03-04-2024, 04:56 PM
Preventing A Cycle of War in Myanmar’s Post-Junta Power Vacuum is lower becoming increasingly relevant as Tatmadaw withers before attacks by armed revolutionary groups. And as Myanmar’s civil wars change conditions on the ground, this is an important thing to remember.
The battle to defeat the Tatmadaw may end quickly (or not), but lasting peace will only come when the country’s complicated political and revolutionary conditions permit. In Myanmar, at least six or seven militaries will claim victory if the Tatmadaw collapses.
The Brotherhood Alliance and Kachin, Chin, Karenni, Karen, and Rakhine ERO/EAOs have all won unprecedented victories since October last year. Meanwhile, thousands of Myanmar regime soldiers have defected, signaling declining morale and doubts about junta chief Min Aung Hlaing’s capacity to maintain control.
At the same time, the military victories have prompted analysts perched in foreign think tanks and embassies to start describing new governing arrangements. Optimism over the Myanmar military’s impending collapse and the revolution’s unity is common. The optimists in particular jump to speculation about what political systems.
https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-...acuum.html
The battle to defeat the Tatmadaw may end quickly (or not), but lasting peace will only come when the country’s complicated political and revolutionary conditions permit. In Myanmar, at least six or seven militaries will claim victory if the Tatmadaw collapses.
The Brotherhood Alliance and Kachin, Chin, Karenni, Karen, and Rakhine ERO/EAOs have all won unprecedented victories since October last year. Meanwhile, thousands of Myanmar regime soldiers have defected, signaling declining morale and doubts about junta chief Min Aung Hlaing’s capacity to maintain control.
At the same time, the military victories have prompted analysts perched in foreign think tanks and embassies to start describing new governing arrangements. Optimism over the Myanmar military’s impending collapse and the revolution’s unity is common. The optimists in particular jump to speculation about what political systems.
https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-...acuum.html