[Manthink]

In most of CSIS’s simulations, the two forward carriers either sank to the bottom of the Pacific Ocean within the first four days of fighting, or suffered so much damage that their skippers had no choice but to sail out of the war zone ... for good.

(In one startling) simulation, the U.S. fleet lost four carriers, hundreds of carrier borne aircraft and presumably thousands—if not tens of thousands—of sailors. With dwindling options for relieving the embattled island, Taiwan was on track to lose by the time the war-game organizers called it.

[Niubee]

Anything within 5000km from TW will be knockout.

[Manthink]

CSIS Simulation Report:

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.c...extWar.pdf

[Manthink]

PLA Rocket Force has been working on area-denial solutions against US Pacific Fleet for over a decade

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/201...china-sea/

[Manthink]

A TWnese ex-general shares his view on this CSIS report - He explained he had visited this US-based think tank before and view this report shows US does NOT want to be involved directly in TW matters.

https://youtu.be/HEJoHT9RY04

[singlon]

matter is more than firepower
China is the flywheel the manufacturing
Dying US corporation Dola is dat torque to keep her turning
A method must be found to disengage
already we saw SNB reported 143B loss
,and FRB not sending any money to Treasury
even without China doing anything US will disengage
Americans will not be paying any income tax to feed the dying Dola soon
A Bill is tabled.

[singlon]

U.S. House Republicans vote to go after Biden Justice Department in DC and elsewhere
more than 2 yrs like DAT
meaning China must be quick to disengage
vibrations might be too much and the flywheel flies off
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-hous...023-01-10/

[singlon]

goto1:26:30

there is a plea bargain

[singlon]

[Basic_Strategy]

Dumb shits think it'd be a great victory to sink even a single US carrier.

US supercarriers are such powerful and prestigious military assets that even the destruction of a single one will invite possible nuclear retaliation from the US over them. You sink two to four of them? Get ready to see your entire country turned into glass.

[singlon]

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance...023-01-11/

[cityhantam]

Dumb shits think it'd be a great victory to sink even a single US carrier.

US supercarriers are such powerful and prestigious military assets that even the destruction of a single one will invite possible nuclear retaliation from the US over them. You sink two to four of them? Get ready to see your entire country turned into glass.

You think only Assmerica got nuclear bombs?

[maxsanic]

matter is more than firepower
China is the flywheel the manufacturing

Actually you've touched on a critical point that I find is often not addressed in such wargame simulations, i.e. China's manufacturing prowess. I don't think it's particularly hard for China to churn out thousands of missiles and hundreds of thousands of drones / rockets continously if needed.

These simulations all seem to adopt a static view of things whereby they start off with the current inventory and then end with depletion.

[winbig]

If China starts the fight, she'll lose a lot economically. See Russia is an example. See how the way ganged up and also try to pull nations to their sides to sanction Russia economically. Must use diplomacy and $$to win. Cannot by force unless Taiwan unilaterally declare independence.

[Basic_Strategy]

You think only Assmerica got nuclear bombs?

US has more nukes than China. 

US has no stomach for long wars with high death tolls. BUT that is if the high death toll comes in drips and drabs ala Vietnam War. You make them lose a couple thousand lives in one go like Pearl Harbor or 9/11, they will stop at NOTHING until you are destroyed, doesn't matter if you have nukes because they have far more and their bloodlust will demand full payment. 

China going to war against the US will be the biggest suicide note writing by a country in human history.

[sporeguy]

You think only Assmerica got nuclear bombs?

Now you know the intelligence level or the lack of it of these anti China angmo cock suckers!

They behave like the rednecks absolutely lack knowlege of current affairs and living in the past - still under the delusion that US is almighty! Must ask them so powerful Russia how? No attack by Assmerica? Now you know why he called himself Basic Strategy! He lack IQ totally and of global dynamics!

[Manthink]

Dumb shits think it'd be a great victory to sink even a single US carrier. US supercarriers are such powerful and prestigious military assets that even the destruction of a single one will invite possible nuclear retaliation from the US over them. You sink two to four of them? Get ready to see your entire country turned into glass.

Your view is simplistic. Need to look at a bigger picture....

No nuke armed country ever dare to assume they can achieve  "great victory" in any nuclear exchange - Every one will lose.
TW conflict can easily escalate to WW3 between CN and US, which isn't even a worst case scenario, as other powers like Russia and NATO will be drawn in... Obviously MAD so far has worked...

You got to ask - If US, Russia nor China cannot effort to fight a nuclear war, then why risk getting into a preventable TW conflict when the World and UN already recognised the Island Province as part of China 52 years age after a UN Resolution was passed, which SG was one of the supporter ?



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nat...ution_2758

[Manthink]

Now you know the intelligence level or the lack of it of these anti China angmo cock suckers!
They behave like the rednecks absolutely lack knowlege of current affairs and living in the past - still under the delusion that US is almighty! Must ask them so powerful Russia how? No attack by Assmerica? Now you know why he called himself Basic Strategy! He lack IQ totally and of global dynamics!

Sadly - I have met such Americans, many hardly know the World beyond their towns and cities.
This is made worst when their daily media diet consist of Hollywood scandals and social media wokism.

[debono]

Dumb shits think it'd be a great victory to sink even a single US carrier.

US supercarriers are such powerful and prestigious military assets that even the destruction of a single one will invite possible nuclear retaliation from the US over them. You sink two to four of them? Get ready to see your entire country turned into glass.

This is true, if a US aircraft carrier is being attacked and sunk, chances are it will start a nuclear war, when US will use missiles with nuclear warhead to bomb the aggressor.......

[Manthink]

If China starts the fight, she'll lose a lot economically. See Russia is an example. See how the way ganged up and also try to pull nations to their sides to sanction Russia economically. Must use diplomacy and $$to win. Cannot by force unless Taiwan unilaterally declare independence.

Indeed - but has anyone ask how much are the Chinese prepare to lost economically over TW ?

No one dare to calculate since the China GDP is over x6 of Russia and its economy size 2nd in the World today.

So if Beijing "lost a lot economically" over TW conflict, then what can be said for the rest of the World of USD driven inflation, shaky global supply chain and decoupling trend ?

You think SG can continue to prosper in such senario ?

[Manthink]

This is true, if a US aircraft carrier is being attacked and sunk, chances are it will start a nuclear war, when US will use missiles with nuclear warhead to bomb the aggressor.......

You living on planet X ?

[Niubee]

This is true, if a US aircraft carrier is being attacked and sunk, chances are it will start a nuclear war, when US will use missiles with nuclear warhead to bomb the aggressor.......

USA will bet all showhand for Taiwan?

[cheekopekman]

In most of CSIS’s simulations, the two forward carriers either sank to the bottom of the Pacific Ocean within the first four days of fighting, or suffered so much damage that their skippers had no choice but to sail out of the war zone ... for good.

(In one startling) simulation, the U.S. fleet lost four carriers, hundreds of carrier borne aircraft and presumably thousands—if not tens of thousands—of sailors. With dwindling options for relieving the embattled island, Taiwan was on track to lose by the time the war-game organizers called it.

China dares not attack America one lah!

[Manthink]

Actually you've touched on a critical point that I find is often not addressed in such wargame simulations, i.e. China's manufacturing prowess. I don't think it's particularly hard for China to churn out thousands of missiles and hundreds of thousands of drones / rockets continously if needed.
These simulations all seem to adopt a static view of things whereby they start off with the current inventory and then end with depletion.

A country's industrial power IS a function of global power - even more so during wartime.
US won't have won WW2 if her industry hadn't out produce the Jap and German rivals.
E.g. in WW2, US Navy lost at least  including 12 carriers in Pacific...Their shipyard switched to higher gear pumping out ships from over 700 ships to > 6,000 after 1941 Pearl Harbor attack.

Can US industry do that today ?

[Manthink]

China dares not attack America one lah!

CSIS Report didn't say China "attack America" - It says "TW invasion"

Question u fail to ask is - what interest does US has to risk WW3 over TW ?

[Niubee]

A country's industrial power IS a function of global power - even more so during wartime.

US won't have won't WW2 if her industry hadn't out produce the Jap and German rivals.

E.g. in WW2, US Navy lost at least  including 12 carriers in Pacific...Their shipyard switched to higher gear pumping out ships from over 700 ships to > 6,000 after 1941 Pearl Harbor attack.

Can US industry do that today ?

In Youtube, many Americans has become strawberries salesmen.

[debono]

If China starts the fight, she'll lose a lot economically. See Russia is an example. See how the way ganged up and also try to pull nations to their sides to sanction Russia economically. Must use diplomacy and $$to win. Cannot by force unless Taiwan unilaterally declare independence.

Good input, it is what you have said..................

[Manthink]

In Youtube, many Americans has become strawberries salesmen.

I cannot say whether Americans today have gone "soft"...But I know US military have tough time recruiting "qualified" young pple...

Made worst with published report of many suicides in their armed services...including crews serving onboard US carriers.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/20/polit...index.html

[cheekopekman]

CSIS Report didn't say China "attack America" - It says "TW invasion"

Question u fail to ask is - what interest does US has to risk WW3 over TW ?

If China attacks the American aircraft carriers means attacking USA lah!  There are many American weapons in Taiwan liao leh!

[debono]

I cannot say whether Americans today have gone "soft"...But I know US military have tough time recruiting "qualified" young pple...

Made worst with published report of many suicides in their armed services...including crews serving onboard US carriers.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/20/polit...index.html

In the US aircraft carriers they need to have psychiatrist to counsel those who are potential candidates for suicide cases. but they are few and far between, cos in an aircraft carrier there are 5,000 men and only 3 are suicide cases.........