Obama warns some of Israel's actions in Gaza may backfire
#6

(24-10-2023, 01:24 PM)sogo Wrote:  because israel are scared. gaza is 6 times of bakmut. in bakmut russian died 20-30k and ukraine 70-80k

Yes very likely they are scared, but it's not just casualty numbers.

What they are really scared of is:
 
  • US’s ability to support them militarily especially with the ongoing war in Ukraine

  • US’s willingness to support them now with increasing domestic opposition and concern over its other Middle East allies who are increasingly drifting out of orbit during a time of intense contest for influence with China in this region.

  • Deteriorating support for them across the world. Many other countries including the Europeans, Chinese, Indians etc. could take this opportunity to make things difficult for them through non-military means.

  • Possibility of Iran, Saudi & Gulf Council Nations, Lebanon, Egypt and Syria all joining in to whack them while they are stuck in a war with Palestine. In the past this risk was low as these guys had their own internal conflicts and showed deference to US. Now they have made peace and are increasingly not giving face to US.

  • Russia could act as a spoiler in the whole game by either supplying arms to the Middle East or increasing its offence against the Ukrainians thereby splitting up precious little resources the US has left.

  • Israeli Army just like most armed forces around the world appears to be ill-equipped to deal with modern asymmetric warfare. There is a likelihood they could end up like Russia i.e. looks good on paper, but eventually get stuck in trench wars for a long period.

  • If they get mired in Gaza without a clear victory fast, internal economic pressure will pile up and soon there will be social unrest in Tel Aviv.

As a rule of thumb, the more thrash talking they employ the worse their own assessment of the situation really is. Holds true for both US and Israel. If they were confident of being in an advantageous position, the talking will be minimal and the actions will be hard pounding. Like President Regan said "Speak softly with a big stick".
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Messages In This Thread
Obama warns some of Israel's actions in Gaza may backfire - by theold - 24-10-2023, 10:48 AM
RE: Obama warns some of Israel's actions in Gaza may backfire - by Oyk - 24-10-2023, 10:54 AM
RE: Obama warns some of Israel's actions in Gaza may backfire - by maxsanic - 24-10-2023, 11:55 AM
RE: Obama warns some of Israel's actions in Gaza may backfire - by sogo - 24-10-2023, 01:24 PM
RE: Obama warns some of Israel's actions in Gaza may backfire - by maxsanic - 24-10-2023, 03:38 PM
RE: Obama warns some of Israel's actions in Gaza may backfire - by Clyde - 24-10-2023, 01:26 PM

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