SG Talk

(07-03-2025, 04:42 PM)victortan Wrote: [ -> ]Because u short lah. 

Can u pls be Ho sim a bit. Now I m down on stock n crypto. 

If u long I will invite u to my wedding next month. Pls long byd n Tencent my favourite girl friend.

I thot you already 60+ with grown up children.  Second marriage har? Vietcong or ATB?

Hs Tech tried to rally after falling below 6000....the rally got stopped at 6000 then it dived to 5900.

Best case I see is 5900 support holding but HS Tech will stay below 6000 for some time. If 5900 breaks best to sell and get out or short ....if you want to buy you should wait for a more decisive break above 6000.

There is no more catalyst for HS Tech upside ...best case is sideways and worst case is down. So you should be short or close all long positions.

(10-03-2025, 11:05 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]Hs Tech tried to rally after falling below 6000....the rally got stopped at 6000 then it dived to 5900.

Best case I see is 5900 support holding but HS Tech will stay below 6000 for some time. If 5900 breaks best to sell and get out or short ....if you want to buy you should wait for a more decisive break above 6000.

There is no more catalyst for HS Tech upside ...best case is sideways and worst case is down. So you should be short or close all long positions.

5900 broke and HS tech fell to lows of 5645 today. Pro traders shorted once 5900 broken.

The extremely hjgh volatility is due to very crowded short term  trades in HS Tech.

Has little to do with fundamentals of Chinese tech which remains good.

HS Tech is now 5700. I expect an attempt to go above 6000 in next few trading days and HS Tech tl stay abovs 6000 from then onwards ....for next leg of this rally.

HS Tech vs US$ Index

Sharp rise to the peak corelates to fall in US$
US$ zoom down HS Tech zoom up

When US$ stop dropping, HS Tech stop rising


While correlation is not causation  movmenet of the US dollar is likely linked to flow of funds in HK stocks the favorite now bejng HS Tech stoxks.

With donald trump as president the US dollar will be under constant pressure to go down which will help sustain the HS Tech rally.
.
The the recent rise of US$ is to short covering...is over.

US$ will resume falling causing HS tech iindex  to  rise quickly  up above 6000 soon.....

Pro traders would buy in anticipation of the rise.

(13-03-2025, 09:53 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]HS Tech vs US$ Index

Sharp rise to the peak corelates to fall in US$
US$ zoom down HS Tech zoom up

When US$ stop dropping, HS Tech stop rising


While correlation is not causation  movmenet of the US dollar is likely linked to flow of funds in HK stocks the favorite now bejng HS Tech stoxks.

With donald trump as president the US dollar will be under constant pressure to go down which will help sustain the HS Tech rally.
.
The the recent rise of US$ is to short covering...is over.

US$ will resume falling causing HS tech iindex  to  rise quickly  up above 6000 soon.....

Pro traders would buy in anticipation of the rise.

Open and fall fast. Pros lose $$

(14-03-2025, 09:36 AM)Zannn Wrote: [ -> ]Open and fall fast. Pros lose $$

Please double check if HS Tech is up or down from their buying price now.

Pros are not so easilh shaken down by temporal volatility  caused by leverage instruments rebalancing esp in the morning. Keep your eye kn bigger time frame and stronger influencing factors.

Better don’t short

HS Tech will rebound after opening selling.
Pro traders will add to their long positions now.

(17-03-2025, 10:16 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]HS Tech will rebound after opening selling.
Pro traders will add to their long positions now.

As expected HS Tech rebound....now it is back back to friday close

Lets look at the chart now.


You see a long stretch of low volatility where HS Tech stays falt while HSI gained more than one %.

While platform stocks like Tencent, JD and Alibaba moved up semi con stocks move down.

This tells us the HS Tech will rally one more time.today if semi con stocks start rising. This happened around 10 min ago when semi con stocks stop falling and start moving.up.

I expect another leg up for HS Tech before the end of today's trading.

HS Tech now flat but will start moving up soon.


Pro traders took advantage of sideways movmenet to accumulate.

Once accumulation is done it will have momentum to move UP

(17-03-2025, 02:59 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]HS Tech now flat but will start moving up soon.


Pro traders took advantage of sideways movmenet to accumulate.

Once accumulation is done it will have momentum to move UP

As expected HS. Tech moved up.

HSTech broke the 6000 level ....US ADRs of HK atech stocks racing up.

Flip prata yet?

Don’t be like that one trick pony Handbag Loo from 1M65. Everyday shout US markets down and totally missing out on the Chinese markets.

I guess this is what tunnel vision must be like

(18-03-2025, 07:53 AM)p1acebo Wrote: [ -> ]Flip prata yet?

Don’t be like that one trick pony Handbag Loo from 1M65. Everyday shout US markets down and totally missing out on the Chinese markets. 

I guess this is what tunnel vision must be like

What do you suggest i do?

(18-03-2025, 07:57 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]What do you suggest i do?

All in Chinese markets 

Not all in China market that is suicide have to see market direction.

This year China markets should be good. I no sell button since Dec 2024

(18-03-2025, 08:02 AM)p1acebo Wrote: [ -> ]All in Chinese markets 

I rememeber many times in this last 2-3 yrs when the China HK market sank you KPKB that i shorted. If you are all jn you would have sit through gut wrenching drawdowns not knowing when the rally would come.

All in or not all in depends on your risk management.
We all want to maximise profits and minimise the downside.

HS Tech stocks will gap up...Alibaba up 5%.

This creates a dilemma for yhose who miiss the boat.

Pros like i said took advantage of sideways action yesterday to increase long positions ahead of the leg up above 6000.

Dont ask me what you should do because i already said what you should do last few days.

(18-03-2025, 09:25 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]I rememeber many times in this last 2-3 yrs when the China HK market sank you KPKB that i shorted. If you are all jn you would have sit through gut wrenching drawdowns not knowing when the rally would come.

All in or not all in depends on your risk management.
We all want to maximise profits and minimise the downside.

Nope I dipped my toes in Oct, and only went in big time Chinese counters in Nov and Dec 2024 

Before that I was deep in the US markets.  You can see my various calls through the months late last year 

(13-03-2025, 09:53 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]HS Tech vs US$ Index

Sharp rise to the peak corelates to fall in US$
US$ zoom down HS Tech zoom up

When US$ stop dropping, HS Tech stop rising


While correlation is not causation  movmenet of the US dollar is likely linked to flow of funds in HK stocks the favorite now bejng HS Tech stoxks.

With donald trump as president the US dollar will be under constant pressure to go down which will help sustain the HS Tech rally.
.
The the recent rise of US$ is to short covering...is over.

US$ will resume falling causing HS tech iindex  to  rise quickly  up above 6000 soon.....

Pro traders would buy in anticipation of the rise.

HS Tech is now 6100 as expected it risen 300+pts or 5% in two days to clear the 6000 level from my earlier posting.

Also explained in the earlier post above ..the HS Tech/HSI is now linked to the fall jn USD.  Sharp rise today correlated with the USD falljng more sharply.

USD index below:


On a separate thread i explained what is driving this fall in USD as part of Trump's economic  advisor's "overall strategy" for trade...so it is not going to end soon.

Geo politically, economically, and in relation to market we are in new territory.

I also explained once we cross the 6000 this time, be begin the new leg up. ...and it looks like a "long leg" driven by multiple factors including Trump's politics and uncertainty over US economy. Suddenly Gold and Asia looks like safe haven. Trump and his secretary Bassent said transition and pain for US economy.



Also thrown into the mix is Fed cutting rates and falllng 2 & 10yr bond yields.

I see all these factors creating the push for thr "leg up".

(18-03-2025, 04:33 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]HS Tech is now 6100 as expected it risen 300+pts or 5% in two days to clear the 6000 level from my earlier posting.

Also explained in the earlier post above ..the HS Tech/HSI is now linked to the fall jn USD.  Sharp rise today correlated with the USD falljng more sharply.

USD index below:


On a separate thread i explained what is driving this fall in USD as part of Trump's economic  advisor's "overall strategy" for trade...so it is not going to end soon.

Geo politically, economically, and in relation to market we are in new territory.

I also explained once we cross the 6000 this time, be begin the new leg up. ...and it looks like a "long leg" driven by multiple factors including Trump's politics and uncertainty over US economy. Suddenly Gold and Asia looks like safe haven. Trump and his secretary Bassent said transition and pain for US economy.



Also thrown into the mix is Fed cutting rates and falllng 2 & 10yr bond yields.

I see all these factors creating the push for thr "leg up".

Good analysis must give u credit

With interest rates heading down must buy SReits like Master Leong.

He is so much smarter than that one trick pony Handbag Loo of 1M65 infamy

ML maybe correct but market hard too predict.

Handbag Loo is a market reporter only nothing much from him.

(18-03-2025, 09:28 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]HS Tech stocks will gap up...Alibaba up 5%.

This creates a dilemma for yhose who miiss the boat.

Pros like i said took advantage of sideways action yesterday to increase long positions ahead of the leg up above 6000.

Dont ask me what you should do because i already said what you should do last few days.

Recent movement showed that market are taking profit at any good results. This also mean that just one bad result from big China co May crash hs tech.


Staying above 6k narrative for long time like Sgbuffett said is not likely to play out

(20-03-2025, 10:50 AM)Zannn Wrote: [ -> ]Recent movement showed that market are taking profit at any good results. This also mean that just one bad result from big China co May crash hs tech.


Staying above 6k narrative for long time like Sgbuffett said is not likely to play out

There are many traders waiting to sell after good results for an extra boost. It has been like this for 3yrs. I have data going back quite far. It says nothing about the phase ghe market is in. So it is wrong to use this to jnterpret thaf market is weak or strong.

No 2026 No sell!

(20-03-2025, 11:02 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]There are many traders waiting to sell after good results for an extra boost. It has been like this for 3yrs. I have data going back quite far. It says nothing about the phase ghe market is in. So it is wrong to use this to jnterpret thaf market is weak or strong.

Market is strong but traders trade based on sentiment at the current.

Yesterday sharp selloff due to USD recovery.
Watch if HS Tech can recover back to 6000.

HSI should be more stable because it has both tech and high dividend stocks. ...these value stocks seem to be holding up.

As in all trades always execute your exit strategy with discipline

(21-03-2025, 09:36 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]Yesterday sharp selloff due to USD recovery.
Watch if HS Tech can recover  back to 6000.

HSI should be more stable because it has both tech and high dividend stocks. ...these value stocks seem to be holding up.

As in all trades always execute your exit strategy with discipline

The USD rose theoughout yesterday trading crushing the HK/China markets