HSI persistently weak and unable to sustain rallies...just keep going down

(11-08-2024, 08:38 AM)Zannn Wrote:  Sgbuffett, CPI is seasonal that’s why it did not “spike” up but close now more than 100 pts lower from yr call to ‘spike up’

I maintain HSI will spike up from the level I stated 17150.
It is good entry point for those who want to go long for next few months.

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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(14-08-2024, 01:15 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:  I maintain HSI will spike up from the level I stated 17150.
It is good entry point for those who want to go long for next few months.

Dude yr call to spike up is that day itself le. Cannot anyhow 10yrs later up u also correct. Like yr usual US posting, only 830pm any other time is not yr predictionSmile Past few days u don’t state direction, now US cheong then u say Hsi will go up is it?
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Cannon behind horse or horse behind cannon, can make money is good cannon
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Short sellers play big ahead of Tencent and Alibaba results

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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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(14-08-2024, 04:35 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  Short sellers play big ahead of Tencent and Alibaba results

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Thise who shorted Tencent ahead of earnings are taking extreme risk
Expectations have been very low
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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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I have not done any trade on HSI for some time just tracking the information

The data coming out shows the econkmy stabilising at a slow growth rate.

Thjs borderline results means tha some stimulus will.give momentum to the economy yo swing upwards.untul end of this year
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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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(14-08-2024, 01:15 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:  I maintain HSI will spike up from the level I stated 17150.
It is good entry point for those who want to go long for next few months.

Spike up?
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This fall in Tencent stock does not make sense after it's better than expected  results.

A bit strange..  .perhaps a red flag or abnormal trading.
Watch closely to see what happens.
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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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Alibaba is down more than other stocks ahead of its results.

It was performing more strongly than other stocks until yesterday.

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Expectations for the stock is quite low ....single digit growth and flat earnings.

The company has been doing share buy backs so it does not make any sense if the company is doing badly for them to do this ...if earnings are bad then why do buybacks ...the stock will just head lower.

...anyway another stock to watch as ut is announcing tonight.

I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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(15-08-2024, 02:52 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  This fall in Tencent stock does not make sense after it's better than expected  results.

A bit strange..  .perhaps a red flag or abnormal trading.
Watch closely to see what happens.
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Apple Tax issue la
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This is expectations for Alibaba earnings.
If it beat it may not go up....

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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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(15-08-2024, 03:02 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  Alibaba is down more than other stocks ahead of its results.

It was performing more strongly than other stocks until yesterday.

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Expectations for the stock is quite low ....single digit growth and flat earnings.

The company has been doing share buy backs so it does not make any sense if the company is doing badly for them to do this ...if earnings are bad then why do buybacks ...the stock will just head lower.

...anyway another stock to watch as ut is announcing tonight.

Good analysis by sgbuffet, breaking down clearly why company do buyback and infer that result will be good and beat. Go see the result now
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Every time the HK market open up it gets sold off in the morning session and half of the afternoon session before some partial recovery..this is repeated many times. In last 2 weeks. The HSI has not been able to build.on early gains


Let's see if this tradjng pattern is broken today and.whether HSI can sustain gains

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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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(16-08-2024, 09:33 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:  Every time the HK market open up it gets sold off in the morning session and half of the afternoon session before some partial recovery..this is repeated many times. In last 2 weeks. The HSI has not been able to build.on early gains


Let's see if this tradjng pattern is broken today and.whether HSI can sustain gains

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5 day chart ....HSTech spike up in morning and get sold off
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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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I just long HSI today 17320.
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(16-08-2024, 09:33 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:  Every time the HK market open up it gets sold off in the morning session and half of the afternoon session before some partial recovery..this is repeated many times. In last 2 weeks. The HSI has not been able to build.on early gains


Let's see if this tradjng pattern is broken today and.whether HSI can sustain gains

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Down is because Hsi is weak. Up noon session is becos US will rally. This pattern will change once Us rally done
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(16-08-2024, 09:42 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:  5 day chart ....HSTech spike up in morning and get sold off
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This tells u your “HK will spike up sharply” is wrong. It is cushion by world rally
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(16-08-2024, 09:47 AM)Sharexchange Wrote:  I just long HSI today 17320.
Surprising....
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HSI has made its way up closing on 18K level

A break above 18K will mark possibility ot a down trend reversal. Watch closely. Bidu, Meituan, Xiaomi results to eb out soon.

Based on all released results it shows stabilisation of the tech and industrial sector. Property is still sinking.

Reminds me of US 2012-2016 period where stocks were cheap and investors were waiting for signs of recovery.

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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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No changes fundamentally. HSI must therefore close above 17,700 b4 it can take off.
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(20-08-2024, 08:29 AM)revealer Wrote:  No changes fundamentally. HSI must therefore close above 17,700 b4 it can take off.

Cannot close above 17,700. Gone case if break below 17,200
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(21-08-2024, 11:26 AM)revealer Wrote:  Cannot close above 17,700.  Gone case if break below 17,200

So far the twisting of policy to rescue the falling economy has not worked well. Presently, China is said to be in a liquidity trap in which the credit demand and economic growth is not recovering when they lower the interest rate. Japan had a similar problem in 1997-1998 and they lost decades of economic growth.

Therefore, it is very unlikely that we will see HSI and SSE picking up their momentum to rise if the liquidity trap is still persists.


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(14-08-2024, 01:15 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:  I maintain HSI will spike up from the level I stated 17150.
It is good entry point for those who want to go long for next few months.

HSI now at 17600
I expect an attempt to run up towards 18K and test the resistance.


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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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This 2 days is a major movement as it goes into 秋分..
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(22-08-2024, 03:27 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  HSI now at 17600
I expect an attempt to run up towards 18K and test the resistance.


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Baidu n netease crash.
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Just another trading day ..  

Some losses among HK listed tech stocks. Netease and Baidu sold off after their earnings  The earnings are so so near  expectations and these stocks  Given the low valuations and cash held by these stocks one would think the expectations are very low already so I am rather surprised they went down so much. 

Ping An results is pretty good but the stock move up only a little. 

Other than tha HSI held on to most of its gains in last 2 weeks. Lots of flushing out of short term and medium term traders who chased the rally that starter in Feb thjs yr  ...when the bulk of the rally become undone most of them got out. 

That was the 4th  bear market rally ...

In a perverse way it's good that most investors have given up on China and HK ....I look through most of the earnings report and feel lots of hidden strength in the China econkmy is under appreciated. All these may come to play as the US economy weakens and Fed cuts rates.  ....the high dividend yields of Chinese stocks become harder to ignore.
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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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(23-08-2024, 02:57 PM)sgbuffett Wrote:  Just another trading day ..  

Some losses among HK listed tech stocks. Netease and Baidu sold off after their earnings  The earnings are so so near  expectations and these stocks  Given the low valuations and cash held by these stocks one would think the expectations are very low already so I am rather surprised they went down so much. 

Ping An results is pretty good but the stock move up only a little. 

Other than tha HSI held on to most of its gains in last 2 weeks. Lots of flushing out of short term and medium term traders who chased the rally that starter in Feb thjs yr  ...when the bulk of the rally become undone most of them got out. 

That was the 4th  bear market rally ...

In a perverse way it's good that most investors have given up on China and HK ....I look through most of the earnings report and feel lots of hidden strength in the China econkmy is under appreciated. All these may come to play as the US economy weakens and Fed cuts rates.  ....the high dividend yields of Chinese stocks become harder to ignore.
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Before this Sgbuffett tot u said u look their all and all and China economy is goner. Very suddenly u look thru again and saw there is so many hidden strength in economy? Miracle?
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(14-08-2024, 01:15 AM)sgbuffett Wrote:  I maintain HSI will spike up from the level I stated 17150.
It is good entry point for those who want to go long for next few months.

I expect HSI to test key 18K level .l tomorrow.

While the momentum is moderate I detect a lack of sellers with buying concentrated on dividend stocks like China Mobile and Petrol China. As well as major bank.

Last few days HK based property stocks also move up.

All these compensated for falls in e commerce stocks like JD and Alibaba. 

Of all the rallies that ended and went down since the bear market started. This rally is  perhaps the most "quiet" rally because no analysts came outvto say "worst is over now China/HK stocks can buy:.

Maybe it's true...the saying that when the real rally comes nobody will believe and miss it until it has run up alot.

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Current rally is not powered by the popular tech stocks but by china banks and HK based property stocks

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I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.
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China is back from mao era? That’s gd news
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18K above hit tonight and tomorrow likely...
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