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27-04-2024, 11:52 AM
The Russians Are Coming, Rushing Reinforcements Into Their Ocheretyne Breakthrough.
For The Ukrainians, The Situation Is Desperate. A Ukrainian retreat would be risky.
Apr 26, 2024. The Six days battle after breaking through Ukrainian lines west of Avdiivka, the Russian brigades and regiments are slowly widening their salient—a five-mile-deep knife wound plunging into Ukrainian territory, its point lodged in the village of Ocheretyne.
The situation is desperate for Ukrainian soldiers, exhausted Ukrainian brigades in their area, (is this a foregone conclusion) for Ukrainians. (Will they lose a few villages around the Ocheretyne axis?.)
The real risk, however, for Ukrainian Tavriya Operational-Strategic Group. — The command responsible for forces west of Adviivka — will have no choice but to cut its losses, then retreat a few miles to the west and reconsolidate along a new defensive line to threading and defend their north to southwest of Ocheretyne.
So that retreat could surrender tens of square miles of territory and force hundreds of civilians to flee or resign themselves to living under brutal occupation. Worse, the retreat—if poorly executed—would represent an opportunity for Russians to redouble their local attacks & achieve a 2nd, 3rd or 4th breakthrough that is like a chain reaction, trigger a wider Ukrainian collapse.
Retreating is extremely risky even when it’s the best option, which is why disciplined armies plan for retrograde action at least as carefully as they plan for offensive action. “Retreats are most difficult operations for any commander and force,”
Historian Andrew O. G. Young wrote in Armies in Retreat: Chaos, Cohesion and Consequences.
(That is how the Russians broke the Ukrainian line west of Avdiivka last weekend is the subject of heated debate in Kyiv and across the 600-mile front line of Russia’s 26-month wider war on Ukraine.)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/20...d309687223
For The Ukrainians, The Situation Is Desperate. A Ukrainian retreat would be risky.
Apr 26, 2024. The Six days battle after breaking through Ukrainian lines west of Avdiivka, the Russian brigades and regiments are slowly widening their salient—a five-mile-deep knife wound plunging into Ukrainian territory, its point lodged in the village of Ocheretyne.
The situation is desperate for Ukrainian soldiers, exhausted Ukrainian brigades in their area, (is this a foregone conclusion) for Ukrainians. (Will they lose a few villages around the Ocheretyne axis?.)
The real risk, however, for Ukrainian Tavriya Operational-Strategic Group. — The command responsible for forces west of Adviivka — will have no choice but to cut its losses, then retreat a few miles to the west and reconsolidate along a new defensive line to threading and defend their north to southwest of Ocheretyne.
So that retreat could surrender tens of square miles of territory and force hundreds of civilians to flee or resign themselves to living under brutal occupation. Worse, the retreat—if poorly executed—would represent an opportunity for Russians to redouble their local attacks & achieve a 2nd, 3rd or 4th breakthrough that is like a chain reaction, trigger a wider Ukrainian collapse.
Retreating is extremely risky even when it’s the best option, which is why disciplined armies plan for retrograde action at least as carefully as they plan for offensive action. “Retreats are most difficult operations for any commander and force,”
Historian Andrew O. G. Young wrote in Armies in Retreat: Chaos, Cohesion and Consequences.
(That is how the Russians broke the Ukrainian line west of Avdiivka last weekend is the subject of heated debate in Kyiv and across the 600-mile front line of Russia’s 26-month wider war on Ukraine.)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/20...d309687223
