[maxsanic]

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-a...l-election

The big picture is Taiwanese elections are inconsequential in the grand scheme of things, the only reason why they are being accorded a disproportionate amount of news space is journalists wanting to create stories that attract attention.

Having said that if the DPP does manage to hold on to power, then this will likely be a mildly positive development for China over the medium to longer term. In terms of ideology all three parties are the same, i.e. status quo, recognition of ROC and three Nos.

Over the past two decades, the DPP has shown itself to be much better at leading Taiwanese mainstream political opinion compared to the KMT who have nothing to offer to the populace other than betting everything on the DPP screwing up. That is why the DPP always seem to have better momentum despite countless corruption scandals and administrative screw ups.

The onus is on China to create the necessary conditions to push DPP into deeper blue zone from their current light blue pretend to be green politics. This will largely hinge on its wider global strategic competition with the US. If and when they are able to continue the ascension momentum, the DPP and William are much better collaboration partners to effect change management on Taiwanese and ensure an orderly transition towards reunification. KMT is simply too lethargic, fragmented and incompetent to perform the task ahead.

I feel many pro-China supporters are taking things too personally, i.e. they dislike the DPP and William as a person because of their politics instead of seeing these guys as who they are - scumbags who will do and say whatever as long as they can get scraps of power and wealth. KMT and DPP are the same, their members only happen to stand on opposite sides because they think each side can offers them better prospects. 

The true DPP ideologues who believe in Taiwanese independence have all either retired or died, the true KMT reunification idealists have also all been marginalized. The remaining people in both parties are simply opportunists, so for China it probably benefits them if at least the opportunist in power is competent.

For people who think radical change is not possible, I present to them both William Lai and Ko Wenje. Both started out as hardcore deep green dudes. When Ko saw an opportunity appearing between blue and green, he instantly did a wardrobe change and sold himself as a centrist white. Ditto for William who brandished his pro-independence extremist views in the early days and now ridiculously tries to convince everyone he is a ROC defender and light blue guy who does not want to push for independence because Taiwan is already "independent" as ROC.

All these three guys need is a gentle push from the PRC to "change" their political beliefs. The onus is on the PRC to handle its geopolitical expansion steadily and continue its push of US influence out of East Asia and provide the impetus for these gentlemen to change their wardrobe.