[sgbuffett]

Despite drama on the stock market here is the inflation number to ponder.

From last month prices rose 0.1% ....if continues like this for 12 months...the annualised inflation is 1.2%. It is actually stabilised.

Market was looking for a fall because oil prices material prices  fall ....fall will signal Fed can slow its rate hikes...hence there was disappointment and last 4 days of gains wiped out in one session.

Put things into perspective the US market is high based on historic measures and is supported by low rates. Even if Fed hike to 3% the rate the same as the level to which rates were cut in 2000 triggering the dot com bubble. So rates are very low even with the coming hikes.

Fed dare not implement its QT on schedule because it will cause a recession for sure. 

Once Fed hike toward 4% US stocks have to come down another 20%. 

There may be all sorts of twist and turns along the way. And this may stretch out over 8 or 9 months. A 20% fall will take the S&P500 to 3100 level. 

I don't see the same move ir problems for regional markets Malaysia and Indonesia are beneficiaries of oil and commodities recovery .