Last month over territory controlled by Russia, three of its military aircraft were shot down or damaged. Ukraine’s ground-based air defenses showed their long reach. In another surprise, they have denied overall air superiority to Russia. An air defense revolution may be shaping how Ukraine and perhaps even NATO fight.
Since the Cold War, air defenses have ridden revolutions in microelectronics and computing. Radars detect aircraft at longer ranges. Surface-to-air missiles fly farther. High-value aircraft – such as airborne warning and control, and aerial refueling – retreat to safe distances. Modern aircraft need electronic warfare support to penetrate defended air space. Ukraine’s stealthy cruise missiles paired with radar-jamming MALD missiles have blinded Russian air defenses, but they are few in numbers.
Last month over territory controlled by Russia, three of its military aircraft were shot down or damaged. Ukraine’s ground-based air defenses showed their long reach. In another surprise, they have denied overall air superiority to Russia. An air defense revolution may be shaping how Ukraine and perhaps even NATO fight.
Since the Cold War, air defenses have ridden revolutions in microelectronics and computing. Radars detect aircraft at longer ranges. Surface-to-air missiles fly farther. High-value aircraft – such as airborne warning and control, and aerial refueling – retreat to safe distances. Modern aircraft need electronic warfare support to penetrate defended air space. Ukraine’s stealthy cruise missiles paired with radar-jamming MALD missiles have blinded Russian air defenses, but they are few in numbers.
Prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, some observers foresaw that Russia’s air force would reign. Its best aircraft see and shoot farther than Ukraine’s and have countermeasures. It was not to be. Even Ukraine’s Soviet-era air defenses, including long-range S-300s, frighten off Russian aircraft. U.S.-supplied Patriots reach deep into Russian-controlled airspace, recently downing expensive A-50 early warning and battle management aircraft.
In Ukraine’s air war, neither side can overfly the other with impunity. Russian helicopter gunships provide some close air support to ground forces, but not enough to turn the tide. As a result, both sides are turning more to artillery and kamikaze drones to support ground operations. Offensive operations are undercut by the absence of air superiority.
Air defense has pushed manned combat aircraft to standoff distances that reduce their effectiveness and lethality. Partially as a result, ground fights may contest only hundreds of meters of territory. Engagement distances of maneuver forces can be below maximum ranges of their weapons systems. Some tank-on-tank skirmishes occur within a stone’s throw of one another.
Protected by an air defense shield, Russian forces in occupied territories have constructed the “most extensive” system of tank ditches, minefields, and other defensive works in Europe since World War II. Lacking close air support, Ukraine’s counter-offensive struggled to breach fortifications. Without it, the kind of sweeping gains Ukrainian ground forces sometimes made in the first year of fighting might be less likely.
Last winter large-scale Russian missile and drone strikes damaged over half of Ukraine’s power infrastructure, leaving many civilians without heat, water, or electricity. Now, Ukrainian forces down most Russian missiles and drones. But enough get through to wreak localized but severe hardships. While U.S.-origin Patriots are destroying some Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, some others might be hard to destroy.
High-end air defense interceptors like Patriot at $4 mil a copy, can cost more than civilian targets to protect or missiles can threaten them. Layered defenses are more cost-effective. They mixes of more or less expensive air defenses, of defenses with varying strengths. In future, innovative guns and directed energy weapons might offer lower costs per shot & higher probabilities of kill for short-range defense. Use of sophisticated Stinger interceptors to take down cheap drones is wasteful.
Ukraine war can shine a brighter light on challenges facing NATO fighting in modernization has counted on local air superiority as precursor to ground operations. But capable, as Russian air defenses threaten non-stealth aircraft like F-16, Rafale, or Typhoon, designed in 1970s & 1980s, upgraded since. They maybe able to try penetrate defended airspace without assuming significant risk, as seen in some of Ukraine’s air operations.

Air Defense Shapes Warfighting in Ukraine Is
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