[pinkpanther]

To put thjngs in perspective HSI close the week 400+pts down and is red for the week.

People are fickle and cheering because of the Friday jump when China govt announced support for the market. But looking at how much market sank for the week.



Think  what happened after th Chuna govt promise to prop up the market in April 2024.
The market prop up peak in May and  lose momentum and sank for 3 months sank until lows of August 2024



Remember and be wary of what can happen.

Base on the month, HSI is up 15%..how can you judge base on this week 

[WhatDoYouThink!]

Yesterday up so much. The six monthly chatt is aso very bullish. It’s depends on what you want to choose to say

[teaserteam]

China has to address the underlying impediments to economic growth. These are

Weak consumption :Falling retail sale
Real estate crisis : Falling prices
Local government debt : rising debts
Trade tensions : Anti-dumping everywhere
Foreign investment : Pulling out
Demographic shift : Population declining
Financial pressure : Bank reluctant to lend and companies no money to invest

[revealer]

Many Chinese investors lose their pants in this crazy volatile market.

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/co...-bull-case

[Blasterlord2]

China has to address the underlying impediments to economic growth.  These are

Weak consumption :Falling retail sale
Real estate crisis : Falling prices
Local government debt : rising debts
Trade tensions : Anti-dumping everywhere
Foreign investment :  Pulling out
Demographic shift :  Population declining
Financial pressure :  Bank reluctant to lend and companies no money to invest

And what makes you think that China is not already doing something? Open up your taobao app and you'll find that the Chinese govt is currently subsidizing purchases.

As for population decline, there's already a drastic change in the mindset of young Chinese so it's not an easy problem to solve. Spore can't solve it either.

[revealer]

If China is doing something,  it is still a long way to go. Their retail sales figure has never been normal again after Covid. Need to put in more effort.

[sgbuffett]

If China is doing something,  it is still a long way to go. Their retail sales figure has never been normal again after Covid.  Need to put in more effort.

Looking at the data it swings up a few round but never sustained any kind of long lasting recovery just like the stick market.

[sgbuffett]

And what makes you think that China is not already doing something? Open up your taobao app and you'll find that the Chinese govt is currently subsidizing purchases.

As for population decline, there's already a drastic change in the mindset of young Chinese so it's not an easy problem to solve. Spore can't solve it either.

Agree with you China's problems are not easy to solve

[WhatDoYouThink!]

Today bought a few items all made in china

As long as you keep buying mic, how will its economy collapse?

[forum456]

Agree with you China's problems are not easy to solve

no need for china problems to be solved to make money.

we make money based on buy low and sell high.
as long as china crashes more than 10% and then rises more than 10%, we can make money by buying low and selling high.
no need to care what will happen to china.

we just care when to buy and then sell.

[pinkpanther]

no need for china problems to be solved to make money.

we make money based on buy low and sell high.
as long as china crashes more than 10% and then rises more than 10%, we can make money by buy low and sell high.
no need to care what will happen to china.

we just care when to buy and then sell.

Why is he concerned about all the issues if he’s presenting himself as a day trader? He’s not in it for the long haul; he just goes wherever the wind takes him...

[WhatDoYouThink!]

Right. Even in a down trend, there are still many opportunities to long or short

How cum guru doesn’t know that?

[revealer]

What happened? China A50 Future CFD in Saturday’s IG Market suddenly lose all the gains it accumulated on Friday.

[S I M T A N]

Why is he concerned about all the issues if he’s presenting himself as a day trader? He’s not in it for the long haul; he just goes wherever the wind takes him...

It beats me why sgbuffett is so fixated on China's tales of woe, even on issues unrelated to trading. As a day trader charting trends in the stock market, he is also into fundamentals scrutiny. I believe it's possible for astute chartists to extrapolate future developments from past trends, but if they also fixate on the fundamentals, they're likely to get mixed signals which may lead to confusion.

For this reason, many pure chartists do not intensely  read and follow the economic news filtering through from the Chinese mainland as doing so may interfere with their trading decisions. On the other hand, people who base their trading strategy on the fundamentals are usually long-term investors who, unlike the chartists, do not swear by the charts as a way of second-guessing the market.

I think one should either do technical trading or trade on the fundamentals. Mix the two up with a plethora of information will add to the confusion, with a jack-of-all-trades, master of none rearing his head.

It's extremely difficult to ride the market's short-term waves - the intraday trading, the hit-and-run short bets. You win some, you lose some, as ah but said, but will almost always end up in a deficit. It's just not worth your time, effort, the paltry profits, if any, and the high levels of anxiety that comes with it. So go for the medium or long-term trades if you don't want to meet your waterloo.

[S I M T A N]

For those who complain I get the market  wrong and all thiat probably don't understand tradkng.

Below are my trading stats.

Out of 500 trades 56% are profitable 
But the profits I make on winning trades is double that of my losing trade.

I definitely dong get the market right all the time but catch most of the big moves to make.



After 1yr plus the HSI is roughly where it is since the thread started.

If you just buy and hold HK stocks  you will not make any money.

You have, by your own account, profited from your trades, with over half of your 500 trading transactions in the black. What's more, the earnings from your winning trades were twice those of your losing ones. That means you ended up with a healthy profit in the final tally in that period of time, which was quite a feat. This could also mean you belong to a very small percentage of successful market players, haha.

[sgbuffett]

Here is how the 4 hourly A50 Index to geta bigger picture.


As usually many come this thread to KPKB after the China govt came in to bailout the market with a "market stabilisation " announcement.

Before that I shorted and covered by shorts profitably  after the market tanked following the China GDP announcement.

The peculiar thing about the GDP was that it beat economic estimates but the market was still disappointed and went down on the news.

After the market tanked thebPBOC came out with the announcement right when the A50 Index was at the 13K level and the market is "rescued"

The stabilisation  fund is $112B . To put things jn perspective just the stake in Tencent that investor Prosus has been trying to sell is bigger than this amount.  I'm reality the stabilisation fund itself won't do much..may be temporarily boost sentiment and cause some short sellers who trade short term to cover.

There is no doubt China market is cheap. There is also no doubt the Chinese economy is in serious trouble.



Biden is a senile old man. So senile, he went to repeat what his intelligence agencies told him during their secret briefing
Many China fans came out to attack Biden.

After that the Chinese economy got from bad to worse and stock market hit post covid lows.

If you have been watching the situation closely. What happened was many local govts in China ran out of funds and cannot pay their civil servants and contractors. .

In around mid September the Chinese govt realised this will turn into a full on crisis if nothing is done and called for a Poliburo meeting to try to turns things around. The stimulus package is actually confirmation of the economic serious troubles they face.

The reluctance of China central govt to tackle local govt debt is understandable because the total govt debt is 130% of GDP like Greece before European crisis. They are now doing it because there is no more choice to delay it.

As for the stock market they need to be revived to restore sentiment and give companies a chance to raise money and kick start the sinking economy. Unfortunately the China stocks market is 70% retail investors compared with below 20% elsewhere. It is guaranteed to go wild like in 2015 and 2021. Last week 10% HSI meltdown and the retail trader frenzy that saw millions of new trading accounts opened and getting slaughtered once the Golden Week holiday ended.

[p1acebo]

It beats me why sgbuffett is so fixated on China's tales of woe, even on issues unrelated to trading. As a day trader charting trends in the stock market, he is also into fundamentals scrutiny. I believe it's possible for astute chartists to extrapolate future developments from past trends, but if they also fixate on the fundamentals, they're likely to get mixed signals which may lead to confusion.

For this reason, many pure chartists do not intensely  read and follow the economic news filtering through from the Chinese mainland as doing so may interfere with their trading decisions. On the other hand, people who base their trading strategy on the fundamentals are usually long-term investors who, unlike the chartists, do not swear by the charts as a way of second-guessing the market.

I think one should either do technical trading or trade on the fundamentals. Mix the two up with a plethora of information will add to the confusion, with a jack-of-all-trades, master of none rearing his head.

It's extremely difficult to ride the market's short-term waves - the intraday trading, the hit-and-run short bets. You win some, you lose some, as ah but said, but will almost always end up in a deficit. It's just not worth your time, effort, the paltry profits, if any, and the high levels of anxiety that comes with it. So go for the medium or long-term trades if you don't want to meet your waterloo.

All said and done, Sgbuffet is a very confused person

[WhatDoYouThink!]

56% is before deducting trading costs or after? You can aso achieve a 50+% of success rate by tossing coins. But in the longer run, all shd converge to 50%

[pinkpanther]

It beats me why sgbuffett is so fixated on China's tales of woe, even on issues unrelated to trading. As a day trader charting trends in the stock market, he is also into fundamentals scrutiny. I believe it's possible for astute chartists to extrapolate future developments from past trends, but if they also fixate on the fundamentals, they're likely to get mixed signals which may lead to confusion.

For this reason, many pure chartists do not intensely  read and follow the economic news filtering through from the Chinese mainland as doing so may interfere with their trading decisions. On the other hand, people who base their trading strategy on the fundamentals are usually long-term investors who, unlike the chartists, do not swear by the charts as a way of second-guessing the market.

I think one should either do technical trading or trade on the fundamentals. Mix the two up with a plethora of information will add to the confusion, with a jack-of-all-trades, master of none rearing his head.

It's extremely difficult to ride the market's short-term waves - the intraday trading, the hit-and-run short bets. You win some, you lose some, as ah but said, but will almost always end up in a deficit. It's just not worth your time, effort, the paltry profits, if any, and the high levels of anxiety that comes with it. So go for the medium or long-term trades if you don't want to meet your waterloo.

On the flip side, long-term investors who predominantly rely on fundamentals can sometimes miss short-term opportunities presented by market inefficiencies that chartists might exploit. Understanding various time horizons and the interplay between technical and fundamental analysis can provide a more comprehensive perspective.

Ultimately, each trader must find their own balance and discover which approach aligns best with their risk tolerance and trading style. While it’s indeed challenging to ride the waves of the market, being adaptable can be a valuable asset. Embracing both methodologies ( technical and fundamental analysis) not necessarily as a means to combine them, but rather as an understanding of the market’s complexity may lead to more informed decisions.

[p1acebo]

Huatey Huatey 

https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archiv...-september

[Huliwang]

Huatey Huatey 

https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archiv...-september

This is a slow bull which walks upward slowly and will take several  years to peak. Ah Butt mistaken it as an elite or expert bear which walks evasively.     

[sgbuffett]

This is a slow bull which walks upward slowly and will take several  years to peak. Ah Butt mistaken it as an elite or expert bear which walks evasively.     

There is no such thing as a slow bull on the China market

Its a fantasy that the market slowly go upand people queue up to enter in an orderly fashion. That is total rubbish.

70% of the market us retail and that is not how retail investors behave...if they smell a bull they will rush in until the herd  runs out of money .and cannibalise each other.

That is how they kill each other in previous bull markets

You want to buy you better be fast and just get in and if any signs of trouble coming get out fast.

A complacent "slow" behavior will not make you big money.

Slowing buying jnto this market is a bad strategy. You slowly buy when market rise fast ...you are actually providing exit pokns for those who got un early and when market correct sharply you are left holding the bag and now have to wait for the market to rise back.

The "slow bull" is a stupid concept those who based their investments on it are just misguidef ...it has never happened in China and won't.

You want to get in ...just get in fast and be prepared to cut.

[p1acebo]

Kateks die pain pain

[p1acebo]

This is a slow bull which walks upward slowly and will take several  years to peak. Ah Butt mistaken it as an elite or expert bear which walks evasively.     

Go up slowly also better to squeeze and stir fry the evil kateks until they cry mother father gao gao 

[forum456]

There is no such thing as a slow bull on the China market

Its a fantasy that the market slowly go upand people queue up to enter in an orderly fashion. That is total rubbish.

70% of the market us retail and that is not how retail investors behave...if they smell a bull they will rush in until the herd  runs out of money .and cannibalise each other.

That is how they kill each other in previous bull markets

You want to buy you better be fast and just get in and if any signs of trouble coming get out fast.

A complacent "slow" behavior will not make you big money.

Slowing buying jnto this market is a bad strategy. You slowly buy when market rise fast ...you are actually providing exit pokns for those who got un early and when market correct sharply you are left holding the bag and now have to wait for the market to rise back.

The "slow bull" is a stupid concept those who based their investments on it are just misguidef ...it has never happened in China and won't.

You want to get in ...just get in fast and be prepared to cut.

look like you are the genius in China/HK market !

[Huliwang]

Go up slowly also better to squeeze and stir fry the evil kateks until they cry mother father gao gao 

Ah Butt very triggered with this slow bull.     

[pinkpanther]

There is no such thing as a slow bull on the China market

Its a fantasy that the market slowly go upand people queue up to enter in an orderly fashion. That is total rubbish.

70% of the market us retail and that is not how retail investors behave...if they smell a bull they will rush in until the herd  runs out of money .and cannibalise each other.

That is how they kill each other in previous bull markets

You want to buy you better be fast and just get in and if any signs of trouble coming get out fast.

A complacent "slow" behavior will not make you big money.

Slowing buying jnto this market is a bad strategy. You slowly buy when market rise fast ...you are actually providing exit pokns for those who got un early and when market correct sharply you are left holding the bag and now have to wait for the market to rise back.

The "slow bull" is a stupid concept those who based their investments on it are just misguidef ...it has never happened in China and won't.

You want to get in ...just get in fast and be prepared to cut.

Ah Butt likes a quickie!

[revealer]

He is a day trader. Advice from him not always good for shorter or longer term investors. Do yr own due diligent if u r not a day trader.

[p1acebo]

Hahahaha

[sgbuffett]

He is a day trader. Advice from him not always good for shorter or longer term investors. Do yr own due diligent if u r not a day trader.

I do hold for  more than one day sometimes depending on market conditions.

.anyway the reason why I decided to do short term trades is because the HSI and HS Tech has abnormally high short term volatility...it is different from other markets.

From the time this thread started until today the.total return of HSI is near zero for the period of more than 1yr yet day traders can squeeze much profits from short term volatility