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05-05-2024, 11:48 PM
Continue from above & follow from here.A...all the stories about the Russians supposedly being on the brink of great success leave out a hard-headed reckoning of the state of the Russian Army.
OPINION: Ukraine Doing Much Better on the Front Than It’s Being Given Credit For Contrary to some of the reporting by leading Western news outlets, Ukraine is not wavering, but holding up and inflicting heavy losses on the Russian invaders.
NATO US Biden Putin Lukashenko Tanks Bakhmut Budanov. Ukraine is not losing but holding its own
I have tried to add a dose of common sense to restrain much of the doom and gloom that has infected the reporting of the war in Ukraine.
We had been hearing quite dramatic stories of Russian breakthroughs and Ukrainian forces seemingly on the brink of collapse. A lot of this seems to come from those who want the Russian army to perform well, either to reinforce early analysis or because they would like to see a deal forced on Ukraine to allow Putin to declare a victory.
The reality is far less dramatic… The Russian advances have been limited, there has been no sign of an ability to exploit, and assuming ammunition gets to Ukraine in the numbers promised, the Russians should have more difficulty advancing in the future, not less.
The situation on the front line
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I thought I would try and show what has changed (or really not changed) in the battle line over the last week and then talk about what might actually be the most important strategic story of the last four months (which is not what you think).
Russia and Ukraine were engaging in a race against each other. Russia was trying to take territory before US started flowing into Ukraine (while the Ukrainians were having to fight with a major shortage of supplies). Ukraine, on the other hand, was racing to try and get access to those supplies and get them to the front.
Now, how much aid has actually reached the front is not easy to know – it might not be much as of yet. However, whether US aid has reached the front in bulk or not, the Russian advances have slowed and for the last few days hardly progressed at all.
Everyone Must Commit to Preserving and Strengthening Media Freedom
OTHER TOPICS OF INTEREST
Everyone Must Commit to Preserving and Strengthening Media Freedom
For the sake of democracy and society, we need journalists that can keep holding power to account and unveil injustices – especially in times of crisis.
By Thursday May 2, the Russian forces had made very small advances – and crucially of the easiest kind. They made no attempt to exploit their supposed breakthrough into Ocheretyne, but actually just tried to consolidate the tiny advance. They certainly either lacked the ability to will to try an exploitation type of advance.
Since Thursday there has been no advance of any note. The situation at Chasiv Yar has witnessed even less change.
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So, what we have seen in the last week is no successful attempt by the assumed to be powerful and improving Russian army to make a successful advance against a Ukrainian army which was supposedly in dire straits.
Why is this?
Well, it’s probably not because the Ukrainian Army is in great shape. The Ukrainian army is presently underarmed and almost certainly undermanned and exhausted. It will probably have to make some further small retreats in the future. What it’s down to is a combination of three factors. The continuing advantage of defensive firepower, the continual overrating of Russian offensive capacity, and a temporary panic about the Ukrainian army which had some evidence – but was significantly overblown.
All the stories about the Russians supposedly being on the brink of great success leave out a hard-headed reckoning of the state of the Russian Army.
Ukraine has somethings really is indecisive, only made very small advances for large losses. And on Russian losses really have been large too. We have UK intelligence figure above, which covers the whole war, but it does seem that Russian losses are trending upwards. In taking Avdiivka alone, Russian casualties were estimated at 17,000 after a few months of fighting. Certainly figures for mths now have had the Russians losing 1,000 a day on average – sometimes more for weeks at a time.
If headlines of the last few mths were regularly: “Russians Advance One to few K/m With Heavy Losses in Soldiers and Vehicles,” war seem very different. And this brings out the other real story. Even a weakened Ukraine without ammunition can take a terrible toll on the attacker. Maybe, just maybe, people will realize the true story of the last few months is that attacking, even with major advantages, is a mugs game. It will be extremely expensive and destructive for the attacking force, and it will show little strategic benefit.
This has now been seen for well over year, (since Bakhmut) it real story of the war for now. The side that learns it, and does its best to establish ranged dominance, will be the side that comes out on top in the end.
Ukraine were smart, (& very much hope that it better work) will double down on defensive strategy in 2024. Getter Russians attack, attack, attack. Greet them with now better supplied forces, hopefully in better entrenchments.
At the same time, work on winning the ranged war to roll up the Russian Armed forces from the rear. It’s actually been the story of much of modern war – but it’s one people need to hear again and again. Ukraine has much to do it needs to conscript wisely, it needs fortify lines, needs to only attack selectively when it can, & needs to develop & be given as much ranged capacity as possible. But story of last few months confirms that this is the way to win the war.
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/32137
OPINION: Ukraine Doing Much Better on the Front Than It’s Being Given Credit For Contrary to some of the reporting by leading Western news outlets, Ukraine is not wavering, but holding up and inflicting heavy losses on the Russian invaders.
NATO US Biden Putin Lukashenko Tanks Bakhmut Budanov. Ukraine is not losing but holding its own
I have tried to add a dose of common sense to restrain much of the doom and gloom that has infected the reporting of the war in Ukraine.
We had been hearing quite dramatic stories of Russian breakthroughs and Ukrainian forces seemingly on the brink of collapse. A lot of this seems to come from those who want the Russian army to perform well, either to reinforce early analysis or because they would like to see a deal forced on Ukraine to allow Putin to declare a victory.
The reality is far less dramatic… The Russian advances have been limited, there has been no sign of an ability to exploit, and assuming ammunition gets to Ukraine in the numbers promised, the Russians should have more difficulty advancing in the future, not less.
The situation on the front line
Advertisement
I thought I would try and show what has changed (or really not changed) in the battle line over the last week and then talk about what might actually be the most important strategic story of the last four months (which is not what you think).
Russia and Ukraine were engaging in a race against each other. Russia was trying to take territory before US started flowing into Ukraine (while the Ukrainians were having to fight with a major shortage of supplies). Ukraine, on the other hand, was racing to try and get access to those supplies and get them to the front.
Now, how much aid has actually reached the front is not easy to know – it might not be much as of yet. However, whether US aid has reached the front in bulk or not, the Russian advances have slowed and for the last few days hardly progressed at all.
Everyone Must Commit to Preserving and Strengthening Media Freedom
OTHER TOPICS OF INTEREST
Everyone Must Commit to Preserving and Strengthening Media Freedom
For the sake of democracy and society, we need journalists that can keep holding power to account and unveil injustices – especially in times of crisis.
By Thursday May 2, the Russian forces had made very small advances – and crucially of the easiest kind. They made no attempt to exploit their supposed breakthrough into Ocheretyne, but actually just tried to consolidate the tiny advance. They certainly either lacked the ability to will to try an exploitation type of advance.
Since Thursday there has been no advance of any note. The situation at Chasiv Yar has witnessed even less change.
Advertisement
So, what we have seen in the last week is no successful attempt by the assumed to be powerful and improving Russian army to make a successful advance against a Ukrainian army which was supposedly in dire straits.
Why is this?
Well, it’s probably not because the Ukrainian Army is in great shape. The Ukrainian army is presently underarmed and almost certainly undermanned and exhausted. It will probably have to make some further small retreats in the future. What it’s down to is a combination of three factors. The continuing advantage of defensive firepower, the continual overrating of Russian offensive capacity, and a temporary panic about the Ukrainian army which had some evidence – but was significantly overblown.
All the stories about the Russians supposedly being on the brink of great success leave out a hard-headed reckoning of the state of the Russian Army.
Ukraine has somethings really is indecisive, only made very small advances for large losses. And on Russian losses really have been large too. We have UK intelligence figure above, which covers the whole war, but it does seem that Russian losses are trending upwards. In taking Avdiivka alone, Russian casualties were estimated at 17,000 after a few months of fighting. Certainly figures for mths now have had the Russians losing 1,000 a day on average – sometimes more for weeks at a time.
If headlines of the last few mths were regularly: “Russians Advance One to few K/m With Heavy Losses in Soldiers and Vehicles,” war seem very different. And this brings out the other real story. Even a weakened Ukraine without ammunition can take a terrible toll on the attacker. Maybe, just maybe, people will realize the true story of the last few months is that attacking, even with major advantages, is a mugs game. It will be extremely expensive and destructive for the attacking force, and it will show little strategic benefit.
This has now been seen for well over year, (since Bakhmut) it real story of the war for now. The side that learns it, and does its best to establish ranged dominance, will be the side that comes out on top in the end.
Ukraine were smart, (& very much hope that it better work) will double down on defensive strategy in 2024. Getter Russians attack, attack, attack. Greet them with now better supplied forces, hopefully in better entrenchments.
At the same time, work on winning the ranged war to roll up the Russian Armed forces from the rear. It’s actually been the story of much of modern war – but it’s one people need to hear again and again. Ukraine has much to do it needs to conscript wisely, it needs fortify lines, needs to only attack selectively when it can, & needs to develop & be given as much ranged capacity as possible. But story of last few months confirms that this is the way to win the war.
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/32137
