[Zannn]

The CSOP appears to have slippage.
The HS Tech was up 1.96% but the 2x is up 3.7% instead of 3.92% ...difference is .22%...this is not small.

Will track to monitor if the slippage is only on upside only or downside also.

As the swaps and various derivatives used are just approximate 2x some difference exists but it has to be same on both directions

Both up n down shd be same slippage

[roguetrader]

Bro, i no understand your slippage but your pricing of the etf like not same as my live hk pricing, is this the reason why the % different?

[dynamite]

No.

You miss the boat many times Liao. Many of my purchases make 50-60% within a year.

[sgbuffett]

You miss the boat many times Liao. Many of my purchases make 50-60% within a year.

Very good. Any others do share  I am not so keen on YZJ after the split

[sgbuffett]

This is not recommended for non professional investors due to risks.

However after studying the characteristics of these products, I worked out when js the best time to buy them and under what circumstances.

A 2x product doubles the underlying % movement on q daily basis....note it is  "daily" so over longer period like 1 month it is not 2x. This is what makes it interesting.

Here are my findings:

1. If we model it mathematically a 2x product has the same distribution as the underlying with double standard deviation.

2. If stock market is purely random walk the 2x product is just double the return of the underlying..or double the % loss.

3. However the gains and losses are greatly amplified by lengths of consecutive days of gains and losses. During periods of prolonged trends the gains and losses are much bigger than 2x it deviate to go 5x.

To understand the last point see the chart below.
The HS Tech went up 100% in 2020-2021. But the 2x went up 600% not 200%. This is because the there were many consecutive up days.

Using above, I ran through past data on China and HK margin trading data to correlate between consecutive up days and margin debt levels. The correlation is complex but j found when margin debt hits a lower bound threshold it will build up once market reverse and this is condition where we get consecutive up days.

Using this I made my purchases last Friday in US market and today in HK markets. My entry price given below.

I will update how the trade goes in coming weeks.

CSOP 2x has reached $1.66. A total gain of 10% from yesterday morning when I bought.

Going forward it will depend on number of consecutive up days.

[sgbuffett]

The CSOP appears to have slippage.
The HS Tech was up 1.96% but the 2x is up 3.7% instead of 3.92% ...difference is .22%...this is not small.

Will track to monitor if the slippage is only on upside only or downside also.

As the swaps and various derivatives used are just approximate 2x some difference exists but it has to be same on both directions

I did more checks on CSOP 2x.

The product is not good....

The underlying went down 0.4% today if should go down by 
0.8% instead it was down 2+%.  It is off by more than 1% in a single day!!!! This js horrendous .

I have sold off the CSOP and will put the proceeds into Direxion 2x. The US based Direxion is much better constructed.

[Zannn]

I did more checks on CSOP 2x.

The product is not good....

The underlying went down 0.4% today if should go down by 
0.8% instead it was down 2+%.  It is off by more than 1% in a single day!!!! This js horrendous .

I have sold off the CSOP and will put the proceeds into Direxion 2x. The US based Direxion is much better constructed.

Don’t forget when upside CSOP also perform better than underlying. All these works about the same upside and downside in terms of %. As long u catch the uptrend/ much more up days/, u will make much more than 2x, vice versa. So impt is weather u catch the right time to ride up or not, the leverage tools are about the same. U can consider Soc Gen DLC but it’s higher risk n gain.

[Zannn]

CSOP 2x has reached $1.66. A total gain of 10% from yesterday morning when I bought.

Going forward it will depend on number of consecutive up days.

On hindsight u may have enter at the current peak. From 20k within 5 days up 1.5k. Now with US pulling down, it shd be a downtrend short term. Unless there is stimulus from ccp

[Blin]

I said US market is overvalued and only started falling.

The HK tech has fallen for 18 months already and it is a Different situation!!!!

US and HK/China are Different  markets ...understand?

u about to spot weakness in the system therefore can leeched.sucking  easy money..

[sgbuffett]

The Direxion 2x is much more consistent and far better that the CSOP 2x listed in HK. Mot all 2x products are made the same. Unfortunately the ETF maker does not explain how their products are synthesised.
Up 4.5% today.


What happened yesterday was the direxion 2x did reverse split of 1 for 10. I purchased at $5.4 after reverse split and some gains the price is now $60. The number of shares I own is reduced by 90%. Fractional shares were converted to cash.

[sgbuffett]

Up 10% today.

2x are up total 25+% as HS Tech runs up serially
As with the modelling jit will compound serially and potential give massive gains.

[sgbuffett]

I did more checks on CSOP 2x.

The product is not good....

The underlying went down 0.4% today if should go down by 
0.8% instead it was down 2+%.  It is off by more than 1% in a single day!!!! This js horrendous .

I have sold off the CSOP and will put the proceeds into Direxion 2x. The US based Direxion is much better constructed.

If you compare how the pricing changed for the 1x and 2x
Until today.

The 2x is up 18.1%.
The 1x is up 9.2%

There is a slippage of 0.3% for the CSOP product

[Zannn]

If you compare how the pricing changed for the 1x and 2x
Until today.

The 2x is up 18.1%.
The 1x is up 9.2%

There is a slippage of 0.3% for the CSOP product

Dixeron no slippages?

[sgbuffett]

Dixeron no slippages?

Totally no slippage.for yesterday. Suppose to rise by 11.62% it went up 11.63%

Quality of such products in terms of tracking accuracy is something to considered. J should have been more careful in my evaluation. I would have picked up the difference between the US one and HK one and avoided having to switch to fix the issue.

[Zannn]

Totally no slippage.for yesterday. Suppose to rise by 11.62% it went up 11.63%

Quality of such products in terms of tracking accuracy is something to considered. J should have been more careful in my evaluation. I would have picked up the difference between the US one and HK one and avoided having to switch to fix the issue.

Did u check the last closing price for Direxion? It could be result from previous close ( the day before) did not reach index/ market price (due to no trades done near closing). So when closing yesterday (it matches trade at closing) it actually saw more gains?

Krane track index and therefore usually more accurate due to liquidity of trades where Direxion more illiquid due to higher risk.

[Cmpunk]

Bro Butt you still think US market heading down?

[sgbuffett]

Bro Butt you still think US market heading down?

I just know this
It is not cheap.

It is at best fair value jf there is no recession and overvalued if there is a recession and has to come down.

Based on CAPE It is overvalued
Based.on excess yield CAPE It is slightly expensive...just above fair value.

Based on 10yr average PE the forward PE ka sitting on average.

You can say it js half full or half empty.

If long term doing DCA just continue.

If you want a good entry point, it doesn't look like one. Because if it moves up fast it quickly becomes overvalued.

So I am not buying.

[WhatDoYouThink?]

aiya investment/trading is not about cheap/expensive, it's whether it'll go up further and you go in now, or wait and hope it'll come down. because high still can go higher, cheap still can go cheaper, like yishun and bishan hdb flats. how cum guru aso duno that

[sgbuffett]

I noticed the Direxion 2× product is far tighter than CSOP 2x.

Quite often more more than 2x the underlying when going up.  I am up 33%.for my 2x .....but what interests me is more the modelling behind this product.




Anyway  was doing the maths you can create a 2x product by using margin. You have $100 of index you borrow $100 to buy another $100. You will have $200 of index and $100 of debt to give net asset of $100. A one 1% movement will cause your net asset to rise by 2%. Everyday you buy or sell the index (by adding or subtracting debt) to maintain net asset to debt at a ratio of 1 to 1. This would be an easy efficient way to create a 2x product

After looking at the above. If you look at a singapore margin account, with $40 of stock you can borrow $100 to buy giving a total of $140 worth of stock. If stock goes up 1% the net asset will rise by 3.5% ....it is a 3.5x product.


Basically you can create your own 2x or 3x product by using a margin account....up to 3.5x

[Zannn]

I noticed the Direxion 2× product is far tighter than CSOP 2x.

Quite often more more than 2x the underlying when going up.  I am up 33%.for my 2x .....but what interests me is more the modelling behind this product.




Anyway  was doing the maths you can create a 2x product by using margin. You have $100 of index you borrow $100 to buy another $100. You will have $200 of index and $100 of debt to give net asset of $100. A one 1% movement will cause your net asset to rise by 2%. Everyday you buy or sell the index (by adding or subtracting debt) to maintain net asset to debt at a ratio of 1 to 1. This would be an easy efficient way to create a 2x product

After looking at the above. If you look at a singapore margin account, with $40 of stock you can borrow $100 to buy giving a total of $140 worth of stock. If stock goes up 1% the net asset will rise by 3.5% ....it is a 3.5x product.


Basically you can create your own 2x or 3x product by using a margin account....up to 3.5x

Hs Tech up at most 10% from yr tread start date. Moreover it went up n down diminishing the upside compounding, plus some cost deducted from next day pricing everyday. How can yr 2x be up 33%??

[sgbuffett]

Hs Tech up at most 10% from yr tread start date. Moreover it went up n down diminishing the upside compounding, plus some cost deducted from next day pricing everyday. How can yr 2x be up 33%??

I purchased Direxion 2x@$5.4 there was a reverse split to combine 10 to 1. So my buying price is 54. Bought on 10 May.

Yesterday Direxion reached $72+.

My return profit is $18. 18/54 =33%.

The underlying for the Direxion 2x is Krane CSI China Internet . It is up 15% during the same period.

If you catch the exact recent bottom of the 2x which was 44 in May and ride it up to the peak which is 79. the return is 80%.

[Zannn]

I purchased Direxion 2x@$5.4 there was a reverse split to combine 10 to 1. So my buying price is 54. Bought on 10 May.

Yesterday Direxion reached $72+.

My return profit is $18. 18/54 =33%.

The underlying for the Direxion 2x is Krane CSI China Internet . It is up 15% during the same period.

If you catch the exact recent bottom of the 2x which was 44 in May and ride it up to the peak which is 79. the return is 80%.

Krane CSI n HS tech has identical compositions?

[sgbuffett]

The performance of the two 2X products shown below.
I have previously explained how you can create a 2x to 3.5x investment using margin.

The Direxion product is is tracking very tightly and for some reason performs better than 2X.

The CSOP has fairly large slippage and it is a good thing is switched everything to Direxion.

There some artefact of the 2x funds trying to rebalance at the end of each day. You cannot do this exactly at the close so it js done before the close. I believe there is a gap between them doing the rebalancing and actual closing can cause some deviation. 


To date my 2x investments are up 40% in less than 4 weeks due to strong performance of China Tech sector

[Zannn]

The performance of the two 2X products shown below.
I have previously explained how you can create a 2x to 3.5x investment using margin.

The Direxion product is is tracking very tightly and for some reason performs better than 2X.

The CSOP has fairly large slippage and it is a good thing is switched everything to Direxion.

There some artefact of the 2x funds trying to rebalance at the end of each day. You cannot do this exactly at the close so it js done before the close. I believe there is a gap between them doing the rebalancing and actual closing can cause some deviation. 


To date my 2x investments are up 40% in less than 4 weeks due to strong performance of China Tech sector

Dude told u to cut yr 2x did u cut or still holding? Bad fall n more to come le

[Sharexchange]

Crash......bad

[Cmpunk]

Your call on Sunright previously losing money leh

[teaserteam]

Jing jialat after China introduced the new basic laws.  Breaking support every time.

[Zannn]

The performance of the two 2X products shown below.
I have previously explained how you can create a 2x to 3.5x investment using margin.

The Direxion product is is tracking very tightly and for some reason performs better than 2X.

The CSOP has fairly large slippage and it is a good thing is switched everything to Direxion.

There some artefact of the 2x funds trying to rebalance at the end of each day. You cannot do this exactly at the close so it js done before the close. I believe there is a gap between them doing the rebalancing and actual closing can cause some deviation. 


To date my 2x investments are up 40% in less than 4 weeks due to strong performance of China Tech sector

China said no agressive stimulus plus maintain zero Covid. Plus high interest rate = HS tech going to retest last low very jialat.