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17-12-2021, 11:39 AM
My assessment is the LDP's dynamic is currently very unstable and disunited.
In the good old days when there was manageable economic and geopolitical pressure, Japan was pretty much implementing a system of rotational faction of elite politics within the LDP under the guise of a pseudo democracy.
Now the situation has become very critical. Economic wise the country is still stuck in a 30 year stagnation with no signs of getting out. Meanwhile many competing high tech precision manufacturing countries such as China, Korea, Germany and France have been growing albeit at different pace exerting even more economic pressure on Japan and chipping away its competitive edge.
At the same time, China-US rivalry has escalated and Japan finds itself stuck between the two. On one hand is traditional ally US who, in theory, provides national security to Japan but is gradually asking for more and more, at the opposite side is China which Japan understands is where its future and prosperity lies but this comes with significant security risks as a result of unresolved WW2 issues.
Faced with such dual pressure and how to bring Japan out of its conundrum, the ruling elites are split on what action to take. One faction led by Shinzo Abe believes in just doing what they have been doing since WW2, hang along with US and try to get out of its economic malaise through continuous money printing. The other faction represented by Taro Kano believe in pivoting to a cooperative stance with China while gradually managing US-Japan relationship to a cordial but distant level.
In the face of the irreconcilable split, the LDP eventually settled on Fumio Kishida, a guy who is "middle of the road" in almost all his policies. That's why if you observe all major domestic and foreign policies made so far by him, it's always a centrist approach of averaging viewpoints from both factions.
Abe has the advantage of being the biggest faction within LDP, Taro has the advantage of a much higher nation wide popularity. Eventually Fumio is a guy that everyone reluctantly supported as PM because he is harmless, much like Joe Biden. Expect this internal LDP factional infighting to get even more intense in the coming years, Abe is just the most prominent one thrash talking on mass media, but the real action is actually happening in the elite Japanese Tea and Sake houses under the company of performing Geishas.
In the good old days when there was manageable economic and geopolitical pressure, Japan was pretty much implementing a system of rotational faction of elite politics within the LDP under the guise of a pseudo democracy.
Now the situation has become very critical. Economic wise the country is still stuck in a 30 year stagnation with no signs of getting out. Meanwhile many competing high tech precision manufacturing countries such as China, Korea, Germany and France have been growing albeit at different pace exerting even more economic pressure on Japan and chipping away its competitive edge.
At the same time, China-US rivalry has escalated and Japan finds itself stuck between the two. On one hand is traditional ally US who, in theory, provides national security to Japan but is gradually asking for more and more, at the opposite side is China which Japan understands is where its future and prosperity lies but this comes with significant security risks as a result of unresolved WW2 issues.
Faced with such dual pressure and how to bring Japan out of its conundrum, the ruling elites are split on what action to take. One faction led by Shinzo Abe believes in just doing what they have been doing since WW2, hang along with US and try to get out of its economic malaise through continuous money printing. The other faction represented by Taro Kano believe in pivoting to a cooperative stance with China while gradually managing US-Japan relationship to a cordial but distant level.
In the face of the irreconcilable split, the LDP eventually settled on Fumio Kishida, a guy who is "middle of the road" in almost all his policies. That's why if you observe all major domestic and foreign policies made so far by him, it's always a centrist approach of averaging viewpoints from both factions.
Abe has the advantage of being the biggest faction within LDP, Taro has the advantage of a much higher nation wide popularity. Eventually Fumio is a guy that everyone reluctantly supported as PM because he is harmless, much like Joe Biden. Expect this internal LDP factional infighting to get even more intense in the coming years, Abe is just the most prominent one thrash talking on mass media, but the real action is actually happening in the elite Japanese Tea and Sake houses under the company of performing Geishas.
