[sgbuffett]

Everyone is getting out of the sinking ship....

The HK market has the same price to book and price to cashflow as during financial crisis. This means investors are pricing the market for a severe economic collapse. HK is now in recession already.
The long term RSI is below that of Financial Crisis and same as in bottom of  Asian crisis.

When this happens should you buy or sell? 99% of the people will panic and be fearful sellers.

You may think it's time to buy as a contrarian as everyone is in fear. There is one problem..that makes it not so straight forward.

While the market is certainly cheap, there is one tricky issue. The HKD is peg to USD. Everytime the FED raise rates HK needs to follow. In each of the past criisis, HK stocks bottomed only when Fed cut rates. Asian crisis ended when Fed cut rates 3 times. Fiancial crisis the HSI bottomed when Fed cut rates sharply.

The problem now is HK and US is off sync ...HK is in a bad recession while US is fighting inflation and will hike rates in the coming months. This complicates the bottom picking. But I dare say savvy value investors have to be considering to buy this historic low valuation regardless of the interest rate situation.

[theold]

Shanghai Composite Index 3,108.91 −8.27 (0.27%)today

Hang Seng drops so much while Shanghai didn't. The reason is the circulation of the main trading currency.

[sgbuffett]

Shanghai Composite Index 3,108.91 −8.27 (0.27%)today

Hang Seng drops so much while Shanghai didn't. The reason is the circulation of main trading currency.

A shares which are purchased more by Chinese institutions is steadier.


The H shares is volatile. I track a number of A vs H shares. Same share can fall 3% on HK side and only 1% on china side.

It shows foreigners are just dumping ....

[WhatDoYouThink!]

heard from some unreliable sources streets and malls are quite empty now, 十室九空，人去楼空

[theold]

USD is the main trading currency in the world. Trump might have overprinted too much out of thin air. Now, they are taking them out of the system.

[Zannn]

Everyone is getting out of the sinking ship....

The HK market has the same price to book and price to cashflow as during financial crisis. This means investors are pricing the market for a severe economic collapse. HK is now in recession already.
The long term RSI is below that of Financial Crisis and same as in bottom of  Asian crisis.

When this happens should you buy or sell? 99% of the people will panic and be fearful sellers.

You may think it's time to buy as a contrarian as everyone is in fear. There is one problem..that makes it not so straight forward.

While the market is certainly cheap, there is one tricky issue. The HKD is peg to USD. Everytime the FED raise rates HK needs to follow. In each of the past criisis, HK stocks bottomed only when Fed cut rates. Asian crisis ended when Fed cut rates 3 times. Fiancial crisis the HSI bottomed when Fed cut rates sharply.

The problem now is HK and US is off sync ...HK is in a bad recession while US is fighting inflation and will hike rates in the coming months. This complicates the bottom picking. But I dare say savvy value investors have to be considering to buy this historic low valuation regardless of the interest rate situation.

Hsi still have to fall more. Don’t be tricked by the rsi.

[sgbuffett]

Hsi still have to fall more. Don’t be tricked by the rsi.

I have stop buying and sold some a few weeks and months  back but if it gets to 17000 level I will buy and buy until my last cent...

The March to Jun 2022 rally tells us if that if HSI falls low enough it can rally independent of the US market...and even if US sinks. The previous rally failed mainly because zero COVID restrictions and China slowdown put a cap to it. 

We have now come back to the march lows. Normally I would buy at these levels and this type of situation. But this time I am not so sure ...but 17000 will definitely be a buy level for me.

[Yin yang]

Good for these strawberries to leave as they r not adaptable to thr new culture.
More opportunities for millions of interested mid class educated from mainland coming over.
HK, fragrant city with good fengshui will prosper n boom after this initial spring cleaning

[theold]

You buy. I print money and buy. Inflation is exported. The market keeps going up. You buy and sell, buy and sell, you still make.

Now, I sell and sell because I need the money back because it was created. You can average down if you want.

[revealer]

This market will need to see a Global market recovery before it can stop sliding further. Presently, it has a target to hit 12,000.

[grotesqueness]

got taiwan china war will be 3000

[Zannn]

I have stop buying and sold some a few weeks and months  back but if it gets to 17000 level I will buy and buy until my last cent...

The March to Jun 2022 rally tells us if that if HSI falls low enough it can rally independent of the US market...and even if US sinks. The previous rally failed mainly because zero COVID restrictions and China slowdown put a cap to it. 

We have now come back to the march lows. Normally I would buy at these levels and this type of situation. But this time I am not so sure ...but 17000 will definitely be a buy level for me.

17000 can easily be hit from here. Get ready to buy dude

[Zannn]

I have stop buying and sold some a few weeks and months  back but if it gets to 17000 level I will buy and buy until my last cent...

The March to Jun 2022 rally tells us if that if HSI falls low enough it can rally independent of the US market...and even if US sinks. The previous rally failed mainly because zero COVID restrictions and China slowdown put a cap to it. 

We have now come back to the march lows. Normally I would buy at these levels and this type of situation. But this time I am not so sure ...but 17000 will definitely be a buy level for me.

Keep yr eyes glued sgbuffet, open may hit near 17500 n start the bounce party

[Sharexchange]

China next Month National Rally Speech liao..i think Fattty Xi Boom Boom going to annouce china Defeat of Zero Covid Policy and just open their mother Gates to let foreigners poke in...

[ROFLMAO]

China next Month National Rally Speech liao..i think Fattty Xi Boom Boom going to annouce china Defeat of Zero Covid Policy and just open their mother Gates to let foreigners poke in...

I hope Ah Tiongs will be locked up in China forever by Xi Zero Covid Policy.. Having a few CCP commie pests here is enough problem

[WhatDoYouThink!]

shd lock up all the flgdogs so they cannot flee and create troubles.

[Zannn]

Keep yr eyes glued sgbuffet, open may hit near 17500 n start the bounce party

Now wor very crucial

[Zannn]

I have stop buying and sold some a few weeks and months  back but if it gets to 17000 level I will buy and buy until my last cent...

The March to Jun 2022 rally tells us if that if HSI falls low enough it can rally independent of the US market...and even if US sinks. The previous rally failed mainly because zero COVID restrictions and China slowdown put a cap to it. 

We have now come back to the march lows. Normally I would buy at these levels and this type of situation. But this time I am not so sure ...but 17000 will definitely be a buy level for me.

Paging Sgbuffett, u dare all in or not? Coming )

[RiseofAsia]

Dow flipping down. 37000-29600=7400pts. Scary Sia… Oct 22, is the World Market Crash mth?

[Sharexchange]

HK under structural damage....esp after China tookover. ..

[Niubee]

HK under structural damage....esp after China tookover. ..

The world now all in structural changes. Due to America, Russia and China.

[Sharexchange]

The world now all in structural changes. Due to America, Russia and China.

Mainly china. But its for worse

[Niubee]

Mainly china. But its for worse

Why u say that...

[teaserteam]

The China rich r flocking to Singapore. They used to go to Hong Kong before

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking...-singapore

[teaserteam]

Y they move to Singapore


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.busines...nese%3Famp

[teaserteam]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sea.mashabl...%3Famp%3D1

[sgbuffett]

Just an update...

The HSI has fallen to near 17000 level
Minus the tech  stocks which are cheap but complicated the other stocks are  now valued as low as they were valued during the Asian Fianncial Crisis level. So those who.missed the chance in 1998 it has come back once again.

What go tye HSI here js a mix of many misfortunes starting with the mass protests of 2019 
 Pandemic, zero covid and recession

This time however it is a bit complicated as the US is off sync and raising rates while HK is is already in recession.

At some point the valuation will price for long term decline of HK.

[sgbuffett]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/hon...es-2956866

[Zannn]

Just an update...

The HSI has fallen to near 17000 level
Minus the tech  stocks which are cheap but complicated the other stocks are  now valued as low as they were valued during the Asian Fianncial Crisis level. So those who.missed the chance in 1998 it has come back once again.

What go tye HSI here js a mix of many misfortunes starting with the mass protests of 2019 
 Pandemic, zero covid and recession

This time however it is a bit complicated as the US is off sync and raising rates while HK is is already in recession.

At some point the valuation will price for long term decline of HK.

It’s at yr “surely all in” level already. Put yr $ where yr mouth is. Show hand.

[sgbuffett]

It’s at yr “surely all in” level already. Put yr $ where yr mouth is. Show hand.

You are right when it got close to 17000 wanted to buy but because it had not reached and I thought patience is best it did not touch.

Also Dow is still unstable.

It did not have same feel as March 2022 when it drop so fast until people face turn green......and market reverse so fast I manage to buy very little.

This time it's not the small speculators running like spiders the last few funds that hold out until now.

It is also the point where those few who still want to get out sell to  long term value investors who will sit through the painful recession.