SG Talk

(31-07-2024, 02:29 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]Saying you will solve the problem is the first step only.
Solving the problem is next step.

Anyway I thought the housing problem is solvable by copying Singapore govt takeover of the private bus system. Make top 20 developers govt owned.and controlled by doing a debt for equity swap. Then centralise the management of these to  e a public housing service provided  by the govt. ...aka China HDB.

Since RMB is internally circulated they can print $$ to do this at a time when there is deflation so it won't cause inflation...and won't cause the govt a single cent.

By nationalising most of residential housing it completely solves one of the major problems of western societies.

Singapore HDB has already shown the way.

Sgbuffett are u going to short Hsi? Pls advice

Wah another brilliant idea from ahbutt for a country of 200m graduates all of them are clueless

(31-07-2024, 01:04 PM)revealer Wrote: [ -> ]Nothing much changed fundamentally. HSI dropped yesterday and hit the support the support the 2nd time. It would reverse if it cannot get to clear the resistance around 17,500.  The more time it hit the support,  the likely will b the chance to break the support.  Unless there’s a fundermental change in physical policy,  likely HSI will fall again.

Gone case. HSI broke strong support today. Not looking good. Can go below 16,000

(25-07-2024, 01:03 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]I am covering my short positions NOW as a falling dollar is not compatible with falling HSI/China markets.

I need to backoff to observe  and understand what is going on.

As of now i have no more open short positions

Sgbuffett come out short hsi

(06-08-2024, 11:14 AM)Zannn Wrote: [ -> ]Sgbuffett come out short hsi

Why must I short HSI when there are so many trades available in the recent hyper volatile  environment.

Why China market did not fall as badly as other markets on Monday.

It only means most of the players must have given up and sitting on the sideline awaiting 4 next opportunity to enter the market. This will happen only when China has resolve the debt problems in the private and Corporate sectors.

(06-08-2024, 04:54 PM)Ty sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]Why China market did not fall as badly as other markets on Monday.

So time to buy??? 

I don’t think so. Wait for another few round of selling.

Good chance for HSI to test 16.000.

W formation has appeared.....i iwill always trade the W....always

(07-08-2024, 06:25 PM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]W formation has appeared.....i iwill always trade the W....always

Morning dude, since u have definitely trade and long at the ‘W’ top, what do u expect next?

Find this piece of news very interesting...I think .many investors may have missed it

We are told China is in a property slump and this will go on for long time. There are ghost cities and people pay money for homes not delivered. ..and more homes than people etc.

The above gives narrative which we hear often seems to say its a bad idea to buy a home in China prices will just keep going down. ...it's in a crisis.

But read the article below existing home sales is hitting record levels. What does this tell us? Demand is there after prices drop by 20-30%. This goes against the widely believed narrative that prices will keep sliding down.  What happened is buyers are afraid to buy from developers who may not deliver the homes. But at the current prices there is actually demand.

This is a process called price discovery in a free.market. so long as govt don't interfere prices will drop to a level where there is demand and the sector can stabilise and start normalising.

China main problem is debt...local govt debt needs to do something drastic to solve.


https://www.scmp.com/business/china-busi...-new-flats

(08-08-2024, 08:39 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]Find this piece of news very interesting...I think .many investors may have missed it

We are told China is in a property slump and this will go on for long time. There are ghost cities and people pay money for homes not delivered. ..and more homes than people etc.

The above gives narrative which we hear often seems to say its a bad idea to buy a home in China prices will just keep going down. ...it's in a crisis.

But read the article below existing home sales is hitting record levels. What does this tell us? Demand is there after prices drop by 20-30%. This goes against the widely believed narrative that prices will keep sliding down.  What happened is buyers are afraid to buy from developers who may not deliver the homes. But at the current prices there is actually demand.

This is a process called price discovery in a free.market. so long as govt don't interfere prices will drop to a level where there is demand and the sector can stabilise and start normalising.

China main problem is debt...local govt debt needs to do something drastic to solve.


https://www.scmp.com/business/china-busi...-new-flats

Very interesting but can u share more on this W long trade u took above 16950 and how it will pan out in todays Hsi trading? Very interesting to learn this W from u

HSI nears 17K resistance. It has to break though convincingly to reverse its current medium term range bound 

(08-08-2024, 11:13 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]HSI nears 17K resistance. It has to break though convincingly to reverse its current medium term range bound 

On Thurs morning, yesterday I posted the above as the day dragged on the HSI was shorted repeatedly at 17K level causing it to close at 16890. Lots of short positions build up at 17000 level
. 
After hours gopd US job data cause HSI to push above 17000.
during US trading 

Tomorrow likely to be very big up day as short sellers panic cover. 

Those who have been waiting for a BIG up day...it will finally come tomorrow.

Unless there is a change fundamentally like HK or China suddenly announces large sum of stimulus or able to solve its private sector or Corporate debt, it is very unlikely tt the stock market will go any higher.

(09-08-2024, 08:15 AM)revealer Wrote: [ -> ]Unless there is a change fundamentally like HK or China suddenly announces large sum of stimulus or able to solve its private sector or Corporate debt,  it is very unlikely tt the stock market will go any higher.

If the market chiong up due to stimulus like US, then I'm very worry. Means a bubble had formed.

(09-08-2024, 08:17 AM)winbig Wrote: [ -> ]If the market chiong up due to stimulus like US, then I'm very worry. Means a bubble had formed. 

Why worry when there is this kind of performance?  Just get out before the bubble burst,  you gain more than 30%.  Stock bubble is where one can earn most if one is skilled in TA, Even today, one still have plenty of time to get out of the US market.

(09-08-2024, 12:05 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]On Thurs morning, yesterday I posted the above as the day dragged on the HSI was shorted repeatedly at 17K level causing it to close at 16890. Lots of short positions build up at 17000 level
. 
After hours gopd US job data cause HSI to push above 17000.
during US trading 

Tomorrow likely to be very big up day as short sellers panic cover. 

Those who have been waiting for a BIG up day...it will finally come tomorrow.

Big up?? From the time u make this post, index is now lower even with better than expected China CPI.

OMG the market spike in the morning due to China positive CPI numbers.

Then some beginner traders went in to short. Wha a mistake.

This market is about to spkek up sharply....

(09-08-2024, 10:25 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]OMG the market spike in the morning due to China positive CPI numbers.

Then some beginner traders went in to short. Wha a mistake.

This market is about to spkek up sharply....

Very strong momentum up. 

(09-08-2024, 10:25 AM)sgbuffett Wrote: [ -> ]OMG the market spike in the morning due to China positive CPI numbers.

Then some beginner traders went in to short. Wha a mistake.

This market is about to spkek up sharply....

Despite all good news from US and even China itself, it close lower than where Sgbuffett say will rally sharply from, specifically today. 

Sgbuffett, how do u see today’s Hsi performance?

Recent China economic data CPI, Servive sector PMI and exports all show recovery.

That is why I have stopped shorting the HSI.

However for a sustained rally the recovery has to be sustainable.

China needs to deal with local govt debt real estate drag.

The higher CPI figure in July is just seasonal.

(10-08-2024, 06:35 PM)revealer Wrote: [ -> ]The higher CPI figure in July is just seasonal.

The "delfationary" nunber a few months ago was also due to pork prices but investors sold down.

(09-08-2024, 04:16 PM)Zannn Wrote: [ -> ]Despite all good news from US and even China itself, it close lower than where Sgbuffett say will rally sharply from, specifically today. 

Sgbuffett, how do u see today’s Hsi performance?

Sgbuffett, CPI is seasonal that’s why it did not “spike” up but close now more than 100 pts lower from yr call to ‘spike up’

Japan's interest rate hikes for the 2nd time in less than 6 months caused Yen's carry trade and global stock market volatility. The global market volatility is not over yet until the Yen's carry trade is unwinded. likely that HSI will continue to slide unless there is a fundamental shift in the economic policy in HK or China and HSI can cheong above 17,600.

Come see Sgbuffet flip prata

Of course the markets will go up. They have been heavily oversold and shorted. But not because of sgbuffet’s up and down predictions.

You go ask a monkey flip a coin and he will probably do better than Sgbuffet

great news..wait long long to recover.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...epage-asia