[Tee tiong huat]

A Chronicle of Collapse: How the Tide Turned Against Myanmar’s Once Mighty Military. Initially, the armed revolution against the junta popularly known as the Spring Revolution was underestimated by the Myanmar military, its sympathizers and political accomplices.

Similarly, the international community and neighboring countries may have publicly expressed support for democratization but they believed Myanmar’s military regime was too strong to fall.
The military and its supporters laughed at the shadow National Unity Govt (NUG) when it declared a defensive war against the regime on September 7, 2021. Generals boasted they would crush resistance stronghold of Sagaing Region within six months. Resistance battle cries were ridiculed.

Two and a half years later, the Spring Revolution is gaining momentum as it captures major bases and entire towns across the country. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party, Chinland Defense Force, and All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF) have allied with the NUG and its People’s Defense Force (PDF) armed wing.

The Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) have also started to engage with the democratic forces in central Myanmar, including the NUG and PDF. Other revolutionary groups that have emerged in central Myanmar such as the People’s Liberation Army, Burma People’s Liberation Army, and Student Armed Force are also cooperating with ethnic armed organizations.

Resistance groups have mushroomed in central Myanmar as well as in Karenni (Kayah), Chin, Kachin and Shan states, launching the armed revolt with whatever weapons were available. The major challenge facing the Spring Revolution has been funding and procurement of weapons. It therefore took time for resistance groups in central Myanmar to start fighting the regime.

Ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) have no trust in the country’s military. They are well acquainted with its divide-and-rule policy – to compromise and make temporary peace with one enemy so it can focus on crushing the other. They were aware the military would come for them if and when it could contain the resistance in central Myanmar. Hence, seasoned EAOs supported revolutionary forces while building themselves up and waiting for opportunities.
https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-...itary.html