[sgbuffett]

First look at the VIX ...if you look closely it tells out something important.
VIX measure level of fear in market.

In 2018 Fed announced it will hike rates, market plunged VIX hit 29.9...the plunge was not small it was around 20%(?) over 2 weeks.

Recent plunge is around 2 weeks and yesterday fear was very high. Guess what level was the VIX....yes 29.9 same as 2018.




I expect the Nasdaq to go lower due to over valuation. If it does not it is not so interesting and will just go sideways as there is little to move it higher.

I don't expect it to plunge sharply anymore but to gradually weaken down to disappointment in earnings.

The bubble stocks like Zoom, Gamestop, Quantum scape, etc and ARK related stock have deflated a lot with falling 60-80% but these have not hit bottom. Using the 2000 Nasdaq bubble  burst and crash the bottom can be 2 yrs away and many of the stocks will go bankrupt and disappear. Things like space stocks which were hot 1yr ago can just go to zero as they struggle to raise money to patch losses.

For me I am waiting for Nasdaq to reach 10k-12k level to look more closely at the good ones that were previous overvalued. NVIDIA, Adobe are good companies but too expensive to buy.

My purchases before this plunge Intel and Micron have done fairly and are positive as other stocks have negative returns in the same period.

The Dow is not overvalued and stocks on this index will be strong beneficiaries of US infrastructure spending, oil recovery and rising demand as the economy emerge from pandemic.  I just don't see much downside even as rates goes up it is countered by the US economy depressed sector recovering.
.
Tough markets brings out the tough investor in you.
If you give in to fear despite good investment decisions made earlier, you give away your future returns.

If you have views and comments please post and discuss.

[ysh02]

Dow dropped 1k plus than rebounded 1k plus 99 points... .no war at eastern Europe Ukraine yet...no worries !

[Cmpunk]

How to measure VIX?

[sgbuffett]

Dow dropped 1k plus than rebounded 1k plus 99 points... .no war at eastern Europe Ukraine yet...no worries !

War will cause oil price to shoot up.
Be it Iraq war or Afghan war .or Falkland wars
.the market fell 2 days and recovered.

The world is a place with endless worries and problems it has been and always will be like that.

[sgbuffett]

How to measure VIX?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp

[sgbuffett]

Dow dropped 1k plus than rebounded 1k plus 99 points... .no war at eastern Europe Ukraine yet...no worries !

Reminds me of the bottom day of the pandemic sell off. But this time I was sleeping soundly and did not catch it.

[Zannn]

First look at the VIX ...if you look closely it tells out something important.
VIX measure level of fear in market.

In 2018 Fed announced it will hike rates, market plunged VIX hit 29.9...the plunge was not small it was around 20%(?) over 2 weeks.

Recent plunge is around 2 weeks and yesterday fear was very high. Guess what level was the VIX....yes 29.9 same as 2018.




I expect the Nasdaq to go lower due to over valuation. If it does not it is not so interesting and will just go sideways as there is little to move it higher.

I don't expect it to plunge sharply anymore but to gradually weaken down to disappointment in earnings.

The bubble stocks like Zoom, Gamestop, Quantum scape, etc and ARK related stock have deflated a lot with falling 60-80% but these have not hit bottom. Using the 2000 Nasdaq bubble  burst and crash the bottom can be 2 yrs away and many of the stocks will go bankrupt and disappear. Things like space stocks which were hot 1yr ago can just go to zero as they struggle to raise money to patch losses.

For me I am waiting for Nasdaq to reach 10k-12k level to look more closely at the good ones that were previous overvalued. NVIDIA, Adobe are good companies but too expensive to buy.

My purchases before this plunge Intel and Micron have done fairly and are positive as other stocks have negative returns in the same period.

The Dow is not overvalued and stocks on this index will be strong beneficiaries of US infrastructure spending, oil recovery and rising demand as the economy emerge from pandemic.  I just don't see much downside even as rates goes up it is countered by the US economy depressed sector recovering.
.
Tough markets brings out the tough investor in you.
If you give in to fear despite good investment decisions made earlier, you give away your future returns.

If you have views and comments please post and discuss.

Since the current drastic drop is stalled, short term play should be looking at Hsi till US has nicer valuation.

[sgbuffett]

Since the current drastic drop is stalled, short term play should be looking at Hsi till US has nicer valuation.

Don't think short term. ..
The valuation difference between HK Tech HK blue chips and western market is 100%...

I rather look at individual  companies....this so much easier to find in HK than US.

Singapore Is cheap but quality of companies is so so.

Why I do watch short term actions of market is to take advantage of it to take long term action....

[sgbuffett]

There is always something to worry about if you own stocks. Hence what is important is the stomach not the brain. For many the more you think the more counter productive. Worse still is the market movement reinforces your fear and cause you to make mistakes.

I was once in an investment seminar. People were sharing experiences. All the negative experience people had were losing money speculating short term. Many positive stories where people buying good stocks like Nestle Malaysia l, Public Bank and holding them for decades. Of course some hold the wrong stocks for decades but the night mare stories are people who "play" certain hot stocks or buying stocks at peak to see them collapse.

If one just look at the past 12 months. The hottest most popular stocks in 2020 like Virgin Galactic, Nio, AlRKK are the ones that fell 60-80%....