[sgbuffett]

Observed on 30 Sep something unusual on US market. "Good stocks" were sold off today.


Speculative stocks that have ready collapsed were stable or rose


It's as if investors sold everything until they have nothing left to sell so they sold their quality names like Microsoft and Amazon.

Early in the stock down turn, someone said it is not over until Apple and Microsoft gets dumped.

Looking at where valuaations are and the whole economic situation. I don't think sell off is over. Even if market bounce it is temporary.



Here is my reasoning

1. Nasdaq is about 10% higher than at peak before pandemic.

2. The economic situation then and interest rate environment was far better.

3. There will be earnings revision downwards this is a certainty. Look at Nike anniuncment. Nike has fallen 59% this yr but the stock is not cheap.

4. The bottom will fall out if US enters a recession.

Although people say US has fallen so much bear in mind it is from very high levels when Fed pumped up the bubble.... like 2000.

If nasdaq get below 10K it starts to look more reasonable...but it won't be cheap until much lower.

Other countries like India, Indonesia and Vietnam are going to see 5-8% growth stable economies with room for long term growth appear more attractive.

The last 10yrs USA only performed because of favorable monetary policies. All that has changed.


Indonesia etf vs S&P500