[sgbuffett]

Look at this chart....every time oil crosses $100 it quickly peaks and price collapse. Oil is above $100 now likely it has peaked and will decline rapidly
 There may be intermittent surges due to war but it will just sink fast after that.

Why? Let me explain.



Remember a few years ago to fight shale producers, Saudi refuse to lower quota and just let price of oil collapse from $100 to $40.

The Saudi oil production is $5 per barrel and shale is $60. Using an off shore rig is $70. Canadian tar sand is $60 and so on.

There is plenty of oil just that different sources produce it at different cost.

But once it crosses $100 almost all source of oil is profitable
The producer will sell oil futures to lock in price and start production and this increases supply. Often the other side of the trade is a speculator. Later the trader or speculator will need sell his position as he does not take delivery

The extra capacity causes oil prices to collapse