[cityhantam]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/...465bd03628

U.S. Recession Already Six Months Old, Says Fed Model

The prospects of a U.S. recession have been rising throughout 2022 as the Fed committed to rate hikes and the yield curve inverted in March. Stocks, now in a bear market, had their worst start to the year since 1970, and inflation has hit 40-year highs. The economic news has not been good.

Q1 2022 GDP growth was negative, suggesting a recession may have started. Now, the Atlanta GDPNow model signals Q2 growth may be negative too. If that forecast holds then the recession that seemed likely on an 18-month view, may be here already.


.....

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is tracking this data, and it looks bad. At the time of writing, roughly a -1% decline in GDP for Q2 is on the cards.

[Niubee]

Jialat.... Kokee's bonus up in the air liao !

[cityhantam]

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-dome...20Analysis.

[victortan]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/...465bd03628

U.S. Recession Already Six Months Old, Says Fed Model

The prospects of a U.S. recession have been rising throughout 2022 as the Fed committed to rate hikes and the yield curve inverted in March. Stocks, now in a bear market, had their worst start to the year since 1970, and inflation has hit 40-year highs. The economic news has not been good.

Q1 2022 GDP growth was negative, suggesting a recession may have started. Now, the Atlanta GDPNow model signals Q2 growth may be negative too. If that forecast holds then the recession that seemed likely on an 18-month view, may be here already.


.....

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is tracking this data, and it looks bad. At the time of writing, roughly a -1% decline in GDP for Q2 is on the cards.

Please dont recession, my portfolio already down 35%.. now we just reopen and so soon want to close shop again,,,, chin jiat lat..

Tua Pek Kong please save our sillypore,

[sgbuffett]

The recession is a US phenomena this time.
Many other parts of the world are STILL recovering from COVID-19 depressed economy ....they are still opening up.

Look at Taiwan. Look at Malaysia. Look at Singapore. There is no recession here because we are still recovering. Our stock market is not even back at pre Covid levels while the US market is 20% above levels before Covid for Nasdaq.

[RiseofAsia]

The recession is a US phenomena this time.
Many other parts of the world are STILL recovering from COVID-19 depressed economy ....they are still opening up.

Look at Taiwan. Look at Malaysia. Look at Singapore. There is no recession here because we are still recovering. Our stock market is not even back at pre Covid levels while the US market is 20% above levels before Covid for Nasdaq.

It is only the beginning nia lah…

[cityhantam]

The recession is a US phenomena this time.
Many other parts of the world are STILL recovering from COVID-19 depressed economy ....they are still opening up.

Look at Taiwan. Look at Malaysia. Look at Singapore. There is no recession here because we are still recovering. Our stock market is not even back at pre Covid levels while the US market is 20% above levels before Covid for Nasdaq.

We are riding on China's growth.

USA and Europe are in trouble.

[RiseofAsia]

We are riding on China's growth.

USA and Europe are in trouble.

Japan also in big trouble…
Korea isgoing to overtake Jap in terms of median income.

[cityhantam]

Japan also in big trouble…
Korea isgoing to overtake Jap in terms of median income.

Japenis leaders are morons!

They thought  Russia dared not whack Japan while Japan can sanction Russia, etc!

[RiseofAsia]

Japenis leaders are morons!

They thought  Russia dared not whack Japan while Japan can sanction Russia, etc!

They never learned their lesson how Russia eliminated 700k of Jap Kwantung Army in WWII.

[cityhantam]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/30/econo...index.html

Who decides if the US is in a recession? Eight White economists you've never heard of

Prominent Wall Street economists like Mark Zandi, investing luminaries like ARK Invest's Cathie Wood and executives like JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon can make recession predictions until they're blue in the face, but their guidance will remain just that — an economic forecast.

That's because, in the United States, the economy isn't broadly and officially considered to be in a recession until a relatively unknown group of eight economists says so.
The economists, who serve together as the Business Cycle Dating Committee, are hand-selected by and work under the umbrella of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonprofit organization. They have no predetermined meeting dates and their deliberations are private. There are no fixed term dates and the final determination of who gets to serve on the committee is made by one man: NBER president and Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist James Poterba.

[cityhantam]

[revealer]

To compare the economical strength and market conditions of various countries, I would always look at this table that shows me the 5-year CDS value of various countries. The stronger the economy , the less will be the value of 5-year CDS value or the less premium I would have to pay for buying the country's Government bond.



https://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.com/202...onger.html

[cityhantam]

To compare the economical strength and market conditions of various countries,  I would always look at this table that shows me the 5-year CDS value of various countries.  The stronger the economy the less is the value of 5-year CDS value or the less premium I would have to pay for buying the country's Government bond.

5 years ah?

Why not 50 years?

Or 100 years?

Or 1000 years?

Was there war in Ukraine 5 years ago?   

[teaserteam]

A greenhorn always asks a greenhorn question.  Go ask yr China broker to give U a 100-year CDS,  they will probably ask U to fly kites.  If u cannot understand,  read up and ask nicely lah

[Odessy]

This morning CNA Avery Hong briefly topic on FED having misread inflation

[cityhantam]

This morning CNA Avery Hong briefly topic on FED having misread inflation

FED should have consulted teaserteam lor! 

[teaserteam]

This morning CNA Avery Hong briefly topic on FED having misread inflation

Many people also said the same because Fed Chairman has changed his stand about inflation several times.    People can say they are better but don't think they can do better.

[cityhantam]

Last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen did something unusual for a Washington policy maker: She admitted that she’d made a mistake. In an interview with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer about the U.S.’s persistently high inflation rate, Yellen said, of her predictions last year that prices would stay under control, “I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take.”

That she was. In March 2021, when inflation hawks were arguing that the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan was going to overheat the economy, Yellen called the risk of inflation “small” and “manageable,” and a couple of months later said, “I don’t anticipate that inflation is going to be a problem.” She wasn’t alone. For much of 2021, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that he thought inflation would be “transitory,” and even as inflation rose above 6 percent, the Fed kept interest rates near zero. (Its first interest-rate hike was not until March 2022.)

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...ll/661237/

[cityhantam]

连续两季度GDP断崖式负增长，美国经济陷入衰退！
.
.

[grotesqueness]

The Next Global Depression Is Coming

[Teeth53]

We are riding on China's growth.

USA and Europe are in trouble.

Is Biden Really Responsible For High Oil Prices?


The selloff has been so deep that prices have crashed all the way along the futures curve. For instance, Brent for December 2023 shed 8.8% on Tuesday to trade at its lowest level since March, almost as much as nearby prices.

[victortan]

If market is always 6 months ahead of the real economy, like economist and market player use to say, then we are near the bottom.

It is time to BUYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cityhantam]

纽约，寺庙被盗，偷吃贡果，快餐15块，狗皮膏药70块，流浪汉睡桥洞，曼哈顿唐人街
.
.

[cityhantam]

通货膨胀，一枚核弹引爆美国政治经济大分裂！
.
.

[kokee]

china both  internal & external debt super huge.
plus ton china people want to run road & transfer their asset & money out of china, almost all investment & fund also want to run road fast.
no money to pay back now, crisis will explode!!





7.12 【中國三十萬億債務違約？】三大政策銀行債券遭美資大量拋售，揭發國開行將被制裁？四萬億美元債隨時冇得還！

comie can bark whatever BS & lies they like here.
recession or not, important is whose debt is going to burst.
Look at US, USD so strong, Dow still ok,20% below peak, SSE is almost 50% below peak, china property crashing hard, bond kena dump, so many china bonds defaulted due to no USD.
whose debt is higher? US can keep hike rate at super steep, if china no debt, why they dare not hike rate? china or HK once hike rate, debt burst in property & all the rest, including CNH, HKD unpeg & ton more!!
same to inflation, hike rate to fight. so what happen to china inflation today without hiking rate, obvious!!
dont waste my time!!

[Omnipresent88]

纽约，寺庙被盗，偷吃贡果，快餐15块，狗皮膏药70块，流浪汉睡桥洞，曼哈顿唐人街
.
.

Kokee nonsense 

Who let the slave kokee out woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof woof https://media.tenor.com/images/b867eb602.../tenor.gif

[cityhantam]

【頭條開講】通膨難民來了!美食物銀行爆人潮!紐西蘭慘到吃蝸牛!英國起司加電子鎖防竊!購買力冰封?亞馬遜砍自有品牌!@頭條開講 20220715
.
.

[Teeth53]

Is Biden Really Responsible For High Oil Prices?

The selloff has been so deep that prices have crashed all the way along the futures curve. For instance, Brent for December 2023 shed 8.8% on Tuesday to trade at its lowest level since March, almost as much as nearby prices.

President Joe Biden has been criticized over his perceived hostility against the oil industry. (YES😫)

His opponents say that his policies are hurting American oil producers. (101%😩)

Many companies have seen their values Finna  since Biden has been in office.💔

[Teeth53]

China GDP data is more trusthworthy than US CPI data. US used unconventional way to economy.

Now US and Joe is facing a 30T huge debt and US is currently using a conventional way(Rate Hike)to tackle high inflation.