Why worst is over for China Tech stocks it does not matter if you missed the bottom.
#1

It doesn't matter if you had bought it 20-30% higher. 
If you had bought and it sank by 50% you may have to wait longer.. just hang on.

When Nasdaq bubble collapsed.from 6000 many curse they entered at 3000 only to see it fall to 1400 losing more than 50%. But if they had held for the long haul they would make 500% from where they bought. The index is good as you don't depend on a single stock.

For higher risk growth stocks it is common to see a fall of 50% every few years.....the recent China Tech sector saw many stocks cut by half and some more than half.

Alibaba temporarily fell below $68 it's IPO price in 2014 when it was just embarking on its growth journey. Alibaba recently announced it will do a 24B buyback ...24B was the amount it raised during its IPO .

Yes there are some headwinds it's ecommerce growth appears to be slowing because China's economy is slowing. 
There Is.also competition...competition however has always been there. Perhaps the worst thing is it is highly recommended by value investors the same type of investors who go from one value trap to another accumulating a portforlio full of losers - cheap stocks are cheap for a reason.
For Alibaba to succeed it has to overcome this jinx.

Still I will stick my head out to say the worst for Aliababa and China Tech is behind us for the reason that the capitulation we saw last week is the same type I observe during lehman crisis and 2020 pandemic selloff. I believe it is the same Asian financial crisis collapse.. on the last day of a long period of drop investors give up completely.

If history is anything to go by after a V bounce some of the fears resurface, the market falls again. More investors give up and swear never to touch China tech then it slowly crawl upwards in a wobbly manner. Investors who miss the bottom refuse to buy more. Investors who are seeing losses refuse to add, and very few will maximise the post collapse long-term rally.

I did buy some exact bottom but it was just a small amount as the window was narrow  I believe the real opportunities lies ahead  using history as a guide one can now seize the opportunity to build up a portfolio. Provided one can overcome the emotional hurdles of fear and loses that happened in past few weeks.

[Image: 3BxCgFA.jpg]

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#2

Very few bought after Lehman collapse because they fear more bad news.

Very few bought during Asian financial crisis when STI fell from 2000 to 700...

Very few bought after dot com crash. Very few bought during pandemic crash when STI drop to 2300 now 2yrs later STI is 3400.

It is not life did not give opportunity it is your fear that prevented you from taking the opportunity.

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#3

The Chinese Market "crashed" 3 times in 6 yrs.

It's is a normal feature of the Chinese markets to have sharp deep.selloffs and then recover.

[Image: 0A2EcdX.jpg]

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#4

China market usually have quick , short , spike up. Then very long tail downturn.
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#5

(25-03-2022, 08:49 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  It doesn't matter if you had bought it 20-30% higher. 
If you had bought and it sank by 50% you may have to wait longer.. just hang on.

When Nasdaq bubble collapsed.from 6000 many curse they entered at 3000 only to see it fall to 1400 losing more than 50%. But if they had held for the long haul they would make 500% from where they bought. The index is good as you don't depend on a single stock.

For higher risk growth stocks it is common to see a fall of 50% every few years.....the recent China Tech sector saw many stocks cut by half and some more than half.

Alibaba temporarily fell below $68 it's IPO price in 2014 when it was just embarking on its growth journey. Alibaba recently announced it will do a 24B buyback ...24B was the amount it raised during its IPO .

Yes there are some headwinds it's ecommerce growth appears to be slowing because China's economy is slowing. 
There Is.also competition...competition however has always been there. Perhaps the worst thing is it is highly recommended by value investors the same type of investors who go from one value trap to another accumulating a portforlio full of losers - cheap stocks are cheap for a reason.
For Alibaba to succeed it has to overcome this jinx.

Still I will stick my head out to say the worst for Aliababa and China Tech is behind us for the reason that the capitulation we saw last week is the same type I observe during lehman crisis and 2020 pandemic selloff. I believe it is the same Asian financial crisis collapse.. on the last day of a long period of drop investors give up completely.

If history is anything to go by after a V bounce some of the fears resurface, the market falls again. More investors give up and swear never to touch China tech then it slowly crawl upwards in a wobbly manner. Investors who miss the bottom refuse to buy more. Investors who are seeing losses refuse to add, and very few will maximise the post collapse long-term rally.

I did buy some exact bottom but it was just a small amount as the window was narrow  I believe the real opportunities lies ahead  using history as a guide one can now seize the opportunity to build up a portfolio. Provided one can overcome the emotional hurdles of fear and loses that happened in past few weeks.

[Image: 3BxCgFA.jpg]

Shanghai lockdown, this will retest low again 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/sha...ng-2589436
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#6

Hope u are right, I bought and it go lowerSad
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#7

(28-03-2022, 05:30 AM)victortan Wrote:  Hope u are right, I bought and it go lowerSad

Any stock you bought has 50% chance of going lower in the short term

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#8

Ali-bye-bye or Ali-buy-buy


I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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