In a crisis, one do not have luxury of good information and situation is full of uncertainty necessiting trade offs and imperfect solutions. Whatever govt does some people will oppose because of this and that. I am mindful of this.But I strongly disagree with the current direction our govt is taking based on my analysis of the facts
1.Like many I thought the vaccine will end this crisis but the virus is able to mutate and vaccines turned out to be less effective that thought with 80% loss of effectiveness after 6 months
2. There are 2 strategies available to us. The TW, HK vs Western US, UK, Israel strategy. The western country citizens are rebellious and have certain disregard for govt rules so at some point they have no choice but to placate the population by opening up or the citizens will disobey the rules anyway resulting in protests etc. So it is understandable why they tend towards the opening up strategy. Singapore does not have to follow. We have the option to implementing the TW HK strategy and watch UK US do their experiment. If it works then we followl later.
3. There are many risks of the UK US strategy.
a.) The virus is still mutating so a new variant that completely defeat the vaccine is possible. b.) As the vaccine effectiveness fade, you need boosters which again it's less certain in terms of effectiveness and safety - FDA only approve for age 65+ given uncertainty. c) The assumption that deaths will be limited rest on tenuous belief the vaccine is effective and no breakthrough variant emerge
If you look at US data, the deaths are now heading towards levels near the previous peak where problems with hospital resources . It is not suppressed to manageable levels at all.
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4. At some point a U turn is inevitable and you are back to square 1 after many lives are lost
5. The UK US strategy, appear to be an experiment doing something and hoping for the best. A decision made by politicians under pressure from a populace whose behavior has resulted in many deaths -refusal to wear masks, refusal to restrict activity. What has happened in thesebcountries is a tragedy with US having >600k covid deaths. Why are we following the strategy of countries that have fumbled so badly when we have choice?
6. Even if their strategy works we can follow it after it is proven and not lose much. The economic gains are thus far marginal as trourists are too afraid to come even if we open up.
7. The risk we are taking with the lives of people far outweigh the marginal gains. We have the option of watching other countries embark on the experiment first then doing so later. It would be a wiser move to do this
8. What we are doing now is really flawed. It carries all the mistakes of decision making a) being impatient when you have time b) taking big risks with small gains c) not learning from other's mistakes d) not revising decisions when situation change and new information emerge e) not evaluating all options available in a wise calculated manner.
9. There is nothing seriously wrong with TW HK strategy and little downside. Once they got their case number to zero demestic economic activity can be normalized while borders remain tightly controled. With our strategy the rising cases will result in fear and people stay home, the tourist don't come and hospital fill up and we need to U turn resulting negative returns for the price we pay in lives lost.
10. In conclusion I believe we have gone down the wrong pathdue to poor decision making of our leaders.
I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.