker!!
nothing to ship from china to US? but comie dogs data from ccp china is super strong!! LOL LOL!
china export these days are by train to russia!!! hahaaa!!
same apply shipping cost to Europe, plunges!!
with so high petrol cost yet shipping collapse!!!!







中國集裝箱航運市場疲軟 海運價格暴跌九成




as above, china sipping cost to US & Europe down almost 60-90%, why? nothing much to ship!!
no demand, still invest? pull out investment instead!
look at china stock market & RMB, you know how weak is china economy!
china data can trust? my foot, still got morons here believe all these communist sources of lies & china data? LOL LOL!
china covid lock down, china jobless rate, banks run, all banks support RMB like crazy, totally insane now!!! hahaaa!




歐洲企業加速逃離中國




(27-09-2022, 09:40 AM)kokee Wrote:  china economy collapsing on the way, whole world know well now!!
from stock market crash, property price collapse, bond default, RMB meltdown, banks bankrupt & run, jobless surges to sky, abandon housing loan, no more money, keep printing, rate cut instead of hike, covid lock down till almost all economy halted, no more new investment, domestic market dying, export & import crash, global cut off tie with china on the way to total, global sanction china coming & ton more!!
social unrest coming!!




中国各行业大裁员,韭菜刚结婚生子就没了工作,失业人数暴涨社会恐将震荡,各种悲惨事件接连发生。





又一家银行爆雷!股市跌惨迎20大!中共乱套


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#4

(30-09-2022, 10:19 AM)cityhantam Wrote:  

万万没想到,天量资本,突然蜂拥涌入中国
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There is a need to differentiate between fixed asset investments and highly liquid capital movements.

The former is surging into China while the latter is moving out due to increases in US interest rates. In absolute dollar terms, the liquid investments outflow far outnumber fixed asset inflows, but the good thing is fixed asset inflows are very stable, i.e. once they are in it is unlikely they will leave within the next 5 - 10 years and such investment tend to bring about actual tangible benefits such as employment, technological upgrades, skills impartation etc. whereas liquid capital will just jump overnight from one place to another in pursuit of ST interest rates.

The reason why there is so much confusion is because the pro and anti-China people keep quoting different set of numbers of suit their narrative. What is very clear though is the Chinese government is putting in much more effort to attract the smaller but much more stable long term fixed asset investments than actually doing anything to prop up the debt, equity and real estate trio.

While such macro government polices are good for the nation over the long term, it does mean bad news for individual investors who are buying into Chinese stock and debt.
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#5

Got 1 Ah Neh saying China will be isolated… 真的是笑死人。Currently, China is shifting their manufacturing base mainly to the western part of China… This is to shorten the transport time for China goods to reach Europe.

China has become the largest consumers for Europe luxury goods.

“Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind"
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#6

https://www.china-briefing.com/news/new-...d-regions/

“Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind"
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#7

(30-09-2022, 10:29 AM)maxsanic Wrote:  There is a need to differentiate between fixed asset investments and highly liquid capital movements.

The former is surging into China while the latter is moving out due to increases in US interest rates. In absolute dollar terms, the liquid investments outflow far outnumber fixed asset inflows, but the good thing is fixed asset inflows are very stable, i.e. once they are in it is unlikely they will leave within the next 5 - 10 years and such investment tend to bring about actual tangible benefits such as employment, technological upgrades, skills impartation etc. whereas liquid capital will just jump overnight from one place to another in pursuit of ST interest rates.

The reason why there is so much confusion is because the pro and anti-China people keep quoting different set of numbers of suit their narrative. What is very clear though is the Chinese government is putting in much more effort to attract the smaller but much more stable long term fixed asset investments than actually doing anything to prop up the debt, equity and real estate trio.

While such macro government polices are good for the nation over the long term, it does mean bad news for individual investors who are buying into Chinese stock and debt.

If you look at stock indices, YTD Dow Jones has dropped more than Shanghai Index.

No clear indication that liquid capital has left China en mass.
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#8

(30-09-2022, 01:02 PM)cityhantam Wrote:  If you look at stock indices, YTD Dow Jones has dropped more than Shanghai Index.

No clear indication that liquid capital has left China en mass.

Dow Jones :

29,225.61 -7,359.45 (-20.12%) year to date
29 Sept, 5:15 pm GMT-4


SSE Composite Index :

3,040.23 -592.46 (-16.31%) year to date
30 Sept, 1:36 pm GMT+8

Hang Seng Index

17,159.72 -6,113.21 (-26.27%) year to date
30 Sept, 1:40 pm GMT+8 

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Nasdaq Composite

10,737.51 -5,095.29 (-32.18%) year to date
29 Sept, 5:15 pm GMT-4 •
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#9

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/forei...%2020.2%25

Foreign direct investment into China climbed 16.4% year-on-year to CNY 892.74 billion (USD 138.41 billion) in the first eight months of the year, China’s commerce ministry data showed. In dollar terms, FDI rose 20.2%.

 Foreign investment into the service sector climbed 8.7%, while high-tech industries FDI inflow surged by 33.6%. 

Among the main sources of investment, FDI into China increased mainly from South Korea (58.9%), Germany (30.3%), Japan (26.8%), and the UK (17.2%).

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#10

(30-09-2022, 01:02 PM)cityhantam Wrote:  If you look at stock indices, YTD Dow Jones has dropped more than Shanghai Index.

No clear indication that liquid capital has left China en mass.

Er... interest rates have a negative correlation with stock valuations generally. It is normal for US equities to depreciate as short term capital migrate to sovereign debt for risk evasion and maximization of risk free returns. What is a little abnormal isn't the fact the Down Jones has dropped, but that it has dropped so little after such an aggressive Fed stance.

Do take note that the CNY is depreciating even as China's trade surplus with US widens, this is a classic symptom of liquid capital switching out of CNY to USD. We also have to be careful in using YTD Shenzhen numbers as the Chinese stock market has been under tight reign by the central government and has traded sideways for a very long time. In addition, Chinese stock market participation by international institutions through stock connect remains very low and thus a pullout will not be severe as long as the vast majority of PRC retailers remain in market.

It is thus only natural that when you zoom in using YTD window the drop would have been less severe than US equities. For better clarity if you use the HSI (i.e. the normal route in which most financial institutions invest into the Chinese market), you will realize that its decline is actually steeper than DJI. For the avoidance of doubt, I personally don't believe such relative index TSR comparisons provide much indication of capital flow, just drawing an example here.

On a more important note, is such a pull out of ST funds out of China of concern? Generally no. As long as it does not cause a market panic and cause a contagious and systemic collapse in valuations, China will continue to be OK despite all that doomsday shouting and screaming from the western press. The real danger facing China now is not this sort of drama nonsense, but the fact that China has to and is now making structural reforms to its economy, trying to booster shot its technological upgrading and at the same time facing some unsavory social challenges all in the midst of a global economic lethargy and faced with an irrational US who is increasingly willing to do financial suicide bombing out of Sinophobia or misplaced belief in American exceptionalism.
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#11

You believe Ah Kock's FLG fake news or Bloomberg News? (sgtalk.net)

Ah Kock's falungong fake news said European firms ran away from China.  

Bloomberg news said European firms are attracted into China.  

Which do you believe?  

Rotfl Rotfl Rotfl    Laughing Laughing Laughing    


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#12

(30-09-2022, 10:27 AM)kokee Wrote:  as above, 



天天硬事2496期——01 美国决定巨额投资南太平洋岛国,10年10个国家给予8亿美元,希望通过投资拉近与他们关系共同守护民主 02 美国驻华大使伯恩斯表示美国资本非常喜欢投资中国希望和中国合作与对话
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#13

https://www.thechemicalengineer.com/news...s-complex/
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#14

(30-09-2022, 11:09 AM)RiseofAsia Wrote:  Got 1 Ah Neh saying China will be isolated… 真的是笑死人。Currently, China is shifting their manufacturing base mainly to the western part of China… This is to shorten the transport time for China goods to reach Europe.

China has become the largest consumers for  Europe luxury goods.
Countries are run by smart citizen the smarter the Prospere.

"Forget about those politicians they are there to play politics,
they give you the impression they are running the country" Big Grin
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#15


中国,果然爆发了,真正的好戏才刚刚开始
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