[forum456]

1. So far it has only undo the bubble caused by FED pump. Fed unpump only midway. QT only started in earnest this month.

2. Based on this we should get to 3200.

3. But if there is both an earnings recession and recession we should see the S&P500 fall below 3000 to 2500.

4. The 3rd point is not a given because Fed can just stop and slow hikes once it sees recession coming and inflation subsiding.

5. However without (3) happening I will not step up buying as a long term investor as the future returns will remain low and valuations unattractive.

Just some of my thoughts and planning process.
I diary my thinking so I don't panic or get itchy and buy. Many movements are just short term. 5% here, 6% there. But in a larger perspective and longer term much of these won't matter.

you are a genius !
Powell said no rate cut in 2023.