[Teeth53]

China vs U.S. 

https://youtu.be/blUbHAxk5jw

Oil prices dipped by 5% early on Friday, with the U.S. benchmark slumping to the lowest level since January, on the back of heightened concerns about slowing economic growth and recessions coming.

[Teeth53]

Oil prices dipped by 5% early on Friday, with the U.S. benchmark slumping to the lowest level since January, on the back of heightened concerns about slowing economic growth and recessions coming.

Now....Wall St Week Ahead Investors wonder when vicious sell-off in U.S. stocks will end?. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/w...022-09-23/

[Teeth53]

Now....Wall St Week Ahead Investors wonder when vicious sell-off in U.S. stocks will end?. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/w...022-09-23/

U.S........
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/turbul...n-escalate

[sgbuffett]

On 19 Aug  2022I said the Nasdaq deadcat bounce is over since then it has dropped sharply.

How far down can it go.

[sgbuffett]

The Nasdaq and Dow has started another dead cat bounce.

This one should end after 10% rise...using the model.

After that the Fed hikes will come. Another round of pain.

[victortan]

The Nasdaq and Dow has started another dead cat bounce.

This one should end after 10% rise...using the model.

After that the Fed hikes will come. Another round of pain.

timimg mkt always back fire, i think this method is better, buying the dip on several tranches.

https://www.dividendtitan.com/98-chance-...source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=98-chance-of-a-recession

[sgbuffett]

After 1.5months of continuous selling market stage a 2 day bounce due in part to a correction in US 10yr yield and weak job market. I posted this will happen.

You notice oil price also jumped and so did commodities. All this will limit the climb of stocks because inflation comes back. ...main problem of US stocks being too expensive comes back once Nasdaq goes up.

Remember the phases. First interest rate hike. Then earnings recession then the actual recession.

We have not completed the interest rate hike yet with 2 more coming. The Fed will not stop . The 2 coming hikes are a certainty. The 10yr yield only fell because some rushed in to get the 4% yield these investors maybe looking at the rate cuts coming after 2023 to lock in the yield....



Earnings will be poorer than expected due to high inflation. S&P500 will be projected to have flat earnings for 2023.. this not only limit the rise ....long term investors should wait for better earnings yield.

[toothpick]

When everything or everyone sees the trend, it’s too late.

[sgbuffett]

The real bottom comes when investors discount all the problems ahead. We know we are not at the bottom of US market because many things have not happened yet.

Today Carnival cruise jump 7% off a deep selloff.
From my experience looking at at numerous  companies like those in O&G and commodity  that have gone bust, Carnival Cruise is likely to be insolvent in the coming  months.

Recently it refinanced its debt at 10% interest. It has $35B in debt and negative cashflow so it has to keep borrowing more and more .it can do so when interest rates are low but the fiancial model is broken. But investors are still coming to buy each time it dips.

Investors need to give up on such no hope companies ..only when they do so we get a real bottom...and not a price action trading bottom we see now.

The industry as a whole grew on debt ...mainly because Cruise ships are expensive to build and they always need to invest in more costly ones to compete and phase out older ships. Cost of operations are high and cashflow is negative even in good times. This industry is headed for trouble as it is build on ability to borrow.

[Zannn]

After 1.5months of continuous selling market stage a 2 day bounce due in part to a correction in US 10yr yield and weak job market. I posted this will happen.

You notice oil price also jumped and so did commodities. All this will limit the climb of stocks because inflation comes back. ...main problem of US stocks being too expensive comes back once Nasdaq goes up.

Remember the phases. First interest rate hike. Then earnings recession then the actual recession.

We have not completed the interest rate hike yet with 2 more coming. The Fed will not stop . The 2 coming hikes are a certainty. The 10yr yield only fell because some rushed in to get the 4% yield these investors maybe looking at the rate cuts coming after 2023 to lock in the yield....



Earnings will be poorer than expected due to high inflation. S&P500 will be projected to have flat earnings for 2023.. this not only limit the rise ....long term investors should wait for better earnings yield.

This chart is using what platform?

[victortan]

The Nasdaq and Dow has started another dead cat bounce.

This one should end after 10% rise...using the model.

After that the Fed hikes will come. Another round of pain.

very tough to call,, i remember march 2020 and once in 1990..many pessimistic but nkt dont care continue to head up. and many left chasing later.

There is no way to know as i google when it is a dead cat till it is over..

But a definition is that it should not be higher than the previous high , but if one will to buy right after it go pass previous high it could till reverse and will be caught buying higher.

another point i the vol, as again, vol i see chart cannot tell also on a daily to daily basic especially as this point of time when there is fear.

In another word no one can time the the market,

But only those who know value will buy,

But for tech n super growth stock, there is no way u can buy at low PE. U will end up chase when mkt return.
Look at TSLA for example.

so best is to acc slowly, buy in tranches,,, i like Zs and Net.. i will be acc a few..wish me luck.