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Coming engagement around Tokmak will extensive and brutal, city is encircled extensive & defensive fortifications. Satellite imagery ability of Ukrainian units to continue advancing south and capturing additional territory. Our assessment shows there is a possibility Ukrainian advances towards Melitopol will stall.

d) Ukrainian forces captured a Russian fortified position south of Robotyne known as “Boot”. Consequently, “Boot” sit on topographically elevated area and is considered the lynchpin of the Russian defensive lines in the area.

e) Images shared by Ukraine also show a multitude of western-made tanks and armoured vehicles kept in reserve

f) Ukrainian diverted a significant amount of effort and manpower towards Verbove, east of Robotyne.

Robotyne-Tokmak Axis: The area between Robotyne and Tokmak contains several active fires, assumed to the result of artillery strikes and counter-battery operations. Directly to the south of visible map, lies Tokmak and defensive fortifications. Captured using SWIR, image shows high reflections heat signatures.

Tokmak axis battle Fig. 1 Key Judgement-2: It is highly unlikely that Ukraine will capture Melitopol after advancing beyond Tokmak in the next 3 mths. a) Ukrainian forces pushed farther into Russian territory on 4 Sept in the direction of Verbove, increasing the likelihood that they would attempt to flank Russian defensive lines north of Tokmak.

b) Satellite imagery 31 August shows extensive fortifications running from Tokmak to Ocheretuvate

c) The same imagery also indicates an additional layer of dragoon tooth-style trenches running parallel to the first trench system.

d) Ukrainian forces appear to be targeting armoured columns or supply convoys at the flanks of the trench system

e) Imagery around Tarasivka shows intensive shelling of the settlement, indicating the presence of Russian forces in large concentrations.