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05-01-2022, 08:20 PM
Martin Sandbu
05 Jan 2022 11:57AM
(Updated: 05 Jan 2022 11:57AM)
......
We have evidently neither controlled the pandemic nor learned to optimise our policy responses, despite two years of experience. There is no excuse for this.
Omicron, like any particular mutation, came unannounced. But the arrival of mutations is a predictable – and predicted – outcome of infections continuing to spread, which the world has failed to prevent.
“Zero-COVID” has not worked, because it has not been tried in enough countries. The few governments with an uncompromising repression strategy have largely succeeded in keeping cases at an enviably minimal level.
They have suffered neither greater economic hardship nor, over time, more onerous deviations from normal behaviour, than countries permitting higher transmission rates.
Quite the contrary: Clamping down harder at the first signs of community contagion makes it possible to ease up sooner and enjoy normal economic activity for longer.
South Korea and New Zealand, for example, have over time had lighter restrictions in place than the UK and parts of the US, and even than Sweden for much of the pandemic.
The greatest cost of zero-COVID strategies – harsh limits on cross-border travel – are only necessary because partner countries have been more tolerant of contagion.
The lack of global commitment may indeed have made zero-COVID unsustainable, though that is hardly a justification for those who actively undermine it.
......
The priority now is to handle the reality that COVID-19 is here to stay.
......
A whole new order of preparedness is therefore imperative. If waves of coronavirus variants, or new pathogens, are likely to hit us regularly, we need a system of emergency responses entrenched in law and practice.
Everyone needs to know these can be triggered at short notice. Our best case future is one where “normality” can be shifted to a crisis regime at the flick of a switch, when contagion intensifies.
......
The advantages of advance plans for pandemic outbreaks are threefold.
First, economic damage is minimised if businesses know exactly which restrictions and support schemes to expect should a pandemic emergency be triggered, and can organise their business model (and insurance) around such an eventuality.
Second, advance planning greatly facilitates government decision-making.
A ready set of measures to be “switched on” in a crisis is vastly preferable to reinventing the wheel each time – and more likely to avoid the errors of hurried decision-making.
......
Third, the previous two advantages would reduce the political cost of acting early. Procrastination has been one of our deadliest enemies. What the examples above show is that it takes more severe restrictions to bring a higher rate of contagion under control.
......
Misunderstanding this is the original sin of politicians who resist restrictions ostensibly for the sake of freedom or economic growth. Both fare better with the occasional swift imposition of a predictable emergency regime for a few weeks than under our current policy mess.
......
Planning for a permanent pandemic, rather than pretending it does not exist, is what learning to live with the virus really means.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commenta...ng-2416041
05 Jan 2022 11:57AM
(Updated: 05 Jan 2022 11:57AM)
......
We have evidently neither controlled the pandemic nor learned to optimise our policy responses, despite two years of experience. There is no excuse for this.
Omicron, like any particular mutation, came unannounced. But the arrival of mutations is a predictable – and predicted – outcome of infections continuing to spread, which the world has failed to prevent.
“Zero-COVID” has not worked, because it has not been tried in enough countries. The few governments with an uncompromising repression strategy have largely succeeded in keeping cases at an enviably minimal level.
They have suffered neither greater economic hardship nor, over time, more onerous deviations from normal behaviour, than countries permitting higher transmission rates.
Quite the contrary: Clamping down harder at the first signs of community contagion makes it possible to ease up sooner and enjoy normal economic activity for longer.
South Korea and New Zealand, for example, have over time had lighter restrictions in place than the UK and parts of the US, and even than Sweden for much of the pandemic.
The greatest cost of zero-COVID strategies – harsh limits on cross-border travel – are only necessary because partner countries have been more tolerant of contagion.
The lack of global commitment may indeed have made zero-COVID unsustainable, though that is hardly a justification for those who actively undermine it.
......
The priority now is to handle the reality that COVID-19 is here to stay.
......
A whole new order of preparedness is therefore imperative. If waves of coronavirus variants, or new pathogens, are likely to hit us regularly, we need a system of emergency responses entrenched in law and practice.
Everyone needs to know these can be triggered at short notice. Our best case future is one where “normality” can be shifted to a crisis regime at the flick of a switch, when contagion intensifies.
......
The advantages of advance plans for pandemic outbreaks are threefold.
First, economic damage is minimised if businesses know exactly which restrictions and support schemes to expect should a pandemic emergency be triggered, and can organise their business model (and insurance) around such an eventuality.
Second, advance planning greatly facilitates government decision-making.
A ready set of measures to be “switched on” in a crisis is vastly preferable to reinventing the wheel each time – and more likely to avoid the errors of hurried decision-making.
......
Third, the previous two advantages would reduce the political cost of acting early. Procrastination has been one of our deadliest enemies. What the examples above show is that it takes more severe restrictions to bring a higher rate of contagion under control.
......
Misunderstanding this is the original sin of politicians who resist restrictions ostensibly for the sake of freedom or economic growth. Both fare better with the occasional swift imposition of a predictable emergency regime for a few weeks than under our current policy mess.
......
Planning for a permanent pandemic, rather than pretending it does not exist, is what learning to live with the virus really means.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commenta...ng-2416041
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