Ukraine is not losing but holding its own. The situation on the front line
Has to tried to add dose of common sense to restrain much of the doom &gloom has infected reporting of the war in Ukraine. We had been hearing quite dramatic stories of Russian breakthroughs and Ukrainian forces seemingly on the brink of collapse. (A lot seems to come from those want Russian to perform well, either to reinforce early analysis or b'cos they would like to see a deal forced on Ukraine to allow Putin to declare a victory.)
Reality is far less drama, Russian advances have been limited, no sign of an ability to exploit, assuming ammunition gets to Ukraine in the numbers promised, Russians have difficulty advancing in future, not less. One can try show what has changed (or really not changed) in battle line over week or talk about what might actually be most important strategic story of last 4-mths (which is not what you think).
Russia/Ukraine fight, race against each other with Russia trying to take territory b4 US started flowing into Ukraine (while Ukrainians were having to fight with major shortage of supplies). Ukraine, on one hand, was trying access to those supplies to get them to the front. Now, how aid actually reached front easy to know – it might not be much as of yet. However US aid has reached front in bulk, the Russian advances have slowed down for last few days hardly progressed at all.
May 2 (Thurs), Russian forces made a small advances & crucially of the easiest kind no making or attempt to exploit their breakthrough into Ocheretyne, but actually just tried to consolidate their tiny advance. They either lacked the ability or will to try exploitation on advance. (Thurs) has no advance of any (noted), the situation at Chasiv Yar witnessed even less change. So, we has seen in last week no successful attempt, no assumed a powerful improving Russian army making a successful advance on a Ukrainian army which was supposedly in dire straits.
Why is this like that?..Well, it’s probably not b'cos Ukrainian Army is in great shape. They the army is presently underarmed almost under
manned & exhausted, they probably have to make some further small retreats in near future. What it’s down to a combination of 3-factors, continuing advantage of defensive firepower, continual overrating of Russian offensive capacity, & a temporary panic about Ukrainian army which had some evidence – but was significantly overblown.
All stories about Russians being on brink of great success. For instance, all the stories Russians supposedly being on the brink of great success leave out a hard-headed reckoning of state of Russian Army, this latter force has now been built up & wiped out twice since Feb. 24, 2022. Its generating lots of soldiers,obviously not train them to high standard, so losing these new soldiers at a, see horrific clip.
The most up-to-date UK intelligence estimates, for instance, have the Russians losing (assumed killed, missing, seriously wounded) over 465,000 soldiers since the full-scale invasion. These are staggering losses, which will have a serious effect on the new troops being generated.
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/32137