[Tee tiong huat]

Urban centres war-torn parts of Myanmar used to be largely controlled by military, even after February 2021 coup that triggered armed resistance against junta rule rising rapidly gaving victories made over the past month by a powerful alliance of three ethnic armed groups in Myanmar’s north, as well as the parallel offensives by other rebel forces they spurred, have shattered this veneer of invincibility.

Time for Myanmar’s neighbours to recalibrate approach as regime loses ground. Myanmar's military stares at defeat as rebel forces go on the offensive. The rebels appear to hold all the initiative on the battlefield in Myanmar, says a Lowy Institute researcher.

With the People’s Defence Force and the Communist Party of Burma’s People’s Liberation Army stepping up their fight against the Tatmadaw. In the past month, different rebel forces have overrun junta outposts and captured large swathes of land, including several towns and border crossings with India and China.

But two main factors will answer the question about how this latest fighting might shape the outcome of the battle against the junta: First, whether the rebel forces can maintain the pace of the offensive; second, how effectively the Tatmadaw can regroup with a counteroffensive.

There are several indicators suggesting that the rebels hold advantages on the battlefield. Given the junta’s brutality, the rebels can expect to draw on popular support. The local population is critical in any insurgency campaign, as it can lead to tangible support such as intelligence, materials and personnel.
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LITTLE LOVE FOR MYANMAR'S MILITARY GENERALS

Since the February 2021 coup, the junta has imprisoned nearly 20,000 people and caused nearly 1 million people to be internally displaced. The junta’s four-cuts strategy to stifle opposition terrorises the civilian population. To maintain power, the junta has unleashed its air force to strike against civilian targets, so there is little love for the generals.

Since October, three ethnic armed organisations under the banner of the Three Brotherhood Alliance have launched a coordinated offensive against the ruling military junta. Codenamed Operation 1027, the campaign has included the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Arakan Army, targeting Tatmadaw’s controlled areas and military outposts.