[revealer]

S&P earnings are going to fall. So PE ratio remains elevated.

The market is expecting Fed to raise rates by 50% pt from 1% to 1.5%.   If what you've just said can be justified,   then it is "bad news becomes good news".  The market would rejoice tonight.

[Sticw]

Company earnings don't fall as fast;   the forward PE for S&P is still in the rise at least for the 2nd quarter.   Everywhere is now living with Covid except for China.  Countries are opening up for trade to flow.   Business outlooks should look better than before.   

Fed is stuck between rate/QT hikes and economic deterioration,  tonight's decision would be interesting to watch.  Expect the unexpected.

Imagine the real reason why Chinese lasted for thousands of years but not the other races. Others live with virus. Chinese has always been on zero policy... Covid 19 is the 7th time humans got wipeout but each 2k years only the Chinese survived to see the next 2k years... Lol

[revealer]

The US market is close to a rebounce;  it may be a temporary one to cover up the candlestick gaps as the traders never forget to cover up candlestick gaps before except for some special gaps.

The market is expected to make another fall and will not be expected to cover the gaps created as shown immediately.   If the Fed rate hike to be announced is within the expectation,  gaps likely to be covered within next 2 weeks.

[teaserteam]

Market green except for Hang Seng.  This is despite the 0.75% rate hike.  So another dead cat bounce?

[revealer]

No bottom at sight.  Likely to be another dead cat bounce.

[Sticw]

By right that 3 red soldiers very powerful signal of more downward movement. But currency market is saying otherwise for part few sessions...

[revealer]

By right that 3 red soldiers very powerful signal of more downward movement. But currency market is saying otherwise for part few sessions...

True.   One should expect the price to move down afterwards but because of the gaps,  one should expect it to be covered soon.

[simpleman]

No such thing as dead cat bounce

The cat always bounce back up alive

And bounce higher

[p1acebo]

Kateks die pain pain

[teaserteam]

[revealer]

If the aggregated falls this time is large,  it might signal the bottom is getting very very close.

[TalkingRabbit]

wahhh...hitting weekly 200sma soon ~29800

[Sticw]

OK so while the market is correcting, take not that funds not rushing to USD. It may mean that they are shorting down to accumulate and then do a squeeze next week. Be nimble.

[simpleman]

The choice comes down to either hyperinflation or asset deflation

One means carrying on with the addiction of easy money

The other is politically too painful only Volker has done it

Easy money is free money.. Like how was dished out during the lockdowns. Not saying that a second lockdown is necessary to give out free money.

But Biden's sanctions against Russia was simply wrong timing. Or put it another way, Putin picked the "right" time.

[revealer]

If the aggregated falls this time is large,  it might signal the bottom is getting very very close.

Triple witching day. Stay vigilant.

[teaserteam]

处处是地雷

[Yin yang]

Tkk for a quick recovery.

[revealer]

Triple witching day. Stay vigilant

30,000 is a strong support;  if it lost it again,  could look pretty bad.   Guess today might look the same as yesterday.  There was no "stimulus" news and the fear of recession will linger around,  especially after the stock market has just entered the bear market.

[grotesqueness]

in 1929 there is the great depression

you all think it will never happened AGAIN!

THINK AGAIN

the stock market is a CASINO

you dont always WIN when you keep gambling

[simpleman]

in 1929 there is the great depression

you all think it will never happened AGAIN!

THINK AGAIN

the stock market is a CASINO

you dont always WIN when you keep gambling

Why would the Fed raise interest rates until become great depression?

[grotesqueness]

Why would the Fed raise hike until become great depression?

FED can only do so much

FED is NOT GOD

[simpleman]

FED can only do so much

FED is NOT GOD

Fundamentally the high inflation is due to very strong post-Covid consumer demands + too much focus on green energy + sudden fossil fuel supply disruption due to war. 

The Fed is striking a balance between controlling inflation vs preventing a recession. It is in control of how much it wants to tighten. 

It does not have to tame inflation to levels that will crash the economy. The economy can live with a temporary elevated inflation as long as people continue to have jobs. They will then print money to give as handouts to tie over and wait out for the war to end soon.

[revealer]

Fundamentally the high inflation is due to very strong post-Covid consumer demands + too much focus on green energy + sudden fossil fuel supply disruption due to war. 

The Fed is striking a balance between controlling inflation vs preventing a recession. It is in control of how much it wants to tighten. 

It does not have to tame inflation to levels that will crash the economy. The economy can live with a temporary elevated inflation as long as people continue to have jobs. They will then print money to give as handouts to tie over and wait out for the war to end soon.

QT is something very new.   Fed did QT in 2019 but have to abandon it when Covid came.  They might do the same this time but it is anybody's guess at the moment.
Some said the situation today is much different because the 2 US's rivals,  Russia and China are having trouble with the economy.   This might prompt Fed to carry on with the QT even knowing QT is going to cause a recession.  Lets see how.

[revealer]

DOW spent the last hour defending the 30,000 level.. it has just broken it.  If it cannot recover back tonight,    the night is going to look ugly.

[Sticw]

Simpleman is not simple.

Anyway currency front seems to be changing song sheet today vs last 4 days.. don't have a restless weekend. Market is always there...

[Sticw]

Wow you por lumpar really very expert. No wonder ppl say you are a hypocrite

You are free to draw your own conclusion whether I'm a hypocrite or not. Doesn't matter to me. As long as you are happy.

[revealer]

DOW spent the last hour defending the 30,000 level.. it has just broken it.  If it cannot recover back tonight,    the night is going to look ugly.

Expect the unexpected. Double the volume, 2% swing,  lost 30,000 & a flat result. Everybody is happy except there is no sign of a bottom yet.

[simpleman]

QT is something very new.   Fed did QT in 2019 but have to abandon it when Covid came.  They might do the same this time but it is anybody's guess at the moment.
Some said the situation today is much different because the 2 US's rivals,  Russia and China are having trouble with the economy.   This might prompt Fed to carry on with the QT even knowing QT is going to cause a recession.  Lets see how.

Not only did Powell stopped QT during covid, he reversed gear, printed more free money to tie over the lockdowns & brushed aside warnings of inflationary  effects as "transitory". 

Now he reversed gear again trying to undo his actions because the sudden onset of war has turned transitory into panic. 

Former Fed Chief Janet Yellen is now Treasury Secretary. She said on TV "we did not forsee inflation coming". Oops! Doesn't sound so clever to me. 

These Fed & Treasury chiefs are survivors. Afterall they are appointed by Potus. To survive, they do what their boss tell them to. Boss say jump, they say how high. 

Potus has 2 voters base to look after in an election year. The younger ones who complain of high prices and the older guys who have retirement money in stocks. 

He needs to strike the right balance, failing which he may just need to please one over the other to survive the ballot box. Its the older guys who hold more chips.

[revealer]

Not only did Powell stopped QT during covid, he reversed gear, printed more free money to tie over the lockdowns & brushed aside warnings of inflationary  effects as "transitory". 

Now he reversed gear again trying to undo his actions because the sudden onset of war has turned transitory into panic. 

Former Fed Chief Janet Yellen is now Treasury Secretary. She said on TV "we did not forsee inflation coming". Oops! Doesn't sound so clever to me. 

These Fed & Treasury chiefs are survivors. Afterall they are appointed by Potus. To survive, they do what their boss tell them to. Boss say jump, they say how high. 

Potus has 2 voters base to look after in an election year. The younger ones who complain of high prices and the older guys who have retirement money in stocks. 

He needs to strike the right balance, failing which he may just need to please one over the other to survive the ballot box. Its the older guys who hold more chips.

True.  But the QE monies are printed out from the air.  The excess if any will need to be destroyed before they can destroy the economy.  When Trump was the President,  he kept scolding Fed before Mar 2019 about the rate hike and QT.  Did Fed listen to him?  Fed stopped 2019 QT around Nov 2019 only after the repo market jumped 10% in Sept 2019 & long-term yield peaked.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/trum...58927.html

Fed is independent as far as making monetary policy is concerned.  They report monetary matters & policies only to Congress.

https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2019/10/in...al-reserve

[simpleman]

True.  But the QE monies are printed out from the air.  The excess if any will need to be destroyed before they can destroy the economy.  When Trump was the President,  he kept scolding Fed before Mar 2019 about the rate hike and QT.  Did Fed listen to him?  Fed stopped 2019 QT around Nov 2019 only after the repo market jumped 10% in Sept 2019 & long-term yield peaked.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/trum...58927.html

Fed is independent as far as making monetary policy is concerned.  They report monetary matters & policies only to Congress.

https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2019/10/in...al-reserve

So many people warned about printing money out of thin air eversince the GFC. It devalues the dollar, creating the "inflation" phenomenon. But the fed, with the blessings of the ruling class, kept kicking the can down the road because of political expedience. 

Powell was nominated by Trump. Renominated by Biden for a second term. The Senate confirmed his appointment. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/norbertmich...tructured/