Intel vs AMD stock - the valuation dilemma
#1

Should you buy an expensive stock growing faster or a cheap stock not growing so fast.

If you are chasing a stock for quick gains no doubt AMD is the one.

Suppose your time horizon is 5yrs or 10yrs. Which one?

I like AMD alot because leadership is excellent. But that doesn't meant I will pay any price for the stock.

AMD valuation relative to Intel...has has lower cashflow, lower earnings and much higher price of stock as correctly explained by the video below.

But the thing is since this video is made AMD has gone up by 10% and Intel has fallen by 10%. Cheap becomes cheaper and expensive become more expensive.

I was assessing both companies when I was deciding which one. Using classic analysis the AMD valuation makes no sense at all. Even if it takes the whole Intel market share and Intel shrink to AMD market share the valuation if off. ...but AND keeps going up. 

It's like Tesla...it is now valued above all the top 5 car makers combined but makes only a tiny fraction of the cars they make and much lower profits but investors can project all the wonders  Elon Musk can do and the sky is no limit Tesla went above $1000 yesterday....making all doubters feel silly.




I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#2

very simple, share price will keep going up as profit keeps going up.

buy share that the profit will keep going up
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#3

At a certain point of time, the same dilemma is faced between apple vs nokia, online shopping vs walmart etc..

Every dilemma has a different outcome..

1. I have served the nation in a combat unit for 2.5 + 10 years. I had fulfilled my duty as a citizen, but has the country do it's part for me?
2. I don't know where the threat of CCP is, but I know the threat of CECA is already at my doorsteps
3. I had been called a CCP, JHK, Pinoy, but they never called me a CECA..
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#4

(26-10-2021, 01:16 PM)ArielCasper Wrote:  At a certain point of time, the same dilemma is faced between apple vs nokia, online shopping vs walmart etc..

Every dilemma has a different outcome..

Netflix vs Blockbuster....one disrupter the other disrupted .

I always check for that when I buy make sure don't buy a dying industry getting killed by a disrupter...example is Ckmfort vs Grab but it is a partial disruption.

For AMD vs Intel it is more like Coca Cola vs Pepsi.

Neither company has a clear edge. On 28 Oct Intel will announce a chip that leapfrog AMD...then Jan next Yr AMD will announce next chop to pass Intel.

Eventually innovation will be exhausted and maturity will set in and both companies will share the market so there is no reason for valuation disparity of such size. Intel and AMD both go back to 1970s. AMD is not a disrupter with something very new that just emerged.

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#5

I still go for AMD
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#6

(26-10-2021, 04:21 PM)keys Wrote:  I still go for AMD

Yes because next few months likely to outperform ..

But 5yrs down?...what happens?

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#7

Just for reference as of today Intel vs AMD stock prices is as follows....we will check back in a few months see how each does.

[Image: Bg8l9ye.jpg]

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#8

(26-10-2021, 08:24 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  Just for reference as of today Intel vs AMD stock prices is as follows....we will check back in a few months see how each does.

[Image: Bg8l9ye.jpg]

Intel down again.
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#9

(26-10-2021, 08:24 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  Just for reference as of today Intel vs AMD stock prices is as follows....we will check back in a few months see how each does.

[Image: Bg8l9ye.jpg]
Just an update.
Intel - a despised stock seen as an beaten company.
AMD - a stock with many fans as its 5900 series chip is top notch.

My belief
1. Intel is on par with AMD for chip design. AMD benefits from TSMC advanced manufacturing. Intel will bridge this by letting TSMC manufacture some of its chip.

2. Intel is competitive in all mid and lower end chips.

3. Intel cashflow and profitability is superior to AMD. Intel has lots of cash and money making assets....and Fabs that are worth billions given chip crunch.

4. AMD is not worth the 60% of Intel capitalisation ...my view it is overvalued. 

5. AMD may out perform in short term due to momentum buying but slowly the valuation will adjust 

Latest update:
[Image: mGpS20t.jpg]

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#10

Intel moves very slow until it regain it past glory which will take quite a while. if you don't like to keep watching the price moving up and down, throw money into intel and wait for 5 to 10 years. If you prefer fast money go for AMD but remember to keep monitoring in case it breaks down
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#11

(26-10-2021, 08:24 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  Just for reference as of today Intel vs AMD stock prices is as follows....we will check back in a few months see how each does.

[Image: Bg8l9ye.jpg]
AMD is up 23% Intel is up 2%.

AMD as a hot momentum delivers the returns on the short term


[Image: SR9GeRe.jpg]

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#12

I still prefer intel household name will make a come back.
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#13

(09-11-2021, 05:56 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  AMD is up 23% Intel is up 2%.

AMD as a hot momentum delivers the returns on the short term


[Image: SR9GeRe.jpg]

With this FB collaboration propel AMD, it will be years down the road for Intel price to outperform AMD. While Intel is safer play, one lose out on AMD immediate gain.
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#14

(26-10-2021, 08:24 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  Just for reference as of today Intel vs AMD stock prices is as follows....we will check back in a few months see how each does.

[Image: Bg8l9ye.jpg]
the situation unfolds with intel +2% and amd -10%.,,,in recent market turmoil.
what can one learn here?

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#15

(26-10-2021, 08:24 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  Just for reference as of today Intel vs AMD stock prices is as follows....we will check back in a few months see how each does.

[Image: Bg8l9ye.jpg]

What happen 5 months later .....
Look at how the stock behaved ....when I started this Thread the popular thinking was AMD is winning INTC business.

AMD is down 30%.
INTEL is down 7%

AMD is still leading NTEL but it does not matter to investors.
Why?


[Image: ODvHMpq.jpg]

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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