[Manthink]

In most of CSIS’s simulations, the two forward carriers either sank to the bottom of the Pacific Ocean within the first four days of fighting, or suffered so much damage that their skippers had no choice but to sail out of the war zone ... for good.

(In one startling) simulation, the U.S. fleet lost four carriers, hundreds of carrier borne aircraft and presumably thousands—if not tens of thousands—of sailors. With dwindling options for relieving the embattled island, Taiwan was on track to lose by the time the war-game organizers called it.