Tencent announces "poor" earnings - test of investors expectations
#1

How much of the bad news is baked into stock price?

Investors sold down China big tech by 65% on average 
.but it is not clear if the selldown discounted poor results due to govt clampdown and China economic slowdown.

Tencent announced results below expectations of analysts then again analysts have a far higher target price than what the market is trading at....this shows an expectation mismatch.

How tencent moves will say a lot about investor expectations of these companies.

I would expect an initial fall as investors have knee jerk reaction. Then we see the true colors


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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#2

(18-05-2022, 07:27 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  How much of the bad news is baked into stock price?

Investors sold down China big tech by 65% on average 
.but it is not clear if the selldown discounted poor results due to govt clampdown and China economic slowdown.

Tencent announced results below expectations of analysts then again analysts have a far higher target price than what the market is trading at....this shows an expectation mismatch.

How tencent moves will say a lot about investor expectations of these companies.

I would expect an initial fall as investors have knee jerk reaction. Then we see the true colors


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True colour is knee jerk and continue to drop. China side so far talk only no substaintial stimulus.
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#3

(18-05-2022, 10:04 PM)Zannn Wrote:  True colour is knee jerk and continue to drop. China side so far talk only no substaintial stimulus.

The valuations are so low ...the down drift will be slow even if the rescue boat comes late.

The same cannot be said of the Nasdaq

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#4

Tencent fell 6%. Due to mini collapse of US markets the HS Tech Index fell 3%.

It means the disappointing earnings resulted in additional 3% fall.

If you have been watching the show on Nasdaq each time a company miss by even a bit the stock can sink 10-20% easily. Netflix collapsed after it's earnings..

My interpretation is the HS Tech fell for 16 months straight down by 60%. Investors expect poor earnings. Limiting the downside when bad earnings are announced.

Such a phenomenon usually happen at the end of a bear market downturn.

We should be somewhere.near bottom for China Techor bottom already formed However the recovery may be a long drawn process that drags on for many months.

Be patient this will take some time.


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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#5

china blue chips, tencent, alibaba, evergrande & ton more, all down>60%-95% from their top.
so you say HSI & SSE already down how many % from their top if their index or blue chips crash this way.
how about china penny stock if blue chip down 60-95%? down 80-99% or gone?
tencent down from almost 800 to today 340.
Alibaba from 300 to 84, evergrande almost no value liao.
china property is the same from shanghai to 3rd or 5th level city & town, down 60-90%? LOL LOL.
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#6

(19-05-2022, 12:18 PM)kokee Wrote:  china blue chips, tencent, alibaba, evergrande & ton more, all down>60%-95% from their top.
so you say HSI & SSE already down how many % from their top if their index or blue chips crash this way.
how about china penny stock if blue chip down 60-95%? down 80-99% or gone?
tencent down from almost 800 to today 340.
Alibaba from 300 to 84, evergrande almost no value liao.
china property is the same from shanghai to 3rd or 5th level city & town, down 60-90%? LOL LOL.

It's not too difficult.
Just look at debt.

Many laden by debt will collapse.

I invest in debt free positive cashflow companies.
Yes they are in China but a different model

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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#7

Investing shares in chinese counters must b long term.
U can never know the shares' direction unless u r in china deeply involved , connected with their coy n govt politics.
Ups downs r common .
Prudent investors go there cos it's a huge mkt with a hard working hungry pop, potential for max optimisition of their investments in the shortest time frame.
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