[sgbuffett]

Stock has had a set back due to semi con shortage causing laptop and PC makers to halt production hence lower demand for its memory chips

I am not worried about this temporary situation which has helped to bring down the stock price.

Long term digitalisation trend  will translate to rising demand for next decade.

Given the long term prospects the stock valuation is undemanding and will rise with the demand.

The market is shared by just a handful of players...no new entrants is possible. Margins will be maintained.


In the past the company experiences boom bust cycles ...the number of companies in the market fell from more than 10 to 3.

Since 2013, industry cycle is shallower... micron was profitable even at bottom of last cycle.(see below)




Moving ahead the rise of AI and 5G means the demand will grow ...in the previous chart I showed the steady growth of the demand ....but the demand may be exponential as AI and analytics drive data collection and storage.

[Blasterlord2]

But why has its price declined despite the shortage in chips? Strange.

[sgbuffett]

But why has its price declined despite the shortage in chips? Strange.

Shortage of other chips means you cannot build a whole system. Micron memory chip is part of the system because of shortage of other chips the demand for memory chips fell.

Why the smartest investors are buying micron:...I made a big mistake not buying at 40+....but recently correction means j was given a 2nd chance.

[Zannn]

Stock has had a set back due to semi con shortage causing laptop and PC makers to halt production hence lower demand for its memory chips

I am not worried about this temporary situation which has helped to bring down the stock price.

Long term digitalisation trend  will translate to rising demand for next decade.

Given the long term prospects the stock valuation is undemanding and will rise with the demand.

The market is shared by just a handful of players...no new entrants is possible. Margins will be maintained.

Stock itself is good but there is better price to buy bro.

[pervertosan]

if u want to go fab…NXPI is a better horse

[Blasterlord2]

if u want to go fab…NXPI is a better horse

You don't understand TS's way of investing. He looks for stocks with prices that have been battered down. Hence he called himself sgbuffet.

NXPI's price is too high at the moment.

[pervertosan]

You don't understand TS's way of investing. He looks for stocks with prices that have been battered down. Hence he called himself sgbuffet.

NXPI's price is too high at the moment.

that isnt the worst style…i often do that with stocks i really like but in this market cycle, 52 week high/low is meaningless..dun ignore better players

[sgbuffett]

if u want to go fab…NXPI is a better horse

Good stocks bad price : Nvidia, AMD, AMSL, NXPI.

It's like iPhone 13... definitely good phone.just that price is high. 

This market is high gets higher, fanboy mentality as in Tesla.People look for good stocks but ignore price.

Chase trend up. Make money.

This type of game is not my game.

On closer examination I find US market bifurcated. There are old names like Intel, Cisco, Micron, etc that are not expensive...in fact good value for money.

So why not chase Bitcoins, Tesla and all the hot stocks?.....to make money in Tesla or Bitcoin, you need to hold through very deep selloffs ....and the fans know so far the stock always come back....so they will never sell when the stock comes down, many will buy more. The future of Tesla is less certain than these people think. So one day stock start a secular downtrend they will stay inside...to wait for bounce...because there is no realistic valuation reference.

Basically many of these high flyers are just bubbles. People don't calculate what they are worth...just only think of price going higher and higher as more people buy.

I track alot of these bubble stocks. For example Zoom. Because of work from home .....this stock became 'hot' and surge from 90 to 600. Then plunge to 285. Many of the fans of the stock will hold for come lback.

[pervertosan]

Good stocks bad price : Nvidia, AMD, AMSL, NXPI.

It's like iPhone 13... definitely good phone.just that price is high. 

This market is high gets higher, fanboy mentality as in Tesla.People look for good stocks but ignore price.

Chase trend up. Make money.

This type of game is not my game.

On closer examination I find US market bifurcated. There are old names like Intel, Cisco, Micron, etc that are not expensive...in fact good value for money.

So why not chase Bitcoins, Tesla and all the hot stocks?.....to make money in Tesla or Bitcoin, you need to hold through very deep selloffs ....and the fans know so far the stock always come back....so they will never sell when the stock comes down, many will buy more. The future of Tesla is less certain than these people think. So one day stock start a secular downtrend they will stay inside...to wait for bounce...because there is no realistic valuation reference.

Basically many of these high flyers are just bubbles. People don't calculate what they are worth...just only think of price going higher and higher as more people buy.

thats the thing…everyone thought NVDA, AMD were overpriced 6 months ago…But if in fact there is a bubble..the crash will not be isolated to them…MU will be dragged along as well…but you build your buffer with the bubble…

not saying MU is wrong, I’m just saying dont look at the the grade of the price chart to judge the others. I have MU options but I hold more NVDA and NXPI..but I did exit AMD far too early.

[sgbuffett]

thats the thing…everyone thought NVDA, AMD were overpriced 6 months ago…But if in fact there is a bubble..the crash will not be isolated to them…MU will be dragged along as well…but you build your buffer with the bubble…

not saying MU is wrong, I’m just saying dont look at the the grade of the price chart to judge the others. I have MU options but I hold more NVDA and NXPI..but I did exit AMD far too early.

I have thought about this....6months ago Tesla people say overvalued...now it is higher...so one can make money no doubt. But along the way very deep corrections which people hang on and keep the faith that it will come back....and many of these hot stocks did.

You ask a good question....if there is a crash even stocks of low valuation sink so risk is the same.

To answer this questions I tracked many "hot stocks" that were "hot favorites" but totally overvalued. Actually many have deflated even as Nasdaq is new at new  high. Stocks like Zoom,  Planet13, Quantumscape, etc.how it happens is the good news from the stocks cannot keep up with stock price, the investors become desensitized, then the valuation comes down.

So the answer is it is not necessary a crash that takes down valuation but investors expecting more and more as stock goes up...when expectations can't  be met the stock gets deflated.

When agre in unusual territory where some overvalued stocks become more overvalued and this phenomena lasted much longer than anytime in past history. The ring leader of this phenomena is Tesla.

Investors are treating this as 'new normal' and invest based on this strategy which has been successful in last few years.

Things can change.

[sgbuffett]

Up 20% in 3 weeks since I bought....and rising...

[Zannn]

Up 20% in 3 weeks since I bought....and rising...

Good call bro. But only this one cheong, yr Intel going neg and yr CBS no eyes see bro going $20+ region. It will stay there for long long time.

[sgbuffett]

Good call bro. But only this one cheong, yr Intel going neg and yr CBS no eyes see bro going $20+ region. It will stay there for long long time.

Intel I am not too worried.

I am actually very positive about Viacom despite the streaming wars, it holds Nichelodeon and Star Trek rights among other interesting content.  There is a lawsuit now due to archegos incident collapse that will dampen it stock price for now temporarily but I am not concerned.

Stocks carry risks and have unpredictable movements.

[sgbuffett]

Good stocks bad price : Nvidia, AMD, AMSL, NXPI.

It's like iPhone 13... definitely good phone.just that price is high. 

This market is high gets higher, fanboy mentality as in Tesla.People look for good stocks but ignore price.

Chase trend up. Make money.

This type of game is not my game.

On closer examination I find US market bifurcated. There are old names like Intel, Cisco, Micron, etc that are not expensive...in fact good value for money.

So why not chase Bitcoins, Tesla and all the hot stocks?.....to make money in Tesla or Bitcoin, you need to hold through very deep selloffs ....and the fans know so far the stock always come back....so they will never sell when the stock comes down, many will buy more. The future of Tesla is less certain than these people think. So one day stock start a secular downtrend they will stay inside...to wait for bounce...because there is no realistic valuation reference.

Basically many of these high flyers are just bubbles. People don't calculate what they are worth...just only think of price going higher and higher as more people buy.

I track alot of these bubble stocks. For example Zoom. Because of work from home .....this stock became 'hot' and surge from 90 to 600. Then plunge to 285. Many of the fans of the stock will hold for come lback.

Today we see a sharp contrast between low valuation tech and high valuation tech.

It is a clear shift for high multiple tech stocks to previously ignored low multiple tech stocks. 

Intel, HP and Cisco..
Old tech companies.ignored in the bull run went up...while overvalued stocks like Nvidia & AMD  went down.

Given the massuve valuation gap...this adjustment will be big.



I also believe there will be adjustments between cheap and expensive markets. Money out of US markets to cheap Asian and emerging markets ....Singapore will be a beneficiary.

It has not happened yet..

[forum456]

Today we see a sharp contrast between low valuation tech and high valuation tech.

It is a clear shift for high multiple tech stocks to previously ignored low multiple tech stocks. 

Intel, HP and Cisco..
Old tech companies.ignored in the bull run went up...while overvalued stocks like Nvidia & AMD  went down.

Given the massuve valuation gap...this adjustment will be big.

I also believe there will be adjustments between cheap and expensive markets. Money out of US markets to cheap Asian and emerging markets ....Singapore will be a beneficiary.

It has not happened yet..

What company platform/system is used by you to buy/trade USA shares ?

[sgbuffett]

What company platform/system is used by you to buy/trade USA shares ?

For long term position and 
 big positions I use only local brokerage either Poems or CIMB. 

For small and short term I use Amrritrade which has zero commission...I used to do everything here.

Reason is I scared kena accident or head injury or sudden end overseas brokerage can be a problem.

I heard many traders give account details and standing instrictions  to wife or siblings in case.

But if buy long term the brokerage commission  doesn't matter much so j use local brokerage....as they are required to report to the govt estate handling dept ..

[Blin]

Good stocks bad price : Nvidia, AMD, AMSL, NXPI.

It's like iPhone 13... definitely good phone.just that price is high. 

This market is high gets higher, fanboy mentality as in Tesla.People look for good stocks but ignore price.

Chase trend up. Make money.

This type of game is not my game.

On closer examination I find US market bifurcated. There are old names like Intel, Cisco, Micron, etc that are not expensive...in fact good value for money.

So why not chase Bitcoins, Tesla and all the hot stocks?.....to make money in Tesla or Bitcoin, you need to hold through very deep selloffs ....and the fans know so far the stock always come back....so they will never sell when the stock comes down, many will buy more. The future of Tesla is less certain than these people think. So one day stock start a secular downtrend they will stay inside...to wait for bounce...because there is no realistic valuation reference.

Basically many of these high flyers are just bubbles. People don't calculate what they are worth...just only think of price going higher and higher as more people buy.

I track alot of these bubble stocks. For example Zoom. Because of work from home .....this stock became 'hot' and surge from 90 to 600. Then plunge to 285. Many of the fans of the stock will hold for come lback.

Deep pocketers np

[sgbuffett]

Quarterly earnings for the record but not as important as people make it out to be.
Long term trajectory is just rising demand and 3 main suppliers ....this will not change in the coming yrs.

[sgbuffett]

Up 10% today as more investors realise demand for memory chips is going up while supply comes from only 3 companies

[sgbuffett]

It has been 2.5% since I purchased Micron..hmm...just realised it sounds like Omicron.

Anyway ...it took off...now up 30%...

[sgbuffett]

Shortage of other chips means you cannot build a whole system. Micron memory chip is part of the system because of shortage of other chips the demand for memory chips fell.

Why the smartest investors are buying micron:...I made a big mistake not buying at 40+....but recently correction means j was given a 2nd chance.

Just to be clear ..my decision to buy Micron is not from purely from my own research. I track most of the interesting investors what they are doing. Most of the time I do not follow what they do but just for knowledge know what strategy they are deploying.  I found that Li Lu bought Micron at $20-$30 ...some yrs ago.

This investment by Li Lu was particularly unusual a I always thought Micron was cyclical and his holding period is typically decades so it made no sense to buy this.

I spent quite a lot tike to understand the memory chip market to understand his thinking for this investment.
.by the tike I was done the stock was $85...shucks I would have to buy  it at nearly  triple Li Lu entry.

I couldn't bring myself to do that.

The pullback was an opportunity....told myself better not miss it.