[Tee tiong huat]

Since military coup on Feb. 1, 2021, the revolution began with peaceful demonstrations has escalated into a full-blown armed struggle, now about to end its fourth year. The landscape of Myanmar’s conflict has dramatically changed since then. Coup makers’ State Administration Council (SAC) has been losing territory to various ethnic groups and resistance forces.

Myanmar’s civilian National Unity Govt (NUG) recently claimed, in a military progress report, that its People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) & allied ethnic revolutionary organizations (EROs) had effective control of more than half of country by end of 2024. The NUG said 44% of the country’s townships are under those groups’ full control while 24& are highly contested & influenced by resistance forces, means less that 1/3 of country remains under the control of the SAC.

To be fair, majority of the territory described by NUG is in the hands of EROs. Although EROs have gained significant ground, many are still focusing on their ethnic causes—most importantly, gaining a form of autonomy. But larger question remains: With their increasing influence over newly formed resistance groups & respect they have earned from large swaths of Myanmar, will they play a role in changing the central govt? Will they able to move beyond a traditionally narrow ethnocentric approach? What decisive role do ethnic armed players want to play? In short, who dares to be the kingmaker for a future democratic Myanmar?.
https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-...maker.html