[maxsanic]

At the end of the day the heart of the issue is really a 3-cornered fight between US, EU and RU. Sadly nobody gives a hoot what Ukraine thinks or even if it wants to join NATO, it's just an inanimate prop that is brought on or off the stage depending on the needs of the show.

US is trying to suppress RU and EU by creating conflict at Ukraine in order to disrupt Nord Stream II energy network and slap down any attempts by EU to set up a European Army that is independent of the US led NATO. The ideal outcome for US is for Ukraine to drag on forever in limbo and always get threatened by RU but yet no war and thus no real commitment needed by US. This allows the US to tighten its grip on the Europeans in military and foreign affairs.

EU is trying to cooperate with RU on energy and BRI and yet still wants to keep the US handy as a security bargaining chip against the Russians. The ideal outcome for EU is to continue to produce US friendly rhetoric and RU friendly commercial dealings while slowly working behind the scenes to wean EU off from NATO. They want US out of Europe but yet not too far away to bolster their position.

RU on the other hand wants to work with EU, prevent NATO from expanding and achieve an optically strong outcome to maintain domestic stability. Thus the RU ideal outcome is continue cooperation with EU on energy and BRI / economic matters while carving something out of Ukraine to show they are not to be trifled with.

Regardless of the eventual outcome, one thing is for sure - Ukraine is 101% screwed. There are no permutations in which the outcome is even neutral to Ukraine, all of them are different shades of disaster. This is what happens when a poor and shiithole country tries to smart alec and thinks it can eat from three sides.