[sgbuffett]

In early 2022 we slowly emerged from a pandemic that ravaged our economy in the tourism, retail and F&B. But the situation took a turn when Russia decided to invade Ukraine. After that came high inflation that saw everything around us increase in price.

The US Fed started to hiike rates sharply to contain inflation. Singaporeans became FD and treasury warriors hunting for the best rates to park their massive savings. Those who invest in US saw their investments tank 19% (S&P500) and those into tech saw a 37% decline (Nasdaq). 

In all this the STI gain 4% and paid out a decent 3% in dividends still handiliy  beating the FD warriors who were able to get 4% only after middle of the year. A dollar cost averager into the STI should see an extra % of gain as the STI did dip down a few times to allow cheap accumulation.

The China and HK market saw a Asian crisis type fall to lowest valuation in history (for HSI) and then a year end rally. Not for the faint heart but only the seasoned value investors able to navigate the high volatility and use it to their advantage.

2023 will see a carry forward of US market inflation problem for the first quarter of the year. But it will see a sudden resolution after the 1st quarter. At the same time we will see a recession in the US economy. As this is one of the most anticipated recessions it will have a negative but muted impact on the market. I will be looking for bargains in the US market at around the May to June time frame. Not that it will happen for sure but if it comes the shopping list is long.

A good analogy is MSW durians, I avoided them when they were expensive but feasted last few weeks as they sold for record low prices. We may not know when it comes but when it does be ready to take action.

The STI is still good for the conservative investor based on current valuations a total return of 7% per annum is sustainable. Look for dips to buy and again and extra 1-2%. 

As for stock picking, my 2022 stock picks {Link) return 27% this is down from the 37% I obtained for my 2021 picks. I did a scan to find this year's stocks picks and here are my views on various sectors

1. REITs. REITs prices have fallen. Using the durian analogy it is time to buy the best and most resilient. There was a sharp fall in many reits but we want to eat only the Black Thorns and MSW.  We also want reits that are tested under selling pressure for the sector but held up well. I have xompiled a list of such REITs. I will post them here a little later just look out for it.

2. The O&G sector will continue to do well. We are in the 2nd year of sector recovery. We saw a rapid normalisation of prices and willingness of OPEC to cut suppply to maintain prices. There is a 5 yr under investments into exploration and productions....and continued reluctance to invest and boost supply by the sector. Buffett has been buying Exxon... There are many O&G stocks on Sgx most should do well.

3. The property sector will cool off or continue to cools off. We are seeing a sharp plunge in some US states for housing due to mortgage rates hitting 7% If you want to invest here you can find prpeprty stocks in HK and China that have sufferred a prolonged slumo and now at bargain basement. 

4. Semi sector is in a downturn look for a cycle reversal further out. Right now my guess is we are at the middle of the slump and not at the bottom. But there is opportunity here as it sinks further 

5.  Hospitality we should see things going back to normal some hospitality atoxks have risen but still cheap.

I don't see any masive upside given tighter monetary conditions. There are specific sectors  here and there that are good places to invest I'd not the STI is a conservative place to park for decent returns.

[sgbuffett]

The following are REITs pick for 2023 to hold for the coming years. REITs  fell due to sharp interest rate hikes so we get to buy them at a lower price and more sustainable valuation. At the current price one should be able to get good returns in the coming years but you have to buy quality reits that can be kept for the long term.

Let others chase the temporary rise in FD rates. These are good for a short period ....then when rates fall the lobang disappear. ..and reits would have gone up and you won't have a chance.

But you want assets you can hold for the long term and reits are good only if you buy them at the right price ...I was not a fan when the prices were high ...but warmed up when they fell last year.

[debster]

The following are REITs pick for 2023 to hold for the coming years. REITs  fell due to sharp interest rate hikes so we get to buy them at a lower price and more sustainable valuation. At the current price one should be able to get good returns in the coming years but you have to but quality reits that can be kept for the long term.

Let others chase the temporary rise in FD rates. These are good for a short period ....then when rates fall the lobang disappear. ..and reits would have gone up and you won't have a chance.

But you want assets you can hold for the long term and reits are good inky if you buy them at the right price ...I was not a fan when the prices were high ...but warmed up when they fell last year.

What about iReit global and Aims Apac reit?

[sgbuffett]

What about iReit global and Aims Apac reit?

Ireits global - no good ...another one of the REITs that is extractive and value destructive as it raises money for non dpu accretive purchases.

AiMS is okay...not particularly strong.

There are outright bad REITs ..REITs to offload lousy assets to invetaors during periods when REITs are popular and easy to do IPO. You see the REITs dip below iPO price and never come back. That is something like 50-60% of REITs.

There are fraudulent REITs in which assets are not worth much and valuations are inflated such as Eagle and loaded with debt and off loaded to investors.

There are poorly managed REITs.

There are REITs that are used to offload sponsor's slightly overpriced  assets and constantly do dilutive rights issue that are destructive to its value.

As with other stocks one should be very selective a s patient

There are certain  tricks like buying good REITs during bad times...or only REITs under credible sponsors known to establish long term win win relationships with investors.

A few years ago I wrote about this fraudulent REITs called Eagle that injected a property valued at 200M that is actually worth zero called queen Mary into it's portfolio. After that it did an IPO on SGX. The REITs later collapsed leaving investors with nothing.

Later I did more scans on REITs I found that it is not an easy place to invest as it's primary assets are property and particularly difficult to value if asset is overseas. The valuation done by the companybuaing valuers it hired cannot be trusted. 

A few years ago a friend asked if this China REITs call dasin  can buy. Given s chip saga one has to be cautious. I did a check of it's assets of a collection of shopping centers. Based on data sourcing I found capital lands sold a set of similar assets in China ...and price per property was just a fraction of what Dasin valued it's assets. We cannot say for certain because asstss are not at exact locations but with the same tier cities the price was very different. 

Dasin REITs is now having debt refinancing issues. If it's assets are worth what it claims it should be able to sell them and pledge them easily.....but one really suspects. ...