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俄烏戰後的去全球化

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[cityhantam]

https://m.guancha.cn/yanmo/2022_06_21_645593.shtml
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雁默：俄乌战后的去全球化，最大输家是中国？

来源：观察者网

2022-06-21 08:26

雁默
雁默作者

台湾自由撰稿人

【文/观察者网专栏作者 雁默】

去全球化的议题谈了好几年，并总是围绕着中国打转，从西方民粹兴起，新冠疫情，到俄乌冲突，每一次西方都大量涌现“去全球化=中国要完”的预测模型，但西方经济学者的表现是——都不大信。

在同一事件上有完全冲突的看法，是经济领域的常态，这门学问好像不大靠得住。所幸，经济学的任务是预测，而预测是可以检验结果的。

在民粹的面向上，中美贸易战后的去全球化预测，没有成真；在新冠疫情的面向上，似乎也没有预测者说的那么夸张；现在，轮到俄乌冲突，类似的预测又大行其道。

论者曰：俄乌战后的去全球化，最大输家是中国。

以前两次预测与检验结果的落差可见，许多去全球化论点，或多或少都带有那么点期待中国跌倒的兴奋感，情绪诱导资料分析，以致产生明显误差。受情绪干扰，是所有分析者的通病，没有人能例外，但我们总得从误判中学到些什么。

过于简化的分析，不能搭配过于大胆的假设，然而，大胆假设，“粗”心求证的例子在全球化议题里可不少见，本文就说明下此类论述逻辑中的几个假设步骤，每个假设乍看都有理，但经不起推敲。

.......

比较真实的全球化前景

去全球化的初衷与目标，是最大程度实现自给自足。而其最大的问题就是，那要付出多大代价？尤其是对那些天然资源匮乏的经济体——如日本——代价难以估量。

现在去全球化论者看着俄乌冲突后西方团结的表象，乐乎乎重申己见，并猴急地下了结论，认为中俄无可避免地会被西方孤立。这是大胆假设，粗心求证，选择性摘选数据以符合偏狭理论，莫说结果必然经不起检验，连理论本身都自相矛盾。

不过，话说回来，中国面临的挑战确实是严峻的，作为全球化最大受益者之一，从疫情到俄乌冲突接连的意外，都在考验目前的全球化，且明显地，许多经济体已承受不了重压，而想改变供应链结构。

重点是，改变结构的时间要拉多长，才能缓解改变所带来的痛苦？

关于全球化，比较接近现实的说法是：全球化可能已过了顶峰，它正在缩小或变形，但过程缓慢。当然有论者将此现象形容为去全球化的开端，但没人说得清其最终结果。

全球化并没有衡量指标，这意味着任何改变现状的发展，都能随意称之为去全球化，因此这概念本身并没有可靠的实质内容，只有修辞上的意义。

万全的想法是，全球化必然将经历比自然演变稍快的调整，对于一些“没有会死”的供应链，如粮食、能源，各经济体都会想办法找出更安全的重构途径，无论是自给自足，或是多元布局以分散风险。如何在现有的基础上因应新情势，是所有经济体的共同挑战，而不是中国独有的挑战。

个人认为，普京确实促成了多极化世界，未来或可能是以天然资源与原料为核心形成多极，因此传统的区分也同样会被解构，如欧洲，可能就不再会是一个整体，毕竟，德、法被波兰与立陶宛持续绑架的未来情景，实在难以想象。

美国在所有传统区块都想搞派系化，以解离出“美国队”，唯有天然资源与原料的拉力，能有效抗阻这个偏狭的人造结构。

因此，去全球化论者该注意的输家不是中国，反是传统意义上的西方，是否正面临分崩离析，被去全球化谬论误导至死巷里。
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[[[ForeverAlone]]]

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 When the United States weaponizes it's dollar and it backfires. When large countries like Russia and China do trade in their own currency. When American allies like India, Germany, Italy buy Oil and Gas from Russia using the Russian Rouble. Then the American government can finally see that they are losing confidence and the battle for world domination.

[kokee]

china steal technology, copy cat, rob & spy!
If not the west technology transfer, transfer their production to china, where is china today?
If not US 2 atomic bomb into japan in WW2, china today rule under japan & all china people study japanese language today.
If not the help of the west & japan!! all these disgraceful comie dogs her, LOL LOL!





美国彻底干翻中国

[kokee]

china can only rely on steal technology from US & the west in last 50-60 yrs.
not only in military weapons, almost everything in life, just a copy cat, whatever US is doing, they follow like a dog!
but they just leap jump without base, no patent, no copy right, no experience, no core & mindset! yet ccp cannot let their people to have free mind & thinking, must be brainwash to easy to control like robot!




解放軍的軍力頂多相當於美軍的20%

[Omnipresent88]

china steal technology, copy cat, rob & spy!
If not the west technology transfer, transfer their production to china, where is china today?
If not US 2 atomic bomb into japan in WW2, china today rule under japan & all china people study japanese language today.
If not the help of the west & japan!! all these disgraceful comie dogs her, LOL LOL!





美国彻底干翻中国

Shameless bankrupt Pitiful jealous kokee 


Who let the slave kokee out woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof 

https://media.tenor.com/images/95ae06947...2FuZHJvaWQ 
National scum Shameless bankrupt Pitiful jealous kokee howling scare panic desperate dog

[kokee]

whole world know how bad is china economy today, also how bad is china banks & property issue, ton of banks & developers are bankrupting, defaulting debt, whole country has no money, no order, no jobs, debt burst everywhere, china & domino effect on everything.
due to political fight between Xi & Li, no one bother china economy now, just want to make sure they can be president, bubble continue to burst, debt continue to rotten, banks continue to close down, economy continue to collapse.
let hope the fight drag on till ccp collapse!!




中共20大前外松内紧

强制停贷拖银行下水

when whole world hike rate so fast & steep yet china cant even hike 1 basis pt plus still need to print to survive, you know how bad is china debt & cash flow situation today!

china debt today is super gigantic, china debt to GDP is much much higher than US, comie liars here 7/24 bark US debt is US$30 trillion, US economy collapse, compared to US, china total debt is easily 500-1000% higher than US.
china now, no money, from individual to company to country & no one know all the printed $$ in last 10-15 yrs gone where? last few yrs, china printed more than US!! US print USD is for global to use as reserved, trading & petrol $$ yet china RMB only for china to BS!
china supply chain also totally gone & move oversea now! jobless like crazy, most factories out of china just a matter of time!





内地政府負債率超GDP300% 公務員 教師薪水都拖欠 走上街頭抗議！供應鏈 資金鏈 全部出問題 内地斷供停貸潮 系统性風險難以阻擋

[Omnipresent88]

when whole world hike rate so fast & steep yet china cant even hike 1 basis pt plus still need to print to survive, you know how bad is china debt & cash flow situation today!

china debt today is super gigantic, china debt to GDP is much much higher than US, comie liars here 7/24 bark US debt is US$30 trillion, US economy collapse, compared to US, china total debt is easily 500-1000% higher than US.
china now, no money, from individual to company to country & no one know all the printed $$ in last 10-15 yrs gone where? last few yrs, china printed more than US!! US print USD is for global to use as reserved, trading & petrol $$ yet china RMB only for china to BS!
china supply chain also totally gone & move oversea now! jobless like crazy, most factories out of china just a matter of time!





内地政府負債率超GDP300% 公務員 教師薪水都拖欠 走上街頭抗議！供應鏈 資金鏈 全部出問題 内地斷供停貸潮 系统性風險難以阻擋

Shameless bankrupt Pitiful jealous kokee 

Who let the slave kokee out woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof 


https://media.tenor.com/images/7912e1525...2FuZHJvaWQ 

National scum Shameless bankrupt Pitiful jealous kokee howling scare panic desperate

[cityhantam]

上合組織去美元化 將發揮多大威力? 2022 0801

[kokee]

china no more money, property price crash super hard, almost all already stop paying for their housing loan, abandon & run road, banks run, banks stop withdrawing money, no more trust & confidence. jobless surges yet no more jobs due to factories move out of china expedite now, no orders, cancel order, global going to cut off tie with china in time to come! bond default, stock crash hard in both china & HK, HKD unpeg in danger now, cash flow so tight, cant hike rate, print non stop.
RMB totally crash is just a matter of time!

almost all china company listed in US will be delisted eventually & soon!
look at HSI market today, you know what will happen to all these china company once they delisted from US market.
almost all foreign funds & investment will pull  out of HK too, with HKD unpeg likely in near future, better be fast!



阿里巴巴完蛋了！150家中国企业面临被美国退市！抖音TikTok拒绝大外宣账号求自保？英国企业纷纷开始跟中国脱钩，美国进一步限制芯片设备出

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司马南 | 美元问题讨论之三：不是中俄，美国自个把美元拉下神坛
.
....

[Omnipresent88]

china no more money, property price crash super hard, almost all already stop paying for their housing loan, abandon & run road, banks run, banks stop withdrawing money, no more trust & confidence. jobless surges yet no more jobs due to factories move out of china expedite now, no orders, cancel order, global going to cut off tie with china in time to come! bond default, stock crash hard in both china & HK, HKD unpeg in danger now, cash flow so tight, cant hike rate, print non stop.
RMB totally crash is just a matter of time!

almost all china company listed in US will be delisted eventually & soon!
look at HSI market today, you know what will happen to all these china company once they delisted from US market.
almost all foreign funds & investment will pull  out of HK too, with HKD unpeg likely in near future, better be fast!



阿里巴巴完蛋了！150家中国企业面临被美国退市！抖音TikTok拒绝大外宣账号求自保？英国企业纷纷开始跟中国脱钩，美国进一步限制芯片设备出

Bankrupt loser kokee howling jealous 

Who let the slave kokee out woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof 

https://media.tenor.com/voz99d0-8RMAAAAM...2FuZHJvaWQ 
Kokee go take medication 

National scum Shameless bankrupt Pitiful jealous kokee jealous kokee howling scare panic desperate

[cityhantam]

司马南 | 美元问题讨论之四：在这一点上，美俄印都值得我们学习
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